Water Update - 30 April 2024

 

Welcome to the latest Elders Water Market Update for the week beginning 30 April 2024.

Allocations

Allocations are as follows: 

 Zone  Allocation 1 year ago  +/- per cent 

Murrumbidgee

   

High Security

100 pc100 pcSame

General Security

100 pc100 pcSame

NSW Murray (Zones 10 & 11)

   

 High Security

100 pc100 pcSame

General Security

110 pc110 pcSame

Lachlan

   

High Security

100 pc100 pcSame

General Security

14 pc115 pc- 101 pc

Vic Murray (Zones 6 & 7)

   

High Reliability

100 pc100 pcSame

Low Reliability

100 pc100 pcSame

SA Murray
 
100 pc100 pcSame

Murrumbidgee Deep Groundwater

100 pc100 pcSame

Lower Murray Deep Groundwater

100 pc100 pcSame

Lower Lachlan Groundwater

100 pc100 pcSame

2024/2025 OUTLOOKS

On 15 April, the NSW Department of Industry and Environment has released updated 2024/25 season outlooks for the Murrumbidgee and Murray Darling systems. Full statements can be viewed by clicking on the following links, but in short, outlooks for opening allocations are as follows:

Murrumbidgee

  • 95 pc allocation for high security entitlements
  • 15 pc  allocation for general security entitlements (an increase of 10 pc from the figure given in the last outlook)
  • 100 pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
  • Full allocations for supplementary (including Lowbidgee) access licences
  • Full general security carryover (estimated to be around 28 pc) is expected to be available.

NSW Murray

  • 97 pc allocation for high security entitlements
  • 30 pc allocation for general security entitlements (no change from the figure given in the last outlook)
  • 100 pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
  • Full allocations for supplementary access licences
  • Full general security carryover (estimated to be around 43 pc) is expected to be available. 

NSW Lower Darling

  • 100 pc allocation for high security entitlements
  • 100 pc allocation for general security entitlements
  • 100 pc allocation for towns, domestic and stock access licences
  • Full allocations for supplementary access licences
  • Carryover in accounts will be replaced by full allocations on 1 July 2023.

Trade Restrictions

MURRUMBIDGEE/MURRAY IVT
Is CLOSED for Murrumbidgee to Murray trade, but OPEN for Murray to Murrumbidgee trade with a balance of 94.2 gigalitres (GL).

BARMAH CHOKE 
Is CLOSED.

Storages

According to the Bureau of Meterorology (BOM), storage levels are currently as follows:

  Current 1 Day  7 Days  30 Days  1 Year 
Murrumbidgee 67.6 pcNIL- 0.3 pc- 2.9 pc- 17.0 pc
Blowering66.0 pc NIL- 0.4 pc+ 0.8 pc- 19.6 pc
Burrinjuck70.0 pc- 0.2 pc- 3.8 pc- 9.3 pc+ 9.0 pc
Murray76.7 pcNIL- 0.5 pc- 3.1 pc- 12.9 pc
Hume60.7 pc- 0.2 pc - 1.5 pc- 5.9 pc- 29.5 pc
Dartmouth94.2 pc- 0.1 pc- 0.1 pc- 0.7 pc- 1.6 pc
Lachlan 94.7 pcNIL- 0.2 pc
- 2.0 pc- 3.7 pc
Wyangala94.5 pcNIL- 0.2 pc+ 1.9 pc- 3.6 pc

Current Temporary Market

 Zone Buyers  Sellers  Last Trade 
Murrumbidgee$15$20$15
NSW Murray 10 (Above Choke)$16$20$19
NSW Murray 11 (Below Choke)$20$20$20
Vic Murray 6 (Above Choke)$10$15$15
Vic Murray 7 (Above Choke)$20$20$20
SA Murray$20$20$20
Lachaln $40$50$50
Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer Zone 1---
Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer Zone 2---
Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer Zone 3---
Lower Murray Groundwater---
Lower Lachlan Groundwater ---

Current Permanent Market 

Indicative pricing is as follows:

 Zone  Price per mL 
Murrumbidgee 
High Security$8,300 to $8,400
General Security$2,400 to $2,500
Supplementary$800 to $850
NSW Murray Above Choke (Zone 10) 
High Security$7,100 to $7,200
General Security$2,000 to $2,100
NSW Murray Below Choke (Zone 11) 
High Security$8,550 to $8,650
General Security$2,600 to $2,700
VIC Murray Above Choke (Zone 6) 
High Security$4,600 to $4,700
General Security$700 to $800
VIC Murray Below Choke (Zone 7) 
High Security$7,300 to $7,500
General Security$1,750 to $1,850
SA Murray Class 3$7,000 to $7,500
Murrumbidgee Deep Aquifer (zone dependent)$3,800 to $4,500
Lachlan (Upper & Lower) 
High Security$1,500 to $1,600
General Security$4,500 to $4,550
Lower Murray Deep Groundwater$2,700 to $2,800
Lower Lachlan Groundwater$3,500 to $4,000

Current Forward Market 

Indicative pricing is as follows, assuming a 1 November 2024 delivery date:

ZonePrice
Murrumbidgee
$135
Murray Above Choke (NSW Zone 10 and Vic Zone 6)
$110
Murray Below Choke (NSW Zone 11, Vic Zone 7 and SA)
$135

Current Carryover Market 

Indicative pricing is as follows, assuming risk of spill falling to the licence holder:

ZonePrice
Murrumbidgee
$120
Murray Above Choke (NSW Zone 10 and Vic Zone 6)
$100
Murray Below Choke (NSW Zone 11, Vic Zone 7 and SA)
$120

TRADE CLOSURES

In accordance with the relevant Valley Water Sharing Plans, please note the following Season Close dates for water allocation trading: 

  • Murrumbidgee, NSW Murray & Lower Darling Regulated Interstate – 11:59PM 30 April 2024
  • Murrumbidgee Regulated Intravalley – 11:59PM 30 June 2024
  • All other Regulated Water, Groundwater and Unregulated Water - 11:59PM 30 June 2024
  • Coleambally Irrigation – 28 June 2024
  • Murray Irrigation – external trades 5PM 24 June 2024 and internal trades 11:59pm 25 June 2024
  • Murrumbidgee Irrigation – external trades 5PM 28 June 2024 and internal trades 11:59pm 30 June 2024

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The BOM released an updated outlook on 26 April. The full outlook can be viewed by clicking here but, in summary: 

  • May rainfall is likely to be below median for parts of southern and eastern Australia, with an increased likelihood of unusually low rainfall for parts of southern and eastern Australia. May temperatures are likely to be above median for most of Australia.
  • For June and July, the rainfall forecast shifts towards having roughly equal chances of above or below median monthly rainfall for most of Australia. Monthly temperatures are likely to be above median for all of Australia.
  • There is an increased likelihood of unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the May to July period.

The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.

Read previous update:

Meet the author

Daisy Armstrong

Water Broker
  • Elders Griffith

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