It has been a difficult month in global grain markets with international wheat values returning to contracts lows and dragging corn lower as improving crop conditions has seen the weather premium extracted from markets.
Rain across key wheat growing regions of the northern hemisphere has improved winter wheat conditions while corn and soybean markets have also been pressured from favourable crop weather in South America.
This chart shows Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT futures prices for wheat and corn in USc/bu. Source: LSEG workstation
The northern hemisphere crop situation is pretty good everywhere; rain in the Black Sea region and in the US and decent conditions in Western Europe. Still, traders are monitoring the impact of a cold snap expected this week over Russian wheat areas. There’s some concern about dryness across northern Europe and some parts of the Black Sea with traders also starting to point towards the rapid deterioration in soil moisture in China's winter wheat area which is also delaying its corn plant. But supply concerns are largely being ignored by markets for now.
Across the southern hemisphere recent showers have eased drought conditions that threatened Brazil's safrinha corn crop, while a dry spell in Argentina is set to help corn and soybean harvesting after heavy rain.
A lack of progress on the trade front and little mention of any changes to US biofuel policies were also factors cited as placing downward pressure on grain values during April.
While international prices have been under pressure, a lack of grower selling and steady demand from the livestock feeding sector has kept east coast delivered market prices firm to slightly higher, despite the $A working against.
US crop conditions improve
More rain is expected in the southern US Plains in the week ahead, which could further ease drought, and help crops in important growth stages. Earlier this week the USDA said winter wheat crop conditions had improved from 45 per cent good to excellent to 49 per cent, mainly on the back of a 6pc lift In Kansas crop ratings.
Meanwhile spring crop planting is off to a solid start despite some flooding in parts of the mid-west and Delta during April.
For spring wheat, grown mostly in the northern Plains, USDA has planting 30pc complete ahead of the 5-year average of 21pc. Corn and soybean plantings are also off to a solid start and are tracking ahead of long-term averages corn is 24 per cent vs 22 per cent 5-year average while soybeans 18 per cent planted vs 12 per cent 5-year average.
East coast grain markets hold firm despite global values and $A working against it
In terms of local grain markets, wheat into east coast feeding zones is holding its value, although it may come under pressure as grower selling increase as new crop production firms and we turn into the next financial year.
Southern graziers are chasing barley for stockfeed after missing out on forecast rain over Easter. The sub-soil is so dry, they are likely to be feeding stock through the winter. While many domestic consumers in the southern states are currently meeting demand with local stocks, the buying arc is expected to extend further north if meaningful rainfall doesn’t arrive soon.
A solid sorghum harvest is wrapping up in southern Queensland and northern NSW with good yields and firm demand as the Chinese chase Australian sorghum for the Baijiu market. In the absence of US sorghum, Australian growers are selling sorghum at milling wheat values. Harvest across central Queensland (CQ) is just getting underway with deliveries into Gladstone.
Oilseeds continue to be at the whim of political manoeuvres with a strong old crop premium being built in and the premium for non-GM canola being maintained.
Winter crop planting underway
It's estimated around 60pc of the Australian winter crop area is being planted into good to excellent conditions. The remainder is less so, with decisions being made around when and what to sow.
Queensland and NSW – north of Parkes/Molong excellent. South of Parkes/Molong patchy, although rain over Anzac weekend helped south-west NSW and western Riverina. Maranoa is ok.
Riverina/South Australia/Victoria – In central and eastern Riverina, Victorian Wimmera, western Mallee and central Victoria and parts of north-east Victoria planting conditions are not ideal. Rain over the Anzac weekend in the Murray Mallee of SA and most of the Victorian Mallee was a godsend and will allow planting into moderate to good conditions.
Western Australia - good/excellent south of Wongan Hills, starts to get patchy north of Wongan Hills into the northern part of Kwinana zone, only far eastern Geraldton zone is ok, rest dry sowing or waiting.
Wheat under pressure despite strong fundamentals
Global wheat supply and demand continue to look tight into 2025/26, not that you would know by looking at price trends. 2024-25 global wheat stocks-to-use (SU) among major exporting countries were estimated at the start of the year at a 17-year low of 14.56pc but have been raised to 15.89pc, largely due to weak Chinese wheat imports.
There is still some uncertainty around global supply. Last week, the USDA’s Kyiv attaché pegged the 2025-26 Ukrainian wheat harvest at 17mt, a 13-year low and down 23pc on the year. Soils were extremely dry during the planting period and profitability is poor, cutting sown area. Russian agencies currently predict the 2025-26 harvest between 80-82mt, same as 2024/25.
