30 November 2024

Latest cattle market update


The latest insights and information on the Australian cattle market as of December 2024*.

National saleyard cattle indicator prices stabilised through November, despite a continuation of heavy local slaughter levels as large supplies of Australian beef sells well to strong global and domestic demand and steady prices.

This chart shows the national saleyard indicator prices for major Australian cattle categories (c/kg lw). Source: MLA.

National saleyard cattle price indicators have been relatively stable over the past couple of months.

Prices for lean manufacturing beef to the US have traded in a narrow range since mid-year, but have firmed again over the past month, assisted by a depreciation in the $A and a strengthening in demand for lower cost beef items. 

This chart shows the Ac/kg price of 90CL US manufacturing beef exported to the US. Source: MLA.

Beef export prices to the US have risen in recent weeks on a weaker $A and buying ahead of proposed tariffs on imports by Trump.

Outside of the US, Australian beef continues to sell well aided by the large differential between Australian and US cattle values which has made Australian beef more competitive. US beef exports to Asia are down 6 per cent (pc) on last year but down 22 pc compared to 2022 with much of this business shifting to Australia.

This chart shows US beef exports to Asia vs the US cattle price premium comparted to Australia cattle values. Source: USDA & MLA.

Higher US cattle prices have opened the door for increased Australian beef exports into Asia.

While national saleyard cattle price indicators are stable, they belie some significant shifts happening across the states. The strong start to the northern wet season that has delivered good rain to NSW and Queensland has seen cattle prices start to firm across northern markets by 20c/kg lw. The rain has convinced some producers to hold stock back for kills early next year with the promise of extra weight, which has tightened nearby supplies. Assisting the lift in prices has been an increase in live export buying activity across Queensland as NT pastoral cattle supplies are finished and cattle on the NT floodplain are not ready. Exporters are racing to send cattle to Indonesia while they have valid export permits (they expire at year’s end) and so they can be put on feed to be ready for Ramadan at the end of March.

Andrew Scott, Elders Livestock Account Manager in Queensland and NT said “our job is doing the reverse of Victoria. It's kicking across the board. Fat cattle included. JBS Swift put 20c/kg dw on their grid for cows, they're $5.50/kg dw. But basically, they've only got 3 weeks kill left. Saleyard prices are certainly way out in front of the hook’s quotes. Feeders on the Downs are $3.80/kg lw and they're making $3.80-4.10/kg lw in the yards.”

Trump’s diplomacy could unsettle markets

While cattle and beef prices have enjoyed a period of relative stability through 2024 there are signs this is about to change.

Overnight, Trump announced he was going to apply a blanket 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico in a bid to get them to better control contraband and illegals crossing from their borders and entering the US.

Canada and Mexico have a significant trade in cattle and beef with the US. For the calendar year to date over 1.6 million cattle and nearly 1.2 million tonnes of beef have crossed the border into the US from Canada and Mexico (mostly feeder cattle). This could seriously unsettle global beef markets if implemented.

In other trade news with Mexico, the US has put a temporary ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports due to the detection of screw worm (fly larvae that cause infection in cattle). Any prolonged ban on Mexican feeder cattle would be supportive of US cattle prices. For the calendar year to date Mexico has exported just over 1 million feeder cattle to the US, around 5 pc of all US feeder cattle.

It’s a different story across the southern states where the poor southern wet season and the lack of follow-up rain after mid-October storms has feed reserves and dam levels dwindling. This has seen producers offer stock for sales 1 to 2 months ahead of normal which has pressured markets and seen southern cattle values fall by around 20c/kg lw. 

Rising prices in the north and falling values in the southern states has seen prices detach over the past month. One good sign though, is that northern rain and storm troughs are pushing deep into South Australia and Victoria which may mean the south could get more rain over summer than they did during the traditional southern winter wet season. Further rainfall will start to promote summer grasses and may slow down the premature southern turnoff.

Peter Homann, Elders National Livestock Manager, said “I’ve just bought a barge full of black EU steers for less than they are paying for Brahman feeders in central Queensland”.

