Weekly Market Summary

Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week August 3 to 10 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.

At a glance:

• Rain across the south
• Livestock values ease with restockers stepping back from cattle markets
• International grain prices ease but supply concerns remain
• Sugar and cotton up in dry weather in key growing regions

Weather

There was up to 10 to 50mm of widespread rainfall from a strong cold front that moved across the southern wheatbelt reaching as far north as Narrabri in New South Wales (NSW). In Western Australia, the heaviest falls were on the south coast around Esperance, while on the east coast there were isolated heavy falls in northeast Victoria and Alpine regions of NSW. This rain will help move advanced crops along in cropping regions.

From a livestock perspective, some producers are still waiting for runoff rain which will become critical for some as we move towards spring.

Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar remains range bound and directionless between 70 to 71USc with uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation keeping risk sentiment weak. A poor jobs number in the US on Friday night might be enough to put interest rate cuts back on the table which saw the US dollar weaken.

Livestock

Cattle prices continue to trend lower as the restocker premium erodes as conditions tighten across Queensland (Qld) and northern New South Wales (NSW). Slaughter and feeder cattle values are under pressure from compressing margins as export market conditions toughen. At saleyards, slaughter and feeder values were 10 to 20c/kg lw lower while restocker cattle values were 20 to 40c/kg lw weaker. Saleyard offerings across Queensland remain strong, while in the south, supply remains seasonally weak. International beef markets remain difficult, although manufacturing beef export prices into the US steadied after recent falls.

Expana’s Asia-Pacific beef market report suggests that ‘Outbound trade remained in the doldrums this week, with Australian exporters navigating a challenging landscape following the consecutive closure of two of the country's largest quota markets. In China, some importers were reported to be planning purchases of Australian beef from August onwards. Australian beef products at major Chinese supermarkets have risen around 25 to 35 per cent since the tariff took effect. Across Southeast Asia, Brazilian competition continued to intensify, with Australian product struggling to hold its ground on price and volumes in markets already awash with supply.’

Sheep and lamb values have moved back a notch over the past week as processor demand eases with several plants operating on reduced winter schedules. Lamb back to $10.50 to $11.50/kg and sheep back to $8/kg with good trade and heavy lambs at the top of pricing grids. Over the next month there will be increased supplies of light and store new season lambs as producers in large lamb producing areas like the Victorian Wimmera/Mallee look to take advantage of higher prices and offload lambs earlier and at lighter weights. Expect a widening in price spreads between slaughter and store lambs during the early part of Spring. 

Grain

International grain markets weakened last week despite little change in the global supply/demand picture. European production continues to be wound back, and Black Sea grain remains excluded from international tenders due to supply risk as exporters seek alternative export routes. French corn production is expected to fall by 35 per cent (pc) from 2025 to nine million metric tons, its lowest level since 1980. Long queues of over 4,000 grain trucks have formed at border checkpoints along Ukraine’s western borders looking to move grain to western ports with Black Sea ports shut.

Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought around 540,000 to 720,000 metric tons of milling wheat at around $289 to $290/t c&f. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. In its last tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264 to $265/t c&f.

In local markets, northern prices have firmed $20 to $420/t Downs which is supporting Riverina markets at $365/t for wheat and $335/t barley. Chickpeas firmed $100/t to $800/t Brisbane as concerns grow over new crop production levels in northern NSW and across the sub-continent.

USDA is set to release its monthly crop supply and demand report this week, and will also update its yield, production and harvest acreage numbers for US corn and soybeans. The market is concerned about the corn planting numbers. In its last report the USDA estimated corn plantings at -3pc, but many think that actual planted area is lower. With European production continuing to be wound back, reduced US corn acreage numbers could have a significant market impact.

For more detail, refer to the latest Cropping Market Update. 

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Wool

The market remains in recess.

Learn the many ways we support wool growers.

Cotton

Cotton prices have firmed to 83USc/lb on hot and dry conditions in west Texas and across cotton growing areas of China and India. A lack of natural sellers ahead of northern hemisphere new crop and low mill inventories means that downside remains limited for now.

Australian prices firmed $20/bale to $635 to $625/bale Dalby/Moree. Cottonseed has firmed on dry conditions across the northern feed zone to $545/tonne.

Sugar

Raw sugar futures rose to their highest level in 10 months at 16.45USc/lb, up nearly 10 per cent for the week, with crop concerns in the European Union and Asia adding to expectations that the global market will shift into deficit in the 2026/27 season.

Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.