Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 25 to 31 May 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
At a glance:
- Great rain for some of the driest regions of the east coast
- Cattle rates start spiking in June as all segments compete for tightening supply
- Tight supplies propel wool prices higher, the best since 2019
- Rain and reduced grazier demand takes out domestic premium
- Cotton looks to next week’s USDA report to confirm tight supply.
Weather
The past week saw excellent widespread rainfall of 25 to 100mm for most of southern Queensland (Qld) and northern and central New South Wales (NSW), some of the driest parts of Australia. The rain was hit and miss outside these areas on the east coast with falls lower around 5 to 25mm and very patchy. This rain will change the course of the winter cropping season in areas east of Goondiwindi and Moree but is too little too late for western areas of northern NSW and southern Quensland which will look to store moisture and hope to have a summer cropping season. Tasmania received heavy (25 to 100mm) and widespread rainfall which will be a big relief for southern and eastern areas which were running out of stock water.
Western Australia (WA) also got some rain of around 10mm and the forecast looks good for some widespread rain 15 to 50mm across our entire southern cropping belt. Victoria (Vic) and the Riverina are likely to get the best of it. It is almost looking like a normal winter rainfall pattern.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar was kept in check, below 72USc last week by weak export demand data out of China and Israel escalating conflict in Lebanon, putting Iran peace deal progress at risk.
Livestock
Another good week in local cattle markets with prices up 4 to 8 per cent (pc) as widespread rain hit the east coast. Restocker cattle led the charge with buying agents armed with orders from restockers featuring in most of the saleyard reports. This added competition and saw all parts of the supply chain; processors, feeders, restockers/backgrounders competing for scarce supplies of cattle. Queensland supplies will start to flow better once the new financial year rolls around. Southern processors are going to be dealing with tight supplies of suitable cattle at least until the end of spring and will increasingly have to turn to Queensland for supply. Saleyard reports last week indicated that southern buyers have moved north from northern New South Wales (NSW) into Queensland chasing mainly slaughter cattle.
We will be publishing a dedicated sheep market update later this week, but basically markets have found a level at $11 to 12/kg for lamb and around $8/kg for mutton. Processors are working through contracted supplies with booking space in June/July for kills a challenge. Given the prevalence of feeding this year, heavy weight lambs are comprising a larger proportion of the markets with trade and lighter weights lambs harder to find. Trade and light lambs are commanding a modest premium which is a change from the normal winter pricing structure. There are a bunch of processor closures coming up. Basically, it seems processors have worked out what they are prepared to pay for sheepmeat and if they can’t find stock, are content to wind down for some maintenance to be ready for the spring where supplies are promising to be easier to come by. Reports that scanning and lambing rates are fantastic with lambs on the ground looking great which augurs well for supply later in the year.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
Grain Central is reporting that northern feed grain prices tumbled this week with rain brightening the region’s production prospects and eroding the domestic premium that had been building. While the rain will not spark a full-scale winter plant on the plains, it has brightened the yield and area outlook for crops on the slopes. Wheat and barley values delivered Darling Downs are back from $425/tonne a week ago to $390/t and $400/t, respectively.
Southern markets dropped $5 to 10/t this week reflect consolidating production prospects after more patchy rain throughout southern cropping regions. Also affecting southern values was some softening in export markets and southern region end users holding comfortable levels of coverage. Given cash flow needs, southern growers have been ready sellers compared to their northern counterparts. Drought feeders have slowed down their buying due to the massive destocking out of the New England region and improving conditions all the way through southern grazing areas.
Internationally not much news, although there are concerns about the US wheat crop and about spring planting in Russia and Canada. European crops look good despite a few hot days. With the northern harvest fast approaching there may be some seasonal harvest price pressure in coming months, but given the tightening global grains balance sheet, it won’t be anything like last year and prices should resume their upward trend by the time our local harvest gets underway. The big watch is the northern hemisphere corn crop where planting is just winding up – with lower (-5per cent) US corn plantings projected, if anything threatens US corn yields, it could be on for young and old.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
This week saw the Australian wool market record successive days of strong gains, with the EMI finishing 54 cents higher at 1,934Ac/kg, its highest level since 9 May 2019. Fine Merino types (16.5 to 19 micron) recorded another very strong week, gaining 60 to 65 cents, supported by continued buyer competition for the finer wools. Medium Merinos (19.5 to 21 micron) also attracted solid support, lifting 55 to 60 cents, while crossbreds (25 to 32 micron) maintained recent momentum, rising 30 to 35 cents. Merino cardings also performed strongly, adding 30 to 35 cents across the sale rooms.
The smaller national offering of 25,712 bales, combined with expectations of further seasonal tightening in coming weeks, is likely adding urgency for buyers looking to secure sufficient inventory through the southern hemisphere winter. With shearing activity slowing, available auction volumes are expected to remain constrained in the short term. This week sees another light offering with sales in just Sydney and Melbourne with 23,300 bales on offer.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Cotton
It has been an interesting week in cotton. On Saturday, the Indian government announced a temporary suspension of raw cotton duties from now through 31 October (previously set at 11 per cent) which should support global demand. The US cotton export sales report released Friday night was very supportive, with total sales across three marketing years coming in at 312,896 bales. US and Brazilian cotton export sales have been consistently above levels required to meet USDA export projections. We may start to see some tightening in the global cotton balance sheet in next week’s USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Lastly, global yarn prices were steady to stronger last week. With the recent erosion in raw cotton rates meaning a margin have likely re-emerged for the spinning sector. Reports last weeks also of some fresh fixed price mill inquiry.
Local cotton prices remain mostly unchanged at $575 to 585/bale Moree/Dalby while cottonseed values are easing on reduced drought feeding demand back to $510/tonne back from $540/tonne last week.
Sugar
Sugar strengthened into the weekend after slumping to four-week lows during the week with traders viewing ample near-term supplies as priced in for now. There has been a strong start to the Brazilian harvest which has added harvest price pressure. Supporting values though are forecasts of an El Niño-weakened monsoon for India this year (lowest monsoon rainfall projected in 11 years) which may curtail Indian sugar production. Sugar stabilised at just over 14USc/lb after falling sharply from above 15USc/lb since mid-May on Brazilian harvest pressure.
Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.
Spotlight on: cattle prices, long and short term.
Two charts today. The first puts current cattle prices into a historical context. Still sitting well below the post drought spike of mid 2021 to mid 2022. Key takeaway, prices have very rarely been better except for a relatively brief period following exceptional circumstances post drought.
The second chart shows price movements for this year. Noting high levels of volatility which I don’t expect to abate with some big changes in export market demand about to start influencing export meat markets in H2 2026.
This chart shows long-term Australian National Young Cattle Saleyard Indicator prices in c/kg liveweight between 2000 and 2026.. Source: MLA .
This chart shows the Australian National Young Cattle Saleyard Indicator prices over the past 17 months, showing the the amount of volatility this year. Source: MLA.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.