US is looking at a slightly smaller plant, Canadian farmers plan to lift production after last year’s dry weather affected harvest, EU production is expected to bounce back from multi-decade lows, Argentina may have a bigger crop due to changes in export tax regime, but around 40pc of the Australian crop is in the balance and it is hard seeing it being any larger than last year at this stage with limited subsoil moisture for significant wheat production areas south of Parkes and Molong (NSW) all the way through the Riverina, southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia.
Wheat into east coast feeding zones is holding its value, although it may come under pressure as grower selling increases as new crop production firms and we head into the new financial year.
In terms of new crop pricing the market is still reasonably unframed, however, $335/t Downs, $360/t east coast port and $380/t west coast port will give you an idea.
This chart shows the wheat prices delivered by track into major WA and Vic ports. Source: CGX
Sorghum the standout and feed barley values grind higher
In the north, sorghum values have come off their highs ($375/t Downs packer, $400/t delivered Brisbane and Newcastle) as Liverpool Plains producers ramp up harvest and were happy to sell down to $370/t track Newcastle (from $385/t last week). The worst of the grower selling may now be over with harvest on the Liverpool Plains almost done. Prices have done well to hold current levels amid a $20-30/t move against in the $A over the past fortnight. Sorghum continues to trade at better than milling wheat values as Chinese chase Australian sorghum for the Baijiu market in the absence of US sorghum.
Chinese Baijiu market supports sorghum values
Baijiu is the world’s biggest-selling liquor, with an industry valued at around $160 billion in 2023, bigger than the combined global market for whiskey, gin, vodka, rum and tequila. It dominates the Chinese spirits market with over 90% share.
In the last full export year 23/24, there was around 10mmt of sorghum exported globally with 90% of the total going to China with US (6.1mt), Aust (2.2mt) & Argentina (1.3mt) accounting for 96% of Chinese imports. Over the past few years, the US has consistently exported around 6-7mt of sorghum to China.
Owing to the current trade war between US/China, US sorghum exports to China have ground to a halt, falling to just 78,316t in Jan/Feb from more than 1.4mt over the same period a year earlier.
Sorghum is not a big crop in China. They grow around 3mt in their northern provinces. Chinese distillers are turning towards Australian producers to fill the void.
Queensland growers are wrapping up harvest. Some off spec sorghum is showing up in late sorghum crops currently being harvested along the NSW/Queensland border region - with some SOR2 (discolouring and a pc shot) and some SORX that has >25pc shot. Early Central Queensland (CQ) sorghum harvest has started with business being done into Gladstone at $355/t track and $380/t delivered truck both ports, the teeth of CQ harvest will start in May with good business expected into Mackay.
This chart shows feed barley and sorghum prices in $A/t delivered by track into east coast ports. Source: CGX
There are some new crop sorghum contracts available at $330/t delivered Downs.
Local delivered feed barley markets have firmed $5/t during the month to $340/t Downs, $315/t Liverpool Plains, $365/t Melbourne/Geelong, $355/t Murray Bridge. Brokers are saying the phones have been ringing from traders down south chasing feed barley for livestock feeding. This is due to the forecast rain system for some southern regions over Easter/ANZAC weekends failing to materialise with hay and lucerne prices also on the rise as producers rush to secure livestock feed given that the season probably won’t recover from here unless weather remains unusually mild. With the days starting to shorten and the nights getting cooler this appears unlikely.
New season feed barley bids are holding around $340/t Downs with other northern markets working off that. Across the south, new crop feed barley is sitting at $300/t southern port or $325/t delivered into Melbourne/Geelong, but would need to do some work to attract grower selling interest
Oilseeds assisted by a cooling in trade tensions big old vs new crop inverse
Canadian canola July futures settled above CA$700/t Friday, ending the week at highs not seen since the end of May 2024, capping a powerful old-crop rally that began in mid-March. This more than made up for a sudden collapse in values that occurred after China announced in early March that it was going to hit Canadian canola oil and meal with 100pc tariffs.
The July-November spread widened further to CA$60/t, with November at a major inverse, reflecting both tight nearby supplies of canola and concerns about demand after the new crop is harvested, when there is greater danger from possible US and Chinese trade actions.
Around 40 Brazilian soybean ships are expected to have docked at China's Zhoushan port in April, up 48pc from last year, as China shuns US suppliers in an escalating trade war. The port is projected to unload a total of 700,000t of Brazilian soybeans this month, a 32pc increase with imports of US soybeans virtually coming to a halt.
