Read the latest insights and information on the Australian cattle market for September 2026*.
Restockers drive a recovery in cattle values heading into spring
A warm start to spring and strong soil moisture reserves has created phenomenal early season pasture growth across southern Australia. This has reinvigorated restocker enthusiasm and lead to a general recovery in cattle prices over the past month. The recovery in cattle values has been led by restocker categories which have moved back towards early July highs.
Across the north, where conditions remain dry, lower prices combined with a strong body of dry feed has seen graziers withhold stock. Agents report that strong feeder prices through winter saw many producers opt to turnoff cattle early and at lower weights, leaving a gap in supply. If it remains dry through September there may be another short run of feeder cattle, but adequate supplies are likely to remain tight, particularly given the expansion in pen capacity through New South Wales and Queensland.
The recovery in cattle values over the past few weeks came despite falling export market returns, compressed feeding and processing margins, and generally difficult export market conditions. Prices for slaughter cattle categories have been more subdued and supported by tight supplies ahead of a seasonal lift in export weight cattle from the south towards the end of spring. Southern processors remain active in Queensland as they prepare for the start of their peak processing season.
Australian exporters are facing difficult export environment owing to unfavourable shifts in the trade access and the prospect of increased competition from South American exporters. The local industry has responded by reducing processing activity (down by around 10,000 head/week in July/August vs May/June) and export volumes (-13 per cent in August compared to July and 15 per cent lower than year ago) with some southern plants still running kills three days a week.
Australia has triggered its safeguard quotas for China and Korea which has seen a sharp reduction in exports to these markets. It has also increased our reliance on the US imported beef market which took just under 40 per cent of all Australian beef exports in August.
However, US beef demand has begun to ease due to high relative beef prices and mounting cost of living pressures. Despite a 5 per cent fall in US production, processors have been unable to push beef prices above year ago levels, and have been suffering processing losses, necessitating some further industry rationalisation. The 90CL US beef export price eased 8 per cent during August, further squeezing beef export processing margins.
Australian exporters will face increased competition from Brazil in coming months as its export market access is restricted. Brazil will soon fill its China quota while the European Commission has completely removed Brazil from the list of countries eligible to ship beef to the EU due to non-compliance. In July, Brazil shipped 140,000 tonnes to Brazil, while it exports around 130,000 tonnes annually to the EU.
Brazilian exporters will likely redirect displaced exports to the US under a deal recently announced by Trump to allow an additional 300,000 tonnes of tariff free beef into the US over the next 90 days. Australian suppliers will lose their 26.4pc tariff advantage, with South American exporters able to offer larger discounts to secure orders.
Unfavourable trade developments, flagging export beef demand, increased competition from south America and tightening processing margins will cap cattle prices over the next couple of months. Buying for the opening of China and Korea should resume sometime in October and provide the catalyst for a recovery in prices. This should continue into late 2026 and the early part of 2027, providing even seasonal conditions.
Heavy steer values supported by falling US production
Heavy steer values have been relatively stable for much of the year, fluctuating between $4 to 4.50c/kg liveweight (lw) according to supply and the strength of export demand.
With Australian exports into north Asia slowing due to import restrictions, increased export volumes are being directed to the US where imports are being used to fill the void left by lower US production.
Looking at US cattle supply it is expected that weaker US production will remain supportive at least for the next couple of years. USDA’s August Cattle on Feed report put July feedlot placements at 1.42 million head (down 11 per cent from 2025 and the lowest on record) suggesting that tight feeder cattle supplies will continue to be a constraint on US production.
Local supplies of heavy steers should improve as we move through spring, as southern cattle turnoff increases seasonally and as the Queensland season winds up. Expect plenty of bullocks to move out of the channel country over the next few months before the next wet season.
Prices should remain steady
Local supplies of heavy steers should lift heading into the back end of 2026; however, prices should be supported by export demand as US beef production remains constrained while buying for north Asia should increase in October.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for heavy steers in 2025 vs 2026 and 3-year average. Source: MLA.
