Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 2 to 8 March 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
Weather
There was more heavy rain (25 to 200mm) for the northern quarter of Australia; The Kimberley in Western Australia, Top End of Northern Territory and northern, central and Downs in Queensland. Only a small pocket of southern Queensland, west of Warwick and south of Charleville has missed out so far. The past week also saw relieving rain (25 to 100mm) for western and south central New South Wales, down through south eastern pastoral areas of South Australia, the South Australia Riverland and most of Victoria. On the east coast, the main area of concern from Mudgee and Dubbo north in New South Wales, although some patchy storm rain was received in a narrow band through Narrabri and Tamworth and parts of the Upper Hunter yesterday. In Western Australia, the Gascoyne and Pilbara and Mid North have largely missed out on northern rain. The forecast for the next week has more heavy rain for northern areas and showers for the south east, Western Australia mostly dry.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar has fluctuated between 70USc to 71USc as sentiment around the impact of the war shifted, with the impact of high oil prices overshadowing other economic considerations. The Australian dollar was under pressure Monday morning around 70USc as safe haven buying of the US dollar strengthens and concerns about impact of high oil prices on global growth increase.
Livestock
Cattle markets: Good rain across major southern and northern livestock areas have seen cattle price averages improve 2 to 3 per cent in the past week. Restocker interest is building and light cattle values are leading markets. It remains very dry in parts of central and northern New South Wales with heavy yardings at many northern New South Wales selling centres. Gunnedah had its highest yarding since 2016 and last weeks combined total for fat and store sales at Tamworth was the highest week on record for the yard. High turnoff across northern New South Wales is probably the only thing holding the cattle market from finding another level. Rain forecast for this region over the weekend will be critical to allow planting of forage crops and for pasture growth before it starts to get cold, otherwise the exodus of cattle out of the area will continue.
Sheep and lamb markets values remain at historic highs $11 to $12/kg for lamb and $8/kg dw for mutton. Sheep (-29 per cent) and lamb slaughter (-11 per cent) will tighten further seasonally over the next few months. Combined sheep and lamb slaughter last week sat at 550,000 head and will trend lower towards 400,000 head during the winter months, creating challenges for processors who are reporting some price fatigue from customers in key import markets. The associated uneven export performance suggests that demand for sheepmeat is likely to be compromised by a second round of price peaks in winter 2026. There is evidence that the 10 per cent United States tariff and higher imported lamb prices are slowing sales and shifting demand to lower value cuts in the United States. United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said that President Donald Trump’s recently announced lift in global tariffs to 15 per cent will likely be implemented this week.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Spotlight on: Light lamb prices
In the past week, export demand across the Middle East has been impacted by the US/Iran conflict that has shutdown air freight and shipping routes and has seen a dramatic increase in freight costs and exporting risks into the region. The Middle East is an important export market for Australian sheepmeat taking around 10 per cent of total exports, mainly light lambs under 20kgs which are processed as whole carcase and air freighted as chilled whole carcase (mk or muslim kill bag trade). Prices for lambs under 20kg carcase weight ran into some trouble at isolated markets last week but tight supplies and strong restocker and feeder demand are expected to mitigate any ongoing impacts.
This chart shows the light lamb national saleyard indicator price in 24/25 vs 25/26 & the 5 year average. Source: MLA
Grain
Oil increased 11per cent Friday night to be up 30 per cent (pc) in the past week as the Middle East conflict deepens and widens. In comparison, global grain values have been subdued rising around 7pc in US dollar terms or around A$20 per tonne. Local markets have gained around half that. While we have not seen any panic or even a discernible step up in buying from importers, with fuel and input costs escalating, grain is not getting any cheaper to produce and unless the situation (fertiliser shortage) is quickly resolved, 2026/27 production will be negatively affected which will place upward pressure on prices.
With Middle East shipping disrupted and airspace closed (a region that is 80pc to 90pc dependent on food imports) price surges and scarcity of some goods are expected. With over 70pc of foodstuffs being imported through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states face shortages if the war persists. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq effectively become landlocked and will depend on overland routes through Saudi Arabia.
Expect to see stronger grain prices this week. Volatility will offer pricing opportunities for local growers who have retained grain stocks from last harvest.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) reported that the Australian wool market recorded another strong performance this week, with the Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) gaining 51c/kg to 1,767Ac/kg. A smaller offering of 37,212 bales, combined with a softer Australian dollar, helped support the market and drive solid gains, particularly in the Merino sector. Year to year, the EMI now sits 542 c/kg (44.2pc) higher.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Sugar
Raw sugar prices are expected to end the year about 10pc above current levels at around 15c/lb as the global market shifts into deficit. The market has been weighed down so far this year at around 14 US cents/lb by the projected global surplus for the current 2025/26 season of around 1.39mt.
Cotton
Global cotton prices have barely given a little yelp from the Middle East conflict with the region not a major user or transit route for cotton. The main influence will be through the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of producing polyester, a fibre competitor. Mounting evidence that low cotton prices are reducing global production and improving demand for US cotton. Local cotton prices are flat at $525 per bale Moree and $470 per tonne cottonseed ex Moree Gin.
Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.
Fertiliser
Urea prices have risen around 30 to 40 per cent (pc) since the start of the Middle East war. The absence of Gulf state suppliers will cause a global urea supply imbalance. The Middle East exports an estimated 22mt of urea, accounting for about 40pc of global trade. With the peak demand period coming up (northern hemisphere summer and southern hemisphere winter crop) anything that disrupts availability of crop inputs will be negative for yields. Production in Egypt, which accounts for about 8pc of global supplies, relies on natural gas supplies from Israel which may also be threatened. China, another large fertiliser producer, has been cutting exports in recent years to supply its internal market. Russia, which accounted for an estimated 16pc of global urea supplies in 2024, could also fill the gap. But drone attacks such as the one against a fertiliser plant in Smolensk last month have underscored threats to those supply lines.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.