The latest insights and information on the Australian cropping market as of September 2025 *
The global grain complex has been under heavy pressure from increased estimates of global grain production - expected to be 3.4 per cent larger than last year.
After remaining relatively steady over recent years, this is a significant step forward in production. Given that consumption generally only increases incrementally from year to year, this will result in a lift in global grain stocks, reversing the trend of the much of the past decade. See charts below.
This chart shows total global annual grain production over the past decade. Source: International Grains Council (IGC).
This chart shows total global grain stocks over the past decade. Source: International Grains Council (IGC).
Increased global grain production this year is being driven by a 10 per cent rise in US corn production and record South American crops. Larger grain production will continue to exert downward pressure on global grain values until there is a significant production threat in a major producing country.
Since the start of the month, abundant production from Northern Hemisphere harvests and an improving outlook for crops in Southern Hemisphere exporters Argentina and Australia (see below) have weighed on grain prices.
This chart shows the USc/lb nearby CBOT futures prices for corn and wheat. Source: LSEG Workstation.
Grain values are still trying to make harvest lows. Disruptions to export logistics and production, plus quality issues with the southern Russian crop has delayed Russian wheat exports. Complications with existing Russian shipments have caused some August shipments to be postponed until September. Markets are now expecting a significant lift in Russian exports in the next few months, with IKAR putting September wheat exports at 4.3mt (from 2mt in July and estimates of 3-4mt in August). After rising during early harvest on slow selling, Russian export prices are now declining, amid more active arrivals of the new crop. Northern hemisphere harvest lows are potentially pushing towards September/October from the traditional June/July period.
There is a lot of wheat available for sale from every major export region; Russian, Ukrainian, Romanian, French, German, Polish and Baltic States. US wheat is cheap and US feed wheat is looking competitive in Asian markets. Importers are in no hurry to buy and are expecting more Russian farmer selling to push down wheat prices in the near term.
This chart shows wheat export prices from European origins in US$/tonne. Source: LSEG.
Through much of last year wheat prices were supported by corn values, which rose on lower than anticipated production across Europe and US. This was due to hot and dry late season conditions and strong corn utilisation rates.
This year though, a 5 per cent lift in US corn plantings (partly because of the difficult trade outlook for soybeans) and ideal growing season conditions are leading to expectations of bumper US corn yields and record US corn production. In contrast to last year, falling corn prices have dragged wheat values lower.
This chart shows US corn production over the past decade. Source: International Grains Council (IGC).
Oilseed markets have been unpredictable. US soybeans values have been under pressure from a lack of Chinese buying and concerns over Trump’s commitment to domestic biofuel policies. China's soybean importers are boosting purchases from Argentina and Uruguay to fill the supply gap left by the absence of US shipments. Chinese processors may buy a record 10mt of soybeans from the two South American exporters during 2025/26. They have already booked 2.43mt from Argentina and Uruguay for shipment from September to May next year. From September 2024 to July 2025, China imported 5mt of soybeans from the two countries. So far China has not booked any US soybeans, despite US moving towards its peak supply period in the final quarter of 2025.
Another large Australian winter crop on the way
Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said Australia's wheat output is projected to drop 1 per cent this year to 33.8mt, although 22 per cent above the 10-year average. Barley and canola output are expected to rise with production of both crops likely to be above average. Despite a very dry and sporadic start to the winter cropping season in South Australia (SA) and Victoria, improved seasonal conditions throughout winter have boosted production prospects across Australia's major winter cropping regions. Australia's canola output in 2025/26 is estimated at 6.4mt. This is up 1 per cent from a year ago, and barley production is set to rise 10 per cent to 14.6mt. In other crops, lentil production is forecast to rise 34 per cent to 1.7mt while chickpea output is likely to drop 7 per cent to 2.1mt.
Crop conditions are strong through Western Australia, central and northern NSW and southern and central Queensland. Recent rainfall has assured at least an average crop through southern cropping areas of SA, south-west, southern Wimmera and central and north-east Victoria and parts of the NSW Riverina. More rainfall is needed to protect against a hot spring in northern cropping areas of SA, the Murray Mallee, northern Mallee, northern Wimmera, Victorian Mallee, south-west NSW and western Riverina.
