The latest insights and information on the Australian sheep market as of October 2026.
Constrained supply keeps prices firm
Sheepmeat values have continued to trade in a tight range just below all-time highs as the processing industry navigates its way through exceptionally tight supply. Slaughter levels are now level with 2025 levels after being well below for much of the year.
In contrast to last year, most large sheep regions are currently enjoying exceptional seasonal conditions which has led to a recovery in lambing and marking percentages.
So far however, we haven’t seen the impact of the larger lamb cohort on slaughter. Lamb slaughter levels may start to build with Tamworth reopening this week after shutting for a month for seasonal maintenance. This should coincide with a lift in lamb supplies from large southern lamb producing areas in south-west Victoria and south-east South Australia.
This chart shows the weekly lamb kill over the past 2 years and the 5-year average. Source: MLA.
Agents are reporting that lambs have been a little slower than expected and are not quite at desired slaughter weights through large southern producing regions (south-west and central Victoria, south-east South Australia) with pasture lacking early clovers to finish lambs quickly. There is no doubt that the abundance of “soft” green feed and lack of starch in the pastures saw lamb growth rates impacted. As the days get warmer the feed should ‘harden up’ and assist pasture finishing into the end of the year.
Graziers with feed to utilise are keen to add weight, and with harvest over the next month will provide plenty of stubbles to finish lambs on. In pastoral areas to the north of SA, with the abundance of feed in paddocks, many that haven’t reached slaughter weight will be shorn and returned to paddocks.
There is also a desire to rebuild flocks, and some graziers will likely hold back increased numbers of ewe lambs rather than opt to pay record prices for replacement ewes. At spring sheep sales through the Riverina and northern Victoria, record prices have been paid for maiden ewes with the best results and clearances for composite ewes.
Mutton slaughter continues to lag year-ago levels and longer-term averages in a sign that some flock rebuilding is taking place. Mutton slaughter is likely to remain constrained well into next year, given the relative profitability of sheep enterprises vis-à-vis cropping where profitability is being affected by high fertiliser and diesel prices.
This chart shows the weekly mutton kill over the past 2 years and the 5-year average. Source: MLA.
Australian lamb and mutton exports remain under pressure from lower domestic supply, with lamb exports tracking around 9 per cent below last year’s levels. While Middle East shipments have contracted sharply, demand from Asia and the United States has remained relatively resilient despite higher prices and tariffs in the US.
Ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, combined with reduced available supply, has been the largest contributor to the decline in Australian lamb and mutton exports this year, with the region accounting for the majority of Australia's year-on-year decline in exports.
Mutton exports have been significantly affected by reduced Australian supply, falling 39 per cent year to date with falls registered to most markets. Mutton export demand is very price sensitive and sustained higher prices have seen these markets turn away from Australian mutton to other proteins or to lower cost regional and domestic supply.
The ram selling season is wrapping up with surprisingly strong results and clearances, given reduced numbers of ewes. Ram buyers appear to be focusing on growth, fat and muscle in meat sheep, and are prepared to pay for the better traits.
In the studs that offered Australian sheep breeding values (ASBVs), buyers were chasing the top five per cent and above in some traits. One of our agents commented that buyers are focusing on rams that have ‘the figures’. Interest was best across the Merino (some sales double last year’s averages) and composite sires, indicating a renewed focus on wool production. Some terminal sire sales were a little sticky across Dorset, White Suffolk and Border Leicester breeds.
US trade investigation to determine fate of heavy export lambs
Tight supplies of heavy weight lambs suitable for premium North American markets have seen prices trade back up towards the top end of the recent range. A decline in the numbers of grain-finished lamb and new season lambs being a little slow to reach heavy weights has caught some processors short, with some contracted lambs failing to reach required weights and being pushed back.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator prices for heavy lambs in 24/25 vs 26/26 and five-year average. Source: MLA
While nearby trading reflects available supplies in Australia, the current investigation into US lamb imports has the potential to seriously affect export lamb demand. Australian lamb producers could face economic trade sanctions for up to eight years, should a US investigation find imports have caused ‘serious injury’ to US farmers.
A US International Trade Commission investigation into lamb imports was announced in July with a hearing last week the first stage. Findings are set to be made by November 13 and if serious injury is found, an additional hearing will be held in mid-December to discuss how to proceed.
