Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 24 to 30 August 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
At a glance:
- Welcome rain, particularly for Western Australia and northern NSW and southern Queensland
- Livestock prices firm to higher supported by rainfall
- Grain higher on uncertainty surrounding Black Sea exports
- Wool rebounds on small offering
- Cotton firms on worsening US crop conditions.
Weather
Some very welcome rain of 25 to 50mm across most areas of the Western Australian wheatbelt. Falls were patchier and lighter (15 to 25mm) on the east coast with the Eyre Peninsula and the eastern Riverina getting the best of it. Most cropping areas of northern NSW received rain while in Queensland most of the rain fell in south-western cropping region.
Get weather forecasts for your location on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar traded up to 72USc towards the end of last week after a strong local inflation read. It eased to 71.5USc after a speech from US Fed Chairman Warsh that said US inflation remained too high and higher US interest rates may be needed.
Livestock
The local cattle market remained unchanged last week with the rain helping to limit saleyard numbers and provide some restocker buying support. The exception was restocker heifers that firmed on some bargain hunting after the rain. This category has seen the most price volatility over the past month, waxing and waning with weather forecasts.
The US imported beef market was weak to lower with trading activity slow after Trump announced that the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) would be waived for 90 days beginning in September to potentially bring in up to 300,000 tonnes of imported beef trimmings. The quota will be administered in three rounds of up to 100,000 tonnes in the months of September, October and November. Weaker demand continued to pressure US domestic and imported lean and trimmings prices. The announcement came too late in the week for any specific deals to be done, but it promises to shake up the US imported manufacturing beef market with this volume representing over 50 per cent of the quarterly beef imports and potentially a larger share of imported trimmings over the next quarter. It will allow Brazilian beef exporters to extend the discount to Australian offers to win import business. Australia is likely to be most affected with significant ramifications for cow and manufacturing steer values.
The sheepmeat complex firmed on lower yardings due to the rain and moved back to the top end of its recent range of $10.50 to 11.50/kg for lamb and $8.50/kg for mutton.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
Black Sea tensions pushed international wheat values to their highest levels since February 2023. Ongoing attacks on port infrastructure and uncertainty surrounding Black Sea grain export flows is pushing demand to other origins. During the week both Russia and the Ukraine warned that the upcoming wheat plant could be affected as wheat prices within the Black Sea region plummet and the large bulk of last harvest remains unsold. Prices are up by 30 per cent since the start of the year with half that gain in the past six-weeks.
There is some chatter about renewed Chinese interest in Australian barley as Chinese crop production comes under pressure from very hot weather.
Local grain prices were firm to higher on strength in export prices despite last week’s rain improving crop prospects. The lift in prices last week attracted some local grower selling with most traders pulling their bids by late in the week having bought enough.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
The Australian wool market rebounded strongly this week, reversing much of the previous week’s decline as buyers competed for the smallest three-centre offering in almost six years. The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) gained 41 cents, or 2.3 pc, to close at 1,853 A¢/kg. Chinese buying demand continues was strong with low inventory levels through the early-stage supply chain and concerns about available supply.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Cotton
Global cotton futures climbed above the key 90c/lb level for the first time since early 2024 last week on persistent concerns over deteriorating US crop conditions. The USDA's latest crop progress report showed US cotton crop conditions at 37pc in good/excellent condition versus 54pc a year ago. Local prices are up to $656/bale Dalby and $646/bale Moree. Cottonseed $540/tonne ex Gin.
Sugar
Raw sugar finished the week at 17.56c/lb having earlier hit its highest since April 2025 at 18.66c/lb on selling from Thai and Brazilian mills that took the opportunity of good prices to hedge their exports. Excess rains have slowed the cane harvest in Brazil which is supportive of prices because it can reduce the amount of sucrose in the cane. Against that, however, depressed prices for cane-based ethanol in Brazil continue to tempt mills to ramp up sugar output at the expense of the biofuel. Australian based sugar analyst, Green Pool, lowered its estimate of the global sugar deficit for 26/27 on improved prospects for production in India.
Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.
Spotlight on: US lamb production
Talk that Trump might apply an additional tariff on lamb imports as part of the United States International Trade Commission (ITC) investigation into lamb imports has export processors wary about offering forward prices more than a couple of weeks out. The investigation commenced in mid-July with the deadline for submissions the end of August. Australia’s argument is that our imports are complimentary to domestic US production and that lamb would fade into obscurity in the US without imports. US domestic lamb production has been in decline for decades. The ITC public hearing is on 16 October. If imports are found to the causing injury (or a threat thereof), then ‘remedy’ discussions occur.
This chart shows annual US lamb production and imports. Source: USDA.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.