This chart shows the feeder cattle saleyard indicator price in Queensland vs Victoria (c/kg lw). Source: MLA.

The strong start to the northern wet season and increased live export activity has firmed cattle prices in QLD.

In the south, the lack of rainfall through the southern wet season has encouraged an early turnoff of stock forcing down prices across VIC.

As a result, QLD and VIC prices have detached with a 50c.kg premium emerging for QLD cattle.

Another point of note over the past month has been the further narrowing in feeder premiums for Wagyu, Wagyu X and Angus cattle. This is associated with a contraction in demand for higher priced beef items owing to a slowing in the Chinese market, contraction in food service sector, a shift in buying habits in Japan and cost of living pressures the world over.

Since the start of 2023, Wagyu sirloin prices have fallen 9 to 14 pc in stark contrast to a 38 pc rise in manufacturing beef prices over the same period. The fall in Wagyu beef prices is consistent across the range of cuts (sirloin, round, chuck, brisket) measured by the USDA.

Falling premium beef prices are showing up in a narrowing in the feeder premiums for Angus, Wagyu X and Wagyu. Angus feeder premiums have narrowed from around 40c/kg lw to just 9c/kg lw, while indications are that the normal F1 feeder premium of $2/kg lw has halved while purebred Wagyu premiums of $5-6/kg lw have done about the same, although it is a little difficult to be too definitive about specific margins given the wide range quality considerations.

Also working against the premium cattle market is the extended length of time on feed, cost of financing these cattle and the risk that high-end beef demand continues to contract through the feeding period. Some feedlotters have moved away from long-fed Wagyu focus on shorter fed cattle that can be turned over more frequently, negating some of the risk of feedlotting. 

This chart shows the bargain and normal Japanese retail beef prices for Wagyu sirloin (Ac/kg). Source: USDA.

Prices for Wagyu beef have been falling over the past year, counter to the trend in manufacturing beef prices.

Cost of living pressures the world over is seeing consumers trade down on beef purchases.

Local cattle markets look set to remain mixed over coming weeks as the industry winds down for Christmas/New Year. Queensland has another two full weeks of processing left with most plants planning to close around 19 December and likely remain closed until the second week of January. In the south, processing schedules will be affected by holidays falling mid-week. Expect southern prices to remain depressed as processors work through pre-Christmas bookings on reduced capacity due to the holiday schedule.

Peter Homann, National Livestock Manager said “we're getting pretty good rains now, but still it's been dry. Prices have come back, works are fully booked, and we're coming into that Christmas period where it can be tough to sell stock. But everyone's talking positively about next year with processors offering contracts going out into the New Year.”

Looking forward to the New Year, Elders agents report that processors are upbeat about prospects for meat contracts and prices moving forward as industry processing capacity moves back into full swing from mid-January. The major caveat to a resumption in the positive cattle price trend would seem to come from US trade policy and its impact on Australia’s trading partners.

We expect to see renewed interest from restockers during 2025. Restocker demand has been notable for its absence in 2024 showing up in weak prices for secondary cattle and the unusually large discount for heifers. Uneven seasonal conditions and the impact on grazier confidence of the sharp correction in cattle prices during the second half of 2023 seems to be the reason. As cash flows strengthen from a strong grain harvest and better cattle prices, we should see a lift in restocker demand in 2025, providing seasonal conditions cooperate. We may currently be seeing the best restocker market opportunities for years to come. 

 

From the rail

Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.

“Live export prices were firm to slightly dearer with activity shifting out of Darwin towards Townsville while they wait for the NT floodplain cattle to become available in December. This and some topping up out of the saleyards for live ex shipments has helped northern saleyard prices firm a little.

“Charters Towers prime cattle sale comprised of isolated pens of heavy, well finished fat cattle but the remainder lacked weight and condition. There, was good competition from processors and exporters on suitable pens. Cows were 10c dearer and Bulls were 10c easier on last week’s rates. Heavy steers to a top of $3.45/kg (Brahman) with most $3.25 to $3.35/kg vs last week top at $3.36c/kg with most $2.90 to $3.20/kg.