The rally in US soybeans has stalled as the industry awaits some news on US bio-fuel policies under the Trump Administration, with US crushing rates slowing and soyoil stocks building amid poor margins. US soyoil stocks are estimated to have swelled to an eight-month high. US crushing rates have slowed in recent months due to tightening soy processing margins and as some crush plants shut down for seasonal maintenance and repairs. The average daily processing rate is estimated to have declined for a third straight month to the slowest daily crush pace since September. Soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US fell to 576 million lbs used in February compared to 654 million lbs in January explaining the buildup in stocks and declining margins.
Despite changes to global grain flows and a weaker $A, Australian canola prices are holding reasonably firm. The large premium for non-GM canola is expected to prompt a significant move in plantings back to CL varieties, although plantings through the Riverina and SA/Vic may be trimmed back due to unfavourable conditions.
New crop pricing ideas have non-GM canola around $800/t and GM $700/t into east coast ports.
This chart shows the prices of non-GM and GM canola delivered by track into major WA ports. Source: CGX
Pulse values fire up again
Pulse values have fired up again gaining around A$100/t despite the adverse move in the $A (chickpeas traded at $1,020/t Darling Downs packers) and despite the re-imposition of Indian tariffs as container packers move to scoop up remaining grower stocks, driven by demand from non-Indian sub-continent markets such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and UAE. Lentils $880/t and faba beans $660/t delivered southern port packers spiked up during the month for any remaining stocks.
There is some early buying interest for new season Faba beans. Drought in South Australia means that traders are expecting to have to source their Egyptian export tonnages from NSW and Queensland like last year. Indicative bids $500/t del Downs, $525/t del Bris Oct/Nov, around $450 ex farm Coonamble.
Indicative new crop chickpeas bids are $825-$840/t del Brisbane, $800-$820/t del Downs Oct/Nov.
This table shows grower trade bids for grain in major Australian grain markets. Source: Clear Grain Exchange.
From the field
This months From the field spotlights the planting activities across the country as reported by Elders field staff in the regions.
Queensland has started planting from Roma, south down to Mungindi with dual purpose and forage oats, canola, faba beans and barley done. Growers are now moving onto wheat. At a rough estimate, planting may be around 30-40per cent complete into good to excellent moisture and ideal planting conditions.
Meanwhile some Queensland growers are wrapping up sorghum harvest with some off spec sorghum showing up in late sorghum crops currently being harvested along the NSW/Queensland border region. Some have SOR2 (discolouring and a percentage shot) and some SORX that has >25 per cent shot. Early Central Queensland (CQ) sorghum harvest has started with business being done into Gladstone at $355/t track and $380/t delivered truck both ports, the teeth of CQ harvest will start in May with good business expected into Mackay.
Northern and Central New South Wales
Growers across the central and north-west NSW are on a similar path to Queensland. North of a line from Parkes to Molong, they are sowing dual purpose and forage oats, faba beans, canola and barley into good moisture and moving into wheat. Planting is around 40-50 per cent (pc) done. With another 20-40mm being received over the weekend, conditions are ideal. Like in Western Australia, there has been a push back towards CL (non-GM canola varieties) and increased faba bean plantings around Coonamble and through the north-west. Planting is around 60 pc done in the central west and 75 pc done across the northern and central tablelands with forage crops and pastures such as Brassica being sown
Growers are hoping that it remains mild through late autumn so some pasture and crop growth can be achieved before it gets too cold.
Southern NSW/Victoria/Riverina
South of the line from Parkes to Molong through to the Riverina growers are planting into less-than-ideal conditions having missed out on that system which has got growers off to a good start north of this line. Rain of 10-50mm over the weekend across much of NSW except for the central and eastern Riverina will have growers in most areas on planters and planting into improved conditions for lower western and south-west slopes and planes and the western Riverina. At a guess planting is around 30-50pc done across southern NSW.
Riverina is very patchy. Patches where storms have occurred have struggling early crops - albeit not grazable. The traditional sheep-wheat belt cockies are dry sowing, however some are between a rock and a hard place as there is patchy moisture - enough to germinate some seeds but not all, so are having to wait. Most have all but given up on canola.
Central and eastern Riverina; Forbes, Cowra down to Young and across to Goulburn are dry and will require rainfall to prompt a widespread plant. Some growers in the area are dry sowing. Around Wagga in the southern Riverina, growers were continuing to dry sow canola and pulses, with some wheat crops being planted. Wheat will start up in a bigger, larger way next week and then they’ll get into barley.