The Australian industry is arguing that restrictive safeguard measures on imported lamb will effectively reduce overall demand for lamb and be damaging to US producers. Increasing the price of imported lamb meat or otherwise limiting its availability will lead retail and restaurant chains to substitute more readily available proteins.
The American Sheep Industry Association is arguing imports of lamb had surged (from a share of just over 30 per cent in 1999 to more than 70 per cent currently) and resulted in lost sales, revenues, and market share for US producers, as imported lamb meat ‘significantly undersold American lamb with low-priced imports, particularly from Australia and New Zealand’.
But if the commission agrees that imports have caused injury or the threat of it, any remedies will likely push up prices for US consumers, many of whom are already down on the Trump administration over affordability concerns.
Trade lambs prices firm as supplies remain tight
Many processors have been reluctant to forward contract too many lambs this spring given the uncertainty surrounding the US trade. With lambs being slower than normal, some processors have been wrong footed and caught short of supply. This has forced them to increase prices and compete more vigorously against restockers and feeders to obtain slaughter supplies.
With weather getting warm and pastures talking off again, lambs should start to reach desired weights quickly and some agents are suggesting that lamb availability will improve in November and into year’s end, helping prices to cool a little.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator prices for trade lambs. Source: MLA
Demand for light lamb eases with reduced restocker and feeder activity
Light lambs remain few and far between compared to other categories, and demand from processors is strengthening as plants return from season maintenance and we get through a string of public holiday shutdowns in late September, early October.
It is likely that light lambs will continue to attract strong support from restockers, feeders and processors. Strong restocker and feeder competition has assisted demand for light lamb categories despite significantly reduced export demand due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator prices for light lambs. Source: MLA.
Restocker activity eases with most buying done
In the past month, widespread rainfall across many major lamb producing areas has turned sentiment for many producers, who had grown cautious after a dry start to spring and media focus on the strength of the El Nino weather pattern.
Most areas are now set up for a reasonable spring and with the days getting warmer, pasture growth is rebounding shifting attention from dry forecasts to how to utilise abundant pastures and stubbles.
Lambs back to the paddock remain the most expensive at the yards on a $/kg basis. The National Restocker lamb Indicator improved 29¢ last week to 1195¢/kg cwt.
It is likely that demand for restocker lambs will remain firm whilst the meat price holds and if pasture availability remains strong.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator for restocker lambs. Source: MLA
There is a big offload happening in WA, a couple of weeks earlier than normal. This is due to a dry finish and a lack of water in dams through large sheep growing areas in the Midlands, northern part of the Great Southern out through the Lakes district.
Lambs are still nice and fresh and bringing around 460c/kg lw at weights from 33 to 36 kg liveweight, a couple of kilograms lighter than normal. Around 22,000 lambs were trucked east in September, but that number is set to increase substantially over the next month. Over the last couple of years when the WA spring shut off early, between 100,000 to 150,000 head were trucked east in October/November.
Relative profitability of sheep enterprises to keep supply low
The relative profitability of sheep enterprises and abundant pastures in pastoral areas and low nucleus ewe numbers compared to three years ago has seen a significant move to rebuild flocks, particularly in outer sheep regions. The high cost of buying stock in and transporting them is further underpinning this move with graziers likely to hold onto their old ewes and not classing hard.
In the inner sheep areas, the need to generate cash flow and the prospect of getting $300/head for cast for age ewes may limit the extent of the rebuild this year with the likelihood that the rebuild may accelerate in 2027 and 2028.
The processing industry should expect mutton sheep availability to remain largely tight over the next two to three years as graziers make a concerted effort to rebuild flocks and increase exposure to wool and sheepmeat. The trend of losing acres to cropping enterprises may reverse over the next two to three years.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator prices for mutton. Source: MLA.
From the rails
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
“We are at the backend of our season with the last of the old lambs being marketed and marking of new season lambs just underway.”
“Had a big sell-off of ewes in autumn and our lamb numbers are expected to be well back to by around half. The season hasn’t allowed producers to replace ewes, so joining’s were much lower. I have heard of some good lambing percentages on the west side of Guyra; around 130 to 140 per cent. but this would be the exception rather than the rule with conditions very tight in traditionally large lamb areas east of Guyra.
“We wouldn’t expect the bulk of our suckers to be ready until Feb/March after a slow start.” - Mark Atkin, Branch Manager, Guyra and Armidale.
