Sheepmeat markets were distorted through November by enormous levels of sheep slaughter as southern producers moved to liquidate sheep flocks due to poor seasonal conditions. Attractive processing margins on mutton, as sheep prices fell and global demand for low-cost meat protein soared, encouraged local processors to increase sheep kills at the expense of lambs.
This chart shows Australian weekly sheep slaughter 2024 vs 2023 and five-year average. Source: NLRS
Sheep slaughter in recent weeks has been up to 100,000 head per week higher than the five-year average.
The national sheep flock is in fast decline due to Western Australia’s sell-off and drought in South Australia and next year you will see the mutton price take-off with those sticking to sheep programs well rewarded.
Heavy sheep slaughter thwarted the promising early spring rally in lamb prices, dragging lamb values lower for much of the month. Part of the catalyst for the early Spring lamb rally was that new season lambs were running around four to six weeks behind with lamb weights up to 5 to 10kg lower than normal owing to the tough seasonal conditions. There was also good demand for restocker and light lambs as producers sought stock to put on failed and frosted crops. But this rally faded in November as the lack of follow-up rain and low dam levels saw sheep turnoff increase, and processors shift focus onto mutton.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator prices for lambs in Ac/kg dw. Source: MLA
Lamb values retreated a little during November as processors concentrated on mutton. In the past week lamb prices have increased as sheep supplies tighten, and processors turn to lambs to fill processing schedules.
Just in the past week, prices across the sheepmeat complex have started to lift again as sheep availability tightens and processors turn their attention back to lamb to fill slaughter schedules.
As we move into the New Year, sheepmeat markets will be supported by lower supplies as the impact of flock liquidation in 2023 and 2024, lower ewe matings and lower lambing percentages due to poor seasonal conditions in major lamb producing areas leave a hole in supplies in early autumn. The very heavy sheep processing levels of the past few years means the age profile of the sheep flock is very young which will dramatically reduce the availability of cull ewes in coming years.
This chart shows Australian weekly lamb slaughter levels 2024 vs 2023 and five-year average. Source: NLRS
We expect lamb slaughter levels start to move down towards the five-year average from early next year as the impact of flock liquidation, lower ewe matings and lambing percentages show up in lamb supplies in 2025.
Heavy and trade lambs are being well sought after owing to the difficulty producers have had putting weight on lambs due to the tight Spring conditions. These prices should continue to rise over the Christmas and New Year period and into 2025 as supply tightens right across the sheepmeat complex.
Light lambs are in demand from markets across the Middle East as a cheap source of protein as governments across the region turn to cheap sheepmeat to help bring down food inflation. However, shipments to Iran have eased in recent months as the Israel/Iran conflict escalated and freight access became problematic. Hopefully, tensions can be quickly resolved and allow for the resumption of lamb trade into Iran at previous levels.
Store and restocker lambs should also be well supported. Sales of self-feeders for lamb feeding have spiked in recent weeks as producers see the potential of turning $270/t barley into a +$8/kg lamb price, targeting the hole in early autumn supplies as discussed above.
From the rails
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
“The sheepmeat job was looking a bit crook a fortnight ago with such a heavy sheep turnoff and processors concentrating on mutton rather than lamb because of the big processing margin on sheep. But as mutton supply tightens, the price starts to lift and the processing margin contracts, it will send more demand towards lambs.
“Good to hear that the mutton price is on the move because they are the best buy of anything.” - Peter Homann, Elders National Livestock Manager
| NSW sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 28 November 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 892 | 892 (n/c) | 821 (+71) | 545 (+347) |
| Trade | 817 | 834 (-17) | 808 (+9) | 523 (+294) |
| Light | 714 | 729 (-15) | 679 (+35) | 457 (+257) |
| Restocker | 676 | 705 (-29) | 724 (-48) | 406 (+270) |
| Mutton | 386 | 387 (-1) | 322 (+68) | 184 (+200) |
The table shows New South Wales sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 28 November 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year. Source: MLA
“Reports that self-feeder sales have spiked across the south. With barley at $270/t and lamb $7 to $8.50/kg with prospects of $9/kg next year, this is probably the best lamb feeding opportunity for some years.
“The Weekly Times is talking about a lamb tsunami (a bit sensationalist) coming as lamb producers in Victorian western districts move to sell lambs early due to the season. The market impact will be limited by lamb feeders wanting stock to finish and by processor demand for lambs to fill kill schedules as mutton slaughter tapers off.
“I’ll be doing a webinar on Friday week about lot feeding, particularly lamb finishing and potentially cattle finishing for those who've got the equipment to do so.” - Rob Inglis, Elders Livestock Production Manager, Victoria and Riverina
| Victorian sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 28 November 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 892 | 892 (n/c) | 821 (+71) | 545 (+347) |
| Trade | 817 | 834 (-17) | 808 (+9) | 523 (+294) |
| Light | 714 | 729 (-15) | 679 (+35) | 457 (+257) |
| Restocker | 676 | 705 (-29) | 724 (-48) | 406 (+270) |
| Mutton | 386 | 387 (-1) | 322 (+68) | 184 (+200) |
The table shows Victorian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 28 November 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
“I saw some mutton pricing come through with Fletchers up to $4.40/kg dw on heavy 26kg plus mutton. Gives you a bit of an indication where the mutton price might go.