Lower US manufacturing beef prices to pressure cows
US imported manufacturing beef prices are under pressure from increased supplies of southern America beef, while local cow values have been supported by southern processor competition owing to seasonally tight supplies across southern Australia.
Over the next few months US export market conditions look set to worsen after Trump announced he would allow 300,000 tonnes over tariff free beef trimmings over the next quarter. While the market is still framing up, anecdotal evidence suggests Brazilian beef price offers were back 15-20USc/lb and that Australian offer prices are under pressure.
A further weakening in cow beef export returns and a lift in the availability of suitable slaughter weight cattle across the south, will combine to place some pressure on cow values over the next few months. Prices are expected to trade at the lower end of their recent range between $3.50 to 4/kg lw.
Brazilian competition to push cow beef returns lower
With Trumps announcement of an additional 300,000 tonne tariff free quota, Australian suppliers will lose their 26.4pc tariff advantage, and Brazilian exporters will be able to offer larger discounts to secure orders.
This and an increase in cattle slaughter supplies across the south will act to cool cow prices over the next couple of months.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for cows 2025 & 2026 and 3-year average. Source: MLA.
Tightening northern supplies support price recovery
Feeder cattle values have been assisted by the ongoing expansion of feedlot capacity in NSW and Queensland, which has increased demand for feeder cattle. In the June 2026 quarter feedlot capacity reached a record high, totalling just below 1.8 million head. This was up around 90,000 head from June 2025 (at 1.5 turns/per year equates to a requirement for 135,000 additional feeder steers).
This and buying to place cattle on feed for the reopening of north Asian beef quotas in early 2027 is assisting feeder cattle values. Agents are reporting that high prices in June/July resulted in Queensland graziers offloading feeder cattle earlier and at lower weights, leaving a gap in northern feeder supply heading into spring. There will be a short run of cattle in October, if it stays dry for September but those numbers won't fill the feedlots, with most feedlots having expanded.
Southern feeder cattle spreads have begun to tighten again as supplies of these cattle off crops increase and as Queensland feeder supplies tighten. Flatback feeders at $5.20 to 5.40c/kg lw, Angus back towards $6/kg and a bit more for EU accredited and British cross are around the mid $5’s/kg.
Increased capacity supports feeder values
Despite some export market challenges and tight feeding margins, feeder cattle demand is being supported by a strong expansion in feedlot capacity.
Despite the prospects of higher grain prices, grainfed beef values should improve as buying resumes for China and Korea from October. This should support feeder values.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for feeder steers and heifers in 2025 and 2026 and the 3-year average. Source: MLA
Restocker market is fickle
Despite forecasts for an El Nino weather event, the onset of warm spring weather and the resultant lift in pasture growth has seen a resurgence of restocker activity across eastern Australia, propelling store cattle prices back to the highs of early July.
After falling to $3.80/kg lw and being tough to sell in August, the national saleyard indicator for restocker heifers has firmed considerably to $4.70c/kg lw as graziers went bargain shopping over the past few weeks.
As always, the fate of restocker cattle values will be dependent on seasonal conditions over the coming spring.
Turnaround in restokcer values
The past couple of months has seen a rollercoaster in restocker values. After easing sharply in August as cold conditions curtailed pasture growth, the warm start to spring has reinvigorated pasture growth and restocker buying enthusiasm. This has led to a sharp rebound in values.
This chart shows c/kg lw national saleyard indicator price for restocker steers in 2025 and 2026 and the 3-year average. Source: MLA.
From the rails
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
"The Northern region is at the height of our dry season with the feed value mostly shot. There is a good body of feed but there is no nutritional value. Producers are at the crossroads wondering whether to put cattle that haven’t made weight through another wet season."
"Some operators are trying to stretch boats out and focus more on Queensland cattle and prize some out of western Queensland, in the hope that it pulls the Darwin market back a bit. But that hasn’t happened with those focussed on the west coast moving across to Darwin, which has pushed the market about 5c/kg liveweight (lw) higher."