“Our lamb market has been red hot the past fortnight with kill lambs pushing into the mid $12’s/kg and feedlots upping the ante of store lambs pushing little lambs to $270/head.”
“The southern season has been slow. It sounds like the feed has gotten away on them and has gone rank and lambs haven’t done that well which has left a bit of a gap.
“The bulk of the southern lambs don’t start till Melbourne Cup, leaving them a six weeks window because they won’t want to be selling suckers in January.” - Ben Emms, Livestock Manager, Emms Mooney, Blayney.
| NSW sheepmeat saleyard indicatorsc/kg dw | ||||
| 19 Oct 26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1116 | 1122 (-6) | 1100 (+16) | 1062 (+54) |
| Trade | 1167 | 1155 (+12) | 1121 (+46) | 1087 (+80) |
| Light | 1140 | 1086 (+54) | 1049 (+91) | 990 (+150) |
| Restocker | 1248 | 1239 (+9) | 1207 (+41) | 1041 (+207) |
| Merino | 1095 | 1069 (+26) | 1021 (+74) | 953 (+142) |
| Mutton | 877 | 864 (+13) | 857 (+20) | 687 (+190) |
Source: MLA
“The Jerilderie Merino Sale on the first Friday in October started out a little bit iffy but when it found its legs it absolutely fired. $524 for the best young ewes with the majority making $300 to $400 and the tail enders making high $200s which looked like a lot of money for the quality of shape that they were.
“Season wise through the middle of my patch, it looks fantastic. There is feed, silage and hay everywhere.
“The Riverina is starting to close in. They're all starting to get prepared for grass seeds by shearing lambs; getting rid of what they can because they're really worried about the seed, which will likely be the next management issue.” - Nick Gray, State Livestock Manager, Victoria and Riverina
| Victorian sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 19 Oct 26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1159 | 1140 (+19) | 1101 (+58) | 1056 (+3) |
| Trade | 1211 | 1156 (+55) | 1149 (+62) | 1070 (+141) |
| Light | 1042 | 1131 (-89) | 1073 (-29) | 971(+71) |
| Restocker | 1206 | 1207(-1) | 1192(+14) | 1028(+178) |
| Merino | 1015 | 1098(-83) | 1042(-27) | 859(+156) |
| Mutton | 827 | 850(-23) | 860(-33) | 681(+146) |
Source: MLA
“We're nearing the end of our ram sales. They've moved down to the southern part of SA, down in the southeast. Good clearances across all breeds, really, some very strong results.
“Border Leicester ram sales have been a bit sticky off the back of a few less ewes, with graziers tending to favour composites.
“Lamb prices have strengthened with rain the week before last, catching some processors short. Lambs have been slow to come on down in the south east which is being reflected in abattoir supply chains with trade lambs back up to $11/kg. On the heavy export lambs, local processors are looking for a few lambs to kill this week.
“Mutton remains around that $8 to $8.20/kg and maybe a bit better to some of our domestic trade processors.” - Scott Altschwager, State Livestock Manager, South Australia.
“In the north of SA, with the abundance of feed in paddocks and soon to come with stubbles, anything that hasn’t been sold yet will be shorn and returned to paddocks.
“Whilst lambing percentages were no doubt up this year, the nucleus of the ewe flock is well down on 3 years ago, in part due to people exiting stock with poor pricing in 2023, and also with the driest season on record in 2024.
“Some clients have been happy to market lambs as stores at rates $230 to $250/head, rather than hold to finish.
“There is no doubt that the abundance of “soft” green feed and lack of starch in the pastures saw lambs impacted. As the days get warmer and the feed starts ‘hardening up’, lambs should soon start meeting target slaughter weights.
“Numbers will inevitably increase into November, but if the processors look to pull the pricing back too much, more producers will shear and retain on pastures and stubbles.” - Damien Webb, Market Livestock Lead, South Australia.
| SA sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 19 Oct 26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1074 | 1057 (+17) | 1110 (-36) | 1071 (+3) |
| Trade | 1073 | 1126(-9) | 1096 (-23) | 1033 (+40) |
| Light | 1096 | 1056 (+17) | 1089 (+7) | 1032 (+64) |
| Restocker | 1147 | 1123 (+24)) | 1167 (-20) | 1026 (+121) |
| Merino | 1039 | 1017 (+22) | 1090 (-51) | 997 (+42) |
| Mutton | 862 | 773 (+89) | 783 (+79) | 679 (+183) |
Source: MLA
“The major blue ribbon ewe sale set a new WA state record of $352 with about 10,000 ewes going under the hammer to an average of $300/head.