“We've had 50 to 75mm rainfall through the northeast of the state with more forecast in the coming couple of days.
“On lambs we are getting some pricing together for that Christmas and New Year period. One processor is at $6.70 to $6.80/kg, $0.80/kg off where some of the other players are for that same period. I've seen $8.40/kg but I've even heard at $8.50 to $8.60/kg. That's all looking positive. This rain looks like it's going through the eastern states.
“Harvest has wrapped up here. I'm confident the numbers are going to dry up quick in the north of the state. By the end of this month, I'd say most of the stock from the north and west of SA would have been moved.
“The southeast of SA is swinging into them now but outside of that, I think I think it's going to be slow. I think numbers will dry up and mutton will get harder once they work their way through southeast Victoria and southern NSW.
“With the heavy cull because of the dry there's not going to be too many old ones left around the place, so you'd imagine they will run out quick. So, we've got some positive signs going forward.
“They have had some exceptional first cross sales at Naracoorte in the last couple of weeks, the ewe lamb sale last week was outstanding. They topped out at $315/head and plenty in the $260 to $315/head range with anything that was joinable and ready to go early in the New Year in good demand. Everyone's been happy with that.
“Lambs keep coming in from the south and they are well priced. Not bad considering they have had a very dry period for 12 to 18 months.
“But they have found a bit of rain every week and it's been good for feed growth, particularly south of Naracoorte heading towards Mount Carmel. The stock coming out of there are hard and fresh. Anything that is losing that freshness could get $0.60 or $0.80/kg discount.
“But if they are hard and fresh they are still making $8 to $8.50/kg so that is solid.” - Laryn Gogel, Elders Livestock Sales Manager, SA
| SA sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 28 November 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 827 | 796 (+31) | 818 (+9) | 496 (+331) |
| Trade | 822 | 797 (+25) | 839 (-17) | 490 (+332) |
| Light | 760 | 744 (+16) | 763 (-3) | 461 (+299) |
| Restocker | 717 | 769 (-52) | 694 (+23) | 390 (+327) |
| Mutton | 364 | 289 (+75) | 226 (+138) | 174 (+190) |
The table shows South Australian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 28 November 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
“The word is the mutton job is on the rise, up $0.20/kg dw this week. I had a phone call from a processor, late on Thursday night, saying that he reckoned in the yards over in Victoria, Fletcher paid $5/kg dw for a pen of mutton. If it's that urgent it will put a bit of pressure on over here to help.
“Normally eastern processors don’t buy mutton from WA but it’s good to see prices starting to rise again. We're still a fairway behind, we are sitting at $3/kg with a bit of $3.20/kg around. I expect that the price will keep going as the shortage kicks in.
“That puts a bit of pressure on the lamb market as they need to fill their kill space with lambs, if they can’t find mutton.
“Lambs rose $0.20/kg as well to $7/kg for slaughter lambs. That is as far out as they’d go on the forward price. Whereas the feedlotters have had to buy in at $6.80/kg dw, it doesn't really add up to them. There's not a lot of people that have signed up to that $7/kg dw.
“There's been about 50,000 kill lambs leave WA in the last two weeks and go to slaughter in southern Victoria. They reckon they will be back in February and that their supplies should be right till then.
“The word is, get your lambs shorn and get them on feed and we'll see you in February to prop the market up.
“Rain in the last week has held harvest up through most areas.
“Another interesting call from a live exporter who's got a boat in 10 days. They came in very low at $60-75/head. When they put the price out, thinking that they'd fill the boat easy but with a few hogget orders around, a lot of guys are putting those shipping type stock into the hogget market at $20/head better.” - Wayne Peake, Elders Livestock Sales Manager, WA
| WA sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 28 November 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Trade | 713 | 724 (-11) | 597 (+116) | 530 (+183) |
| Light | 598 | 543 (+55) | 485 (+113) | 378 (+220) |
| Restocker | 538 | 492 (+46) | 366 (+172) | 163 (+375) |
| Mutton | 234 | 261 (+27) | 195 (+39) | 86 (+148) |
The table shows Western Australian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 28 November 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year. Source: MLA
“On the sheep front, positive over here a bit like elsewhere, there's a bit of activity, particularly on mutton. They had a bit of a crank up here this last week. Good mutton anywhere from $2.80 to $4.10/kg dw.
“On the top end of it, in the right category, any heavy sheep $3.50/kg dw. So anywhere from $20 to $25/head improvement over the week before, locally over the hooks, mutton sitting around $2.80/kg dw.
“But they're going to have to ramp it up quickly before they start seeing them get on a boat and leave the state.
“The lamb job, four contracts out for next month, likely at $7.90/kg with over the hooks currently sitting at about $7.80/kg vs $7.40/kg in the saleyards so a little bit of difference there, but promising signs.” - Gavin Coombe, State Livestock Manager, Tasmania
| TAS sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 28 November 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Trade | 758 | 788 (-30) | 755 (+3) | 499 (+259) |
| Light | 746 | 580 (+166) | 686 (+60) | 520 (+226) |
| Restocker | 776 | 563 (+213) | 548 (+228) | 304 (+472) |
| Mutton | 343 | 338 (+5) | 270 (+73) | 87 (+256) |
The table shows Tasmanian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 28 November 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.
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