Elders’ agents report that the Monaro (south-east of Canberra ACT to Victorian border) has received rainfall of 20-50mm early this week from mountains to coast. Plenty of healthy grazing crops and soon to be perennial pasture. This will set-up for an above average winter. Estimates are that 80 pc of planting is complete.
In terms of grain markets, southern graziers are chasing barley for stockfeed after missing out on forecast rain over Easter. The sub-soil is so dry, they are likely to be feeding stock through the winter. While many domestic consumers in the southern states are currently meeting demand with local stocks, the buying arc is expected to extend further north if meaningful rainfall doesn’t arrive soon.
Planting is underway across Victoria except for the south-west. Timely rain across most of the Mallee over the Anzac Day weekend has put a spring in the step of grain growers there and they will be planting flat-out but hoping for some follow-up rain to consolidate crops in coming weeks.
Outside of the Mallee, Wimmera and central Victoria growers are taking a steady approach to sowing crops into limited topsoil moisture levels and subsoil moisture levels which are at a big deficit to normal. Planting is 1 to2 weeks behind normal, but it has been a mild autumn, although nights are just starting to get cold. Pulses and dual-purpose crops are going in with canola either being questioned or coming out of programs. Without rain in the next fortnight expect programs to contain a higher proportion of lower risk cereal crops. Estimates are that planting across the state maybe 15-20 per cent complete.
South Australian growers are taking a very cautious approach to planting given current seasonal conditions, with a 25-40mm deficit in subsoil moisture and virtually no topsoil moisture. Around 50 per cent of South Australian grain growers sow by the calendar and have made a start planting pulses and dual-purpose forage crops such as vetch and grazing barley with programs around 15-20pc complete. Growers that have started up the planter are working gentlemen’s hours and taking their time allowing several decision points along the way. These growers would now be considering whether to plant canola and how much risk they are willing to take on. With the days getting shorter and nights turning cooler, every week that goes without a decent autumn break heightens concerns.
Most of SA is in the same position with rainfall totals <10mm in the current growing season with those lucky enough to get thunderstorms planting into 15-25mm. After a long, dry summer subsoil moisture is a fair way down.
The main exception is growers in the Murray-mallee that mostly missed out last year. This year, recent rain over Anzac weekend will allow them to plant into good topsoil with subsoil moisture having been boosted by some summer storms. These growers will be on a similar planting trajectory to growers in south-west NSW.
In Western Australia, with widespread rain in the week leading into Easter, planting is now underway across all cropping zones bar Geraldton (except in the far east). Last week most of the WA wheatbelt received another 20mm of rain, bringing totals for the state to 20-50mm since the start of the month. Anywhere south of Wongan Hills conditions are near ideal and they get better as you head south and east. The Lakes area in south-east WA is off to its best start in living memory. Most of the Geraldton zone is too dry to plant (except far east) and the northern part of Kwinana north zone (north of Wongan Hills) is touch and go sowing into about 20mm without much subsoil.
Conditions are ideal across Esperance, Albany and Kwinana South (south of Great Eastern Highway) with the latest falls coming on top of good falls in early April and falls of similar amounts in March. The eastern areas of these zones are in the best shape with the inner wheatbelt areas a bit tighter, but they are normally more reliable for in-crop rainfall so they will have confidence to plant the full program without any forced changes.
Estimates are that planting is around 50 per cent complete south of Great Eastern Highway (with canola and oats and barley germinated). Planting is much more progressed in the south than the north with growers in the Kwinana zone, south of Wongan Hills around 20-30pc planted which is the opposite of normal. The rain last week across Kwinana north will have growers on tractors, but they will only just be getting going. The exception is some eastern areas, which had stored subsoil moisture from summer storms. The rain has seen growers north of Wongan Hills make a start with 10-20pc planted up to Coorow but into limited subsoil moisture.
Growers in Geraldton zone will likely to be taking a more conservative approach given the long hot summer has dragged out lots of subsoil moisture, and has left high soil temps and dry soils down as far as 80cm. Only growers in the far east of the Geraldton zone around Morawa and Perenjori that received summer rain along with some rain in April will have got a start.
The strong autumn break is a huge relief for southern WA croppers and livestock operators who have suffered through back-to-back low rainfalls years, tight springs, and late crop establishment. Hopefully this a portent for the season ahead. Crops will have some stored moisture to rely on and don’t need to survive from one rainfall event to the next like the last few years and livestock feeding is a distant memory.