Independent Livestock Analyst, Simon Quilty of Global Agri Trends explores the global demand dynamics driving Australian lamb prices.
Australian lamb prices have been elevated for two and a half years, doubling in value during that period. The last 12 months has seen a 20 per cent (pc) rise. Even though lamb production reached a record level of 597,000 MT CWE in 2025, this points to exceptional demand in global markets, particularly in America.
US domestic retail pricing for April this year saw lamb prices at $9.44 USD/lb, equivalent to $29.00 AUD/kg, setting a record. These prices are reflected in the US domestic on-the-hoof lamb price, which is also at a record level of $5.77 USD/lb, or $17.00 AUD/kg equivalent. The strong retail demand is reflected in the sale barn prices, and what is surprising is that it is three times the retail value of pork and chicken.
In the last 12 months, US lamb retail prices have risen by 13.8 pc, compared with mild increases in chicken retail prices by 0.9 pc and in pork retail prices by 2.6 pc.
| April 2026 | Price / lbs | Change vs. YA |
| Fresh beef | $7.58 | +6.3 pc |
| Fresh chicken | $3.11 | +0.9 pc |
| Fresh pork | $3.26 | +2.6 pc |
| Fresh turkey | $4.40 | +18.6 pc |
| Fresh lamb | $9.44 | +13.8 pc |
During that period, Australian lamb prices have risen, with all import cuts increasing in value: French racks up 22 pc, foreshanks up 29 pc, and shoulders up 32 pc.
America is Australia’s largest lamb buyer, with 84,243 MT shipped there last year, accounting for a quarter of Australia's exports. This influence of the heavy lamb market now permeates into all lamb categories in Australia, with a 99.5 pc correlation with both light lamb and trade lamb.
In short, the US market today determines on-the-hoof lamb prices for Australia’s domestic and all international markets; the ability to feed light and medium lambs to turn them into heavy lambs provides an important alternative for exporters and producers.
Australia’s supermarkets are now beholden to the US market when setting lamb prices.
Thanks to America and the price premium that lamb enjoys as an elite product, it now trades at premiums once reserved for products like Wagyu in beef; it has truly become the new Wagyu in the sheepmeat world.
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