Latest sheep market update

 

The latest insights and information on the Australian sheep market as of July 2024.

Prices for sheep and lambs have rallied through June as heavy turnoff shows signs of slowing. Lamb slaughter remains 22 per cent above last year and 27 per cent above the 5 year average, while sheep slaughter is 13 per cent above last year and 47 per cent above the 5 year average. Despite this slaughter ready lambs gained another 16 per cent in value, while mutton prices gained 13 per cent.

Supporting values has been a lift in demand across Middle East and the US which has more than offset lower volumes into China and has helped to absorb higher Australian production. 

Over the next 6 weeks sheep and lamb slaughter will start to fall ahead of the first new season’s lamb in late August/early spring. This will support prices as will a decline in competition from New Zealand as it enters its seasonal slowdown in production.

This chart shows the national weekly lamb slaughter vs last year and the 5 year average. Source: MLA.
This chart shows the national weekly sheep slaughter vs last year and the 5 year average. Source: MLA.

Heavy export lambs lead the way

Heavy export lamb values continue to lead the way. The competitiveness of lamb vs other proteins in the US has been one factor whilst tighter availability of these lambs in Australia is another. The poor spring has meant that growing lambs out this year has proven challenging with some producers opting to sell at lighter weights. This market looks to be well supported until the new season lambs can reach these weights in late spring.

This chart shows heavy export lamb prices this year vs last year and the 5 year average. Source: MLA.
Heavy lamb indicator c/kg lw
  11 July  +/- week  +/- month +/- year
 Aust856+ 60+ 143+ 310
 NSW 856+ 66+ 146 + 325
 VIC 856+ 22 + 137 + 258
 SA863+ 154+ 167+ 302

The table shows the heavy weight lamb saleyard indicator price for each state against last week, last month and last year. Source: MLA

Lamb enjoys increased demand at home

Last year lamb prices fell to levels not seen for nearly a decade. These low prices have done their job and won some domestic demand back for lamb. Trade lamb prices are now working back above the 5 year average. Prices will start to come under pressure by mid to late August when supplies of new seasons lambs hit the market.

This chart shows trade lamb prices this year vs last year and the 5 year average. Source: MLA.
Trade lamb indicator c/kg lw
 11 July +/- week  +/- month +/- year
 AUST 836+ 48+ 135+ 289
 QLD654- 89- 23 + 119
 NSW858+ 63+ 143 + 331
 VIC 799+ 7 + 86+ 210
SA 814 + 110 + 138+ 260
 TAS810 + 76+ 242+ 242
 WA 584- 32+ 43 + 88

The table shows the trade weight lamb saleyard indicator price for each state against last week, last month and last year. Source: MLA

Restocker lamb values flatten

Its almost becoming too late for producers to feed lambs targeting the late winter market. With pastures starting to show the effects of winter, demand for restocker lambs from graziers has started to wane. Soon this old season lambs will have to compete with fresh new season lamb supplies.

This chart shows the national restocker lamb indicator this year versus last year versus the 5 year average. Source: MLA.
Restocker lamb indicator c/kg lw
 11 July  +/- week  +/- month +/- year
 AUS596- 36- 16- 200
 NSW 734+ 60+ 102 + 359
 VIC 605- 108- 66 + 165
 SA 538- 53+ 35 + 194
 TAS----
 WA 440- 1+ 97 + 76

The table shows the restocker lamb saleyard indicator price for each state against last week, last month and last year. Source: MLA

This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for mutton this year vs last year and the 5yr avg. Source: MLA.
Sheep indicator c/kg lw
 11 July  +/- week  +/- month +/- year
Aust431+ 38+ 55+ 88
 QLD296+ 17+ 22+ 164
 NSW444 + 54+ 88 + 89
 VIC 458 + 29 + 31 + 133
 SA 399+ 116+ 46 + 144
 TAS464+ 34+ 240+ 289
 WA 301 + 29+ 68+ 23

The table shows the sheep saleyard indicator price for each state against last week, last month and last year. Source: MLA.

Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.

The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.