Medium term outlook cloudy, tough harvest selling season ahead
There is some talk that US corn yields may not quite reach lofty expectations. However, the US corn crop will still be a record. Despite solid grain usage (both here and abroad) due to lower prices, the medium-term outlook remains difficult for cereals. Recently concerns about hot and dry conditions across southern Europe (which has trimmed corn and sunflower production estimates) have been alleviated by drought relieving rain, while US conditions appear favourable for the upcoming winter plant.
With few global production concerns, markets will be looking for a rise in demand to help clear global wheat and feed grain stocks. Delays to the Black Sea export program means that a lift in Black Sea selling will run into a period where the US is looking to offload its bumper corn crop. This will create downward price pressure, moving into the southern hemisphere harvest and a difficult medium-term outlook for local cereal prices.
The price outlook for canola is less certain with global oilseed trade flows affected by Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and US soybeans.
Local sorghum growers face a similar dilemma. If the US remains locked out of the Chinese market this will create opportunities to sell sorghum at a premium into the price inelastic Chinese Baijiu market as per last season.
The pulse market has gone quiet as India digests shipments of Canadian yellow peas from the recent large Canadian harvest.
Grower harvest selling to focus on canola, pulses and barley
A smaller than usual percentage forward was sold, due to prices falling through the year and limited pricing opportunities. As a result, northern growers are preparing bunkers to store grain and avoid harvest selling pressure and prices below $300/t farm gate. There is plenty of grower interest in selling barley off the header, but with little export competition the trade/end user is not showing a price that the grower likes. Canola and pulses will be this year’s cash crops in the north.
Cash strapped southern growers (south of Parkes and through SA/Victoria) will need to sell to generate cash flow. At current price levels they will focus on canola, lentils and barley, but harvest pricing pressure on cereals is likely.
In the west, we suspect that there has been a lower amount of cereals sold than normal, and that the WA grower will concentrate on selling canola at current values. Southern WA growers that need to sell cereals for cash flow may entertain some forward sales, as grower selling off the harvester in the north will most likely result in prices falling through the WA harvest period.
This chart shows historical and estimated total winter grain and wheat production in ‘000 tonnes. Source: ABARES.
Corn and local carryout drag wheat prices lower
International markets are trying to make seasonal lows, but local buyers can only see a carryover of stock from last year with another big harvest just around the corner.
Old crop wheat bids are struggling to hold $330/t delivered Downs and there is almost zero demand for milling grades with H2 bids no better than SFW1 anyway. Griffith or Riverina feed zone prices are roughly the same with southern markets pricing off this and stuck at $360/t Melbourne/Murray Bridge (SA).
New season bids are also under a bit of pressure. Growers have been looking to make some forward sales but the lack of engagement from end users is making this a difficult process. It is difficult to get excited about these prices but it’s hard to mount an argument as why they should rally any time soon. We need an unexpected event to change the global wheat market sentiment. New crop bids are converging towards old crop values and maybe a little weaker as harvest nears.
This chart shows the track prices for APW wheat delivered WA and VIC port in $A/t. Source: LSEG Workstation.
Barley tough to move for now
Barley remains a battle in local markets. Old crop bids softened as growers clean out the last of their silos and find that end users are mostly covered through to harvest.
New season bids are also under pressure as buyers continue to be hesitant to engage with the market in any meaningful manner. We have seen a couple of end users post-harvest delivery bids, but they only seem to last for an hour or so before getting filled and pulled.
The market is sitting around $310/t Downs, $300/t Riverina, $345/t Melbourne & Murray Bridge.
New crop markets are not as well defined. Values seem to be around old crop levels, maybe a touch weaker for an volume sales.
This chart shows the track prices for feed barley delivered WA and Vic port in $A/t. Source: LSEG Workstation.
Recent rain to ensure another solid sorghum plant
There is still sorghum dribbling onto the market. Bids have lost around $25/t in delivered markets this week to now be trading at $325/t delivered Downs. Following recent rain across sorghum growing areas in the north, there will be plenty of sorghum getting sown as soon as the soil temperatures warm up.