“It has been a very strong stud sale season which is coming to an end over the next couple of weeks. We've still got three or four of our major studs to get through this week and about four sales the following week. Strong across the Merinos, terminals and the shedding breeds.
“Mutton is very strong, but not a lot coming on the market and still don't expect much more to come out. Prices are sitting at $7.30c/kg.
“Processors are trying to drag lamb values back with one processor at 880c/kg, but not getting a lot of traction with 920 to 930c/kg available through the yards.
“Across store lamb markets there is a big unload happening, which is probably a couple of weeks earlier than normal due to dry finish and a lack of water in dams through a large part of our big sheep growing area. Lambs are still nice and fresh. Advising clients to get them weaned and get them off. Stores are still bringing around that 460c/kg lw, probably a couple of kilos less than normal for this time of the year. A lot of the lambs going out are around $33 to $36 kg/head on average.
“We shifted a lot of numbers east last week and I expect that to continue for the next three to five weeks. Not sure where the killing lambs are going to come from, but processors seem to think they will find them and not prepared to come out with a forward price to keep the lambs in the state, so they'll likely keep going across the border.” - Wayne Peake, State Livestock Manager, Western Australia.
| WA sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 19 Oct 26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 932 | 911 (+21) | 949 (-17) | 985 (-53) |
| Trade | 927 | 978 (-51) | 998 (-71) | 966 (-39) |
| Light | 916 | 971 (-55) | 976 (-60) | 888 (+28) |
| Restocker | 941 | 964 (-23) | 995 (-54) | 1000 (-59) |
| Merino | 788 | 780 (+8) | 961 (-173) | 786 (+2) |
| Mutton | 659 | 656 (+3) | 674 (-15) | 659 (n/c) |
Source: MLA
“We've had some reasonable rains go through the state 20 to 40mm over the last 10 to 14 days which has made the season in the north.
“The south and east coasts are really struggling; that area only had 2 to 3mm over the same period, so not looking too good at all. The weather forecast is looking promising for the next week.
“The sheep job continues to be strong, even though they tried to pull the job back. Our local works put out a quote around 1020c/kg but we are still finding the money is better heading north; around 1060 to 1080c/kg. The physical market tends to be best, with good trade lambs anywhere from 1120 to 1150c/kg.
“The mutton job found a bit of form over the past fortnight gaining $15 to $45/head and back up to 800 to 850c/kg.” - Gavin Coombe, State Livestock Manager Tasmania.
| TAS sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 19 Oct 26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Trade | 1049 | 1117 (-68) | 1104 (-55) | 995 (+54) |
| Light | 1015 | 1055 (-40) | 1128 (+113) | 815 (+200) |
| Restocker | 1360 | 1073 (+287)) | 883 (+477) | 823 (+537) |
| Mutton | 600 | 822 (-222) | 745 (-145) | 785 (-185) |
Source: MLA
No commentary available.
| Queensland sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 19 Oct 26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 909 | 997 (-88) | 930 (-21) | 956 (-47) |
| Trade | 997 | 957 (+40) | 712 (+285) | 968 (+29) |
| Light | 1105 | 892 (+213) | 986 (+119) | 887 (+218) |
| Restocker | 913 | 845 (+68) | 693 (+220) | 681 (+232) |
| Mutton | 704 | 754 (-50) | 629 (+75) | 575 (+129) |
Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.
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The information contained in this article is given for general information purposes only, current at the time of first publication, and does not constitute professional advice. The article has been independently created by a human author using some degree of creativity through consultation with various third-party sources. Third party information has been sourced from means which Elders consider to be reliable. However, Elders has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy. Links or references to third party sources are provided for convenience only and do not constitute endorsement of material by third parties or any associated product or service offering. While Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in preparation of this article, many factors including environmental/seasonal factors and market conditions can impact its accuracy and currency. The information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and, to the extent permitted by law, Elders disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising out of any reliance upon the information contained in this article. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice specific to your circumstances relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.