“Store cattle were made up of some good lines of lightweight steers and heifers which sold to strong competition from western and coastal restockers. Steers 200-320c/kg to a top of $3.58c/kg but an avg of $2.80c/kg while the same heifers to a top of $2.78c/kg and avg $2.40c/kg

“The Charters Towers report needs to be read against the fact it was a plainer offering which, given the firmness in prices, means the market was significantly stronger.

“Lightweight steer prices still lagging with 220kg Brahman steers (plain condition) selling to $2.65/kg vs 300kg plus $3.10/kg.

“A boat planned for Vietnam out of Townsville in early December with pricing indications of $3.20 to $3.30/kg lw will be handy to clean up a few ahead of plant closures in mid-December.” - Paul McCormack, Elders Livestock Manager Customer Solutions, QLD/NT

 

“Our job is doing the reverse of Victoria. If anything, it's kicking across the board. Fat cattle included. I think JBS put 20c/kg on their grid for cows, they're $5.50/kg. But basically, they've only got three weeks’ kill left.

“Saleyard prices are certainly way out in front of the hook’s quotes. Feeders on the Downs are $3.80/kg and they're making $3.80-4.10/kg in the yards.

“Little cattle are starting to get very dear. There has been excellent rain from Blackhall down to Brisbane but has hugged the west. We haven't had it in the central, just patchy rain in the central. But your black steers are back making $4/kg plus and that's with a bit of white in them.

“300 kg weaners are coming back to what fat cattle and feeders are worth.” - Andrew Scott, Elders Livestock Account Manager QLD/NT

 Queensland saleyard market indicators c/kg lw 
  27/11/2024  +/- week  +/1 month  +/- year 
 Heavy steer 324325 (-1)315 (+9) 281 (+43) 
 Processor cow 267271 (-4)254 (+13)213 (+64)
 Feeder steer360363 (-3)340 (+20)327 (+33)
 Restocker steer379376 (+3)365 (+14)363 (+16)

Source: MLA

 

 NSW saleyard market indicators c/kg lw 
 27/11/2024  +/- week  +/1 month  +/- year 
 Heavy steer 324331 (-7)326 (-2) 235 (+89) 
 Processor cow 267267 (n/c)269 (-2)205 (+62)
 Feeder steer343344 (-1)343 (n/c)276 (+67)
 Restocker steer349353 (-4)353 (-4)311 (+38)

Source: MLA

“We're getting pretty good rains now, but still it's been dry. Prices have come back, works are full and we're coming into that Christmas period where it can be tough to sell stock in the short-term.

“Things are a little bit wobbly with all these prices back 20c/kg I reckon which is still reasonable, it’s just that sort of this time of year, but it feels like it's we're already in mid-December.

“But everyone's talking positively about next year with processors offering contracts going out into the New Year.

“On the store front, the dry weather and lack of runoff for dams is seeing producers offload one to two months early causing some downward pressure on prices. There are the odd, good results. Hopefully recent rain may help slow turnoff down a bit

“Weaner sale at Yea was a few weeks earlier due to dry spring but steers (200 to 300kg) sold to a top of $1500/head to average $1,156/head and heifers to a top of $1,100/head and average $851/head at around $4 to $4.30/kg lw. Buyers were from northern Victoria and all through NSW.” - Peter Homann, Elders National Livestock Manager

 Victoria saleyard market indicators c/kg lw 
  27/11/2024  +/- week  +/1 month  +/- year 
 Heavy steer 330328 (-2)317 (+13) 231 (+99) 
 Processor cow 256258 (-2)274 (-18)211 (+45)
 Feeder steer314305 (+9)290 (+24)235 (+79)
 Restocker steer300272 (+28)270 (+30)216 (+84)

Source: MLA

 SA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw 
  27/11/2024  +/- week  +/1 month  +/- year 
 Heavy steer 330328 (-2)317 (+13) 231 (+99) 
 Processor cow 256258 (-2)274 (-18)211 (+45)
 Feeder steer314 305 (+9)290 (+24)235 (+79)
 Restocker steer300272 (+28)270 (+30)216 (+84)

Source: MLA

“The rain over here has been widespread from north of Perth right out east of Perth in the pastoral areas through all the cropping areas as well, which wasn't good for them trying to harvest. Down south, we've had some pretty good rains as well, which has helped with our graziers.