A solid plant should see the new season sorghum market becoming more active. Delivered Downs bids are still around $320 to $325/t with Brisbane bids still showing $345/t. This is the same pricing point that we were seeing at this time last year.
Future price direction will once again be dependent on Chinese buying. If the US/China can settle their trade war and US exports to China pick up and displace Australian sorghum, local prices will revert to a discount to wheat and barley and trade the northern feed zone grain balance sheet (which does not look all that supportive).
If US sorghum continues to be locked out of China, it will again need Australian sorghum for Baijiu production and local sorghum could again trade at a premium to milling wheat values. The idea would be to sell into any sorghum price spikes where values trade at a premium to feed wheat and barley.
Canola resumes down trend
In canola, the market has been rocked by China’s decision to apply to 75.8 per cent tariff on Canadian canola seed exports, escalating a trade dispute that began with Canada’s tariff on Chinese electric vehicle imports. Expectations of larger crops in EU (up 19 per cent to 20mmt) and thoughts that favourable late season weather in Canada will see production at the higher end of the StatCan projected range (17.2 to 18.9mt), have also weighed down prices. Rapeseed supply in Europe is also expected to be supported by additional imports from Canada, given the prohibitive tariffs on Canadian canola exports to China have freed up nearly 4mt of supply for other markets.
China's soybean importers are boosting purchases from Argentina and Uruguay to fill the supply gap left by the absence of US shipments. Chinese processors may buy a record 10mt of soybeans from the two South American exporters during 2025/26. They have already booked 2.43mt from Argentina and Uruguay for shipment from September to May next year. From September 2024 to July 2025, China imported 5mt of soybeans from the two countries. So far China has not booked any US soybeans, despite US moving towards its peak supply period in the final quarter of 2025.
Reuters is reporting that Australia is close to finalizing an agreement that will reopen the Chinese market to Australian canola. Australia, the world’s second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the China – the largest canola import market, since 2020 due to phytosanitary requirements aimed at preventing the spread of blackleg disease. Reuters says China is allowing Australian exporters to ship five trial canola cargoes. The shipments would carry between 150,000 and 200,000t of Australian canola.
The negotiations have focused on addressing China’s requirement that canola shipments contain less than 1 per cent admixture — impurities such as chaff and broken seeds - and its concerns of blackleg contamination. Unlike Canadian exporters, who clean their canola before shipping, Australian suppliers often exceed this limit.
At this stage if Canadian canola and US soybeans remain locked out of China, there will be increased pressure on GM veg oil markets globally as the Canadian and US exporter look to rehome displaced exports. This may widen the premium for non-GM canola, with GM canola coming under pressure. If China accepts Australian canola however, their buying has the potential to support the GM canola market at values above excess of current levels. Sell canola on any decent price spikes on current levels, place your target price orders as canola may offer the best harvest selling opportunity if the cards fall our way.
This chart shows the non-GM and GM canola price delivered WA port in $A/t, Source: LSEG.
Pulse market focus shifts away from India
The chickpea market has gone quiet in the past month. Buyers seem to be focussing on the potential size of the Australian crop and have been reducing their bids on the expectation of grower selling. Bids have lost $60 to $70/t and there are a few less buyers active.
The shipping stem out of Brisbane is set up for a big chickpea export program through November/December/January. Hopefully those merchants that have sales into India, and ships and shipping slots organised, will be there to buy at harvest. However, we’ve also got the makings of a large 2mt+ plus crop, and demand that will be tempered by the Indian 10 per cent tariff.
Egyptian buyers seem to have adequate supplies of beans. There is some potential carryover from large Australian imports last season, and the arrival of freshly harvested supplies out of the UK and Baltic countries. Bids for faba beans have fallen the past month, down $55/t to around $420/t Wimmera packer.
At this stage it’s a waiting game for new crop numbers to be at levels where we may see grower selling.
This table shows grower trade bids for grain in major Australian grain markets. Source: Clear Grain Exchange.