"Cows at Charters Towers were solid again, with those with good cover selling well. Southern processors were active on anything heavy. Further to the south in Central and southern Queensland the season is drying off and everyone looking for rain.
"On feeder’s, yards are in front at $5.20 to 5.50/kg lw, whereas out of the paddock $5.20 to 5.30/kg lw.
"Weaners are heading higher and works are looking to add another 20c/kg dressed weight (dw) to grids.
"Works quotes are way behind those in the south, at $7/kg dw for cows and $8/kg dw for bullocks.
"Numbers have just dried up. The phone stopped ringing about a week 10 days ago.
"There will be a short run of cattle in October, if it stays dry for September but those numbers won't fill the feedlots with most feedlots having expanded." - Paul McCormick, Livestock Manager, Customer Solutions.
Queensland saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 11/09/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 438 | 436 (+2) | 408 (+30) | 389 (+49) |
| Processor cow | 364 | 366 (-2) | 342 (+22) | 354 (+10) |
| Feeder steer | 492 | 505 (-12) | 474 (+18) | 453 (+39) |
| Restocker steer | 523 | 521 (+2) | 458 (+65) | 473 (+50) |
| Restocker heifer | 462 | 456 (+6) | 375 (+87) | 403 (+59) |
Source: MLA
"The northern part of NSW is on the knifes edge particularly as you get closer to the Queensland border. Inverell and the New England are still struggling.The rest of the north has had a bit of rain, but it is all swinging in the balance, especially with the temperatures moving up quickly."
"There was a significant lift in prices across northern NSW selling centres off the back of the rain, with the biggest lift in the restocking space; store heifers and steer rates jumping considerably."
"Slaughter cattle values are still steady as she goes; high $7’s, early $8’s/kg dw for cows. Supermarket type cattle are holding at $9 to $9.50/kg dw depending on which program you're going into. And the feeder job is just starting to see a bit of a lift again heading back towards $6/kg lw on your blacks and a bit better if you're EU while British cross cattle are sitting around mid-$5’s lw." - Nick Hannaford, Livestock Manager Northern Region.
NSW saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 11/09/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 473 | 470 (+3) | 448 (+25) | 470 (+3) |
| Processor cow | 404 | 406 (-2) | 385 (+19) | 395 (+9) |
| Feeder steer | 549 | 556 (-7) | 528 (+21) | 507 (+42) |
| Restocker steer | 576 | 569 (+7) | 503 (+73) | 498 (+78) |
| Restocker heifer | 508 | 520 (-12) | 441 (+67) | 446 (+62) |
Source: MLA
"There is plenty of feed around and looking forward to being able to sell a bit more stock when numbers come forward a little later in spring." "Cows are $8.20, feeder steers are around $5.50/kg lw. EU-accredited cattle may attract a premium above these rates." - Scott Altschwager, State Livestock Manager, southern South Australia. SA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 11/09/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 481 | 486 (-5) | 458 (+23) | 456 (+25) |
| Processor cow | 418 | 419 (-1) | 401 (+17) | 404 (+14) |
| Feeder steer | 481 | 491 (-10) | 490 (-9) | 488 (-7) |
| Restocker Steer | 472 | 493 (-21) | 497 (-25) | 500 (-28) |
| Restocker heifer | 468 | 469 (-1) | 474 (-6) | 441 (+27) |
Source: MLA.
"Season-wise the northern half of the state's in really good shape, heading for a good spring. The southern Midlands around Oaklands is still struggling for moisture."
"Slaughter cattle jobs are $9 to 9.20/kg dw for program yearlings and cows from $7.50 to 8/kg dw. Store cattle have improved 40 to 50c/kg lw over the past month. Heavier steers +400kgs back up to $5.30 to $5.80/kg lw and 300-400kg $5.60 to 6.20/kg lw and lighter types anywhere from $6.50 to $7/kg lw. Store heifers back up to $4.90 to $5.40/kg lw on the heavier types and lighter heifers $5.50 to $6/kg lw."