“Most have got hay off now and there's been still a bit of green feed around, so that's really helped with the paddock feed and the regrowth. It's also helped that graziers have come into the market now down at Boyanup and Mount Barker way to buy those lighter cattle to start putting away, which has been good to see because they are still pretty good buying.

“Everything else over here is very much the same.

“The price for a steer is anywhere from $3.20 up to about $4/kg lw, depending on weight, and for a heifer $2.20 to $3/kg lw, depending on their weight and the quality.

“The abattoirs are still getting plenty of cattle in with bookings till the end of the year. Then I think when we get into next year, it'll start to dry up a bit and they'll be scrambling around trying to work out where some of the cattle are coming from.

“The grainfed job has opened at $7/kg and $6.80/kg into the supermarket for January, which is probably where we thought it should be, but that space will be interesting for February to see where it goes.

“Cows are about the same over here. $4.70/kg dw we are shipping a few cows over your way, but they pulled up on that as of this morning. That's been pretty good just tidying up a few of those heavy cows that we haven't been able to get into the abattoirs over here.” - Michael Longford, Elders Livestock Sales Manager, WA

 WA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw 
 27/11/2024  +/- week  +/1 month  +/- year 
 Heavy steer 258267 (-9)275 (-17) 180 (+78) 
 Processor cow 181194 (-13)196 (-15) 133 (+48)
 Feeder steer295 306 (-11)341 (-46) 192 (+103)

Source: MLA

“Not a lot changed other than the fact we didn't get much of that moisture that came through over this last week. We are dry. We need rain. The countryside is not looking too bad at the minute, a bit of warmth about and the winds dropped. So that has helped and there is a bit of rain on the forecast.

“Cattle prices starting to waiver a bit again. Better quality yearlings over the hooks gone from $6.90/kg to $6.70/kg dw. Better cows are $5.50/kg back to $5.40/kg dw now.

“Dairy cows 200kg which we have a lot of over here $4.60 to $4.70/kg dw.

“We had 2000 plus cattle at the yards last week. Was a bit apprehensive heading into it about where the market would go, the feed situation is not fantastic, but the better-quality Angus steers 400kg plus sold to $3.70/kg lw, which was good.

“Anything 300-400kg, $3.50 to $3.60/kg lw, other breeds $0.20 $0.30/kg off the Angus price.

“Heifers in the market 350kg plus around $2.90/kg lw. Anything 250 to 350kg around $3/kg lw. Under 250kg around $2.70 to $2.80/kg lw, a lot of crossbred types. Dairy heifers down to $2/kg lw and under.” - Gavin Coombe, Elders State Livestock Manager, Tasmania

 Tasmania saleyard market indicators c/kg lw 
  27/11/2024  +/- week  +/1 month  +/- year 
 Heavy steer 267259 (+8)333 (-66) 212 (+55) 
 Processor cow 231230 (+1)281 (-50) 133 (+98)

Source: MLA

Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.

*Disclaimer – important, please read:

The information contained in this article is given for general information purposes only, current at the time of first publication, and does not constitute professional advice.  The article has been independently created by a human author using some degree of creativity through consultation with various third-party sources.  Third party information has been sourced from means which Elders consider to be reliable.  However, Elders has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy.  Links or references to third party sources are provided for convenience only and do not constitute endorsement of material by third parties or any associated product or service offering.  While Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in preparation of this article, many factors including environmental/seasonal factors and market conditions can impact its accuracy and currency.  The information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and, to the extent permitted by law, Elders disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising out of any reliance upon the information contained in this article.  If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice specific to your circumstances relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.