"Woolworths have decided to move out of the state altogether and source all their meat from the mainland rather than kill in local works." - Gavin Coombe, State Livestock Manager, Tasmania.
Tasmania saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 11/09/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy Steer | 433 | 419 (+14) | 441 (-8) | 450 (-24) |
| Processor cow | 370 | 393 (-23) | 412 (-42) | 361 (+9) |
Source: MLA.
"Season-wise the centre of the Victoria/Riverina region is very, very good. Bordering on too wet. There are patches in the western district that feed wise are good, but they probably need a little bit more run off. And there's a pocket in Gippsland that is dry and they have begun to offload a few cattle."
"There are cattle coming out of Gippsland to Barnawartha in the north of the state and selling well in the high $6’s/kg lw to the early $7’s/kg lw for little black steers. So, there’s a bit of grass fever, but it is still sort of wet enough in spots and that’s holding a bit of buying at bay." - Nick Gray, State Livestock Manager, Victoria/Riverina.
Victoria saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 11/09/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 494 | 485 (+9) | 487 (+7) | 487 (+7) |
| Processor cow | 422 | 420 (+2) | 409 (+13) | 414 (+8) |
| Feeder steer | 525 | 508 (+17) | 496 (+29) | 494 (+31) |
| Restocker steer | 488 | 514 (-30) | 496 (-8) | 436 (+52) |
| Restocker heifer | 485 | 453 (+32) | 443 (+42) | 423 (+62) |
Source:MLA
"The south of Western Australia still needs a bit more rain. It's green around the place, but we still need more rain for runoff. We're going to be very light on for hay and silage this coming season. Some farmers are looking at cutting crops early for hay. Others are waiting to see what happens. Hoping for a decent cold front to push through."
"Up north, we've still got cattle to come out of the Gascoyne and Murchison regions, with the season up there a month behind, having got a bit more rain and deciding to hang on and put some more weight into their cattle. Muchea is starting to get a few more cattle coming in through. Kimberley cattle are still running owing to the good season, but they are starting to slow down a bit.
"Supermarkets over here are currently sitting between that $9 and $9.20/kg dw. Cows haven't moved too much to sit in that $6.70/kg dw at the abattoirs and from $3.24 to $3.54/kg kw at the yards.
"Feeder steers are still very similar. Lighter steers made-up to $6.10/kg lw last week, but most other store weight ranges are sitting between that $5.30 and $5.70/kg lw. Heifers under 280kgs made-up to $5.40/kg lw, with most of the other ranges sitting between $4.30 and $4.90/kg lw.
"Certified grass-fed programs have really kept the heifer price up. A few heifers came in last week between 430 to 450kgs that had preg-tested empty and they were making $4.70 to $4.80/kg lw consistently throughout the yarding." - Michael Longford, Livestock Sales Manager, Western Australia.
WA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 11/09/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 440 | 412 (+28) | 438 (-2) | 373 (+67) |
| Processor cow | 332 | 327 (+5) | 316 (+16) | 332 (n/c) |
| Feeder steer | 475 | 509 (-34) | 477 (-2) | 417 (+58) |
| Restocker steer | 424 | 392 (+32) | 447 (-23) | 423 (+1) |
| Restocker heifer | 376 | 226 (+150) | 297 (+79) | 354 (+22) |
Source: MLA.
*Disclaimer – important, please read:
The information contained in this article is given for general information purposes only, current at the time of first publication, and does not constitute professional advice. The article has been independently created by a human author using some degree of creativity through consultation with various third-party sources. Third party information has been sourced from means which Elders consider to be reliable. However, Elders has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy. Links or references to third party sources are provided for convenience only and do not constitute endorsement of material by third parties or any associated product or service offering. While Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in preparation of this article, many factors including environmental/seasonal factors and market conditions can impact its accuracy and currency. The information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and, to the extent permitted by law, Elders disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising out of any reliance upon the information contained in this article. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice specific to your circumstances relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.