Weather
Western Australia received very good rainfall of 25 to 50mm across most of the wheatbelt with heavier falls in the south-west. One Elders client reported falls of 180mm and 130mm over the week. Very patchy rainfall elsewhere with the west coast and upper Yorke Peninsula of South Australia picking up 10 to 15mm. Most rainfall in NSW/Victoria was limited to areas east of the ranges. There was a band of rainfall across northern and central Queensland to the coast of 15 to 25mm that may only serve to send dry feed sour. The forecast looks better than it has done for most of the year, with 15 to 25mm for most southern Australian cropping areas.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian $ remains stuck at the upper end of its most recent trading range, supported by $US weakness as US economic data deteriorates. As Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) passes, the US will move to fund deficits therefore devaluing the $US.
Livestock
Cattle markets: Numbers outside Queensland continue to shrink as most southern livestock operators have paired herds back to nucleus female breeding stock, having turned off stock earlier or sent them away. Southern processors remain active in Queensland markets which is keeping northern processors honest. Direct to work quotes in Queensland are at a 50c/kg lw discount to southern works, which is around the transport cost to truck them south. Southern store cattle bought by northern operators early in the year are doing well on oats, but won’t be ready until late August. Feeder markets are grinding higher with a $1/kg lw premium for black cattle and 10-30c/kg lw premium for HGP free. Feedlots are keen to take heifers that have been scanned not in calf otherwise they cop a big discount. There are opportunities starting to open up on lighter cattle. Central Queensland weaner sales started this week, with 5,000 today at Gracemere and 7,000 at Emerald, which will test the market. International beef prices continue to rise as US beef production falls. Steiner is reporting US fed cattle slaughter is down 7.2 per cent for the week, the 13th straight week of declines.
For more insights, refer to our latest cattle market update.
Sheepmeat market: It is virtually the same for sheepmeat, with strength across the entire market as supplies tighten and feedlots empty out. Heavy export and trade lambs were around $11/kg cw with feeders keen to own store lambs at under $10/kg cw and the mutton price holding at just below $7/kg cw.
For more insights, refer to our latest sheep market update.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Spotlight on: Global food commodity prices
According to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization global food commodity prices edged higher in June, supported by higher meat, vegetable oil and dairy prices. Meat prices rose to a record 126 points, now 6.7 per cent above June 2024, with all categories rising except poultry. Bovine meat set a new peak, reflecting tighter supplies from Brazil and strong demand from the US. Poultry prices continued to fall due to abundant Brazilian supplies.
Higher international beef prices should support further rises in the price of Australian cattle, particularly if supplies tighten (if southern season improves). Heavy turnoff from Queensland is continuing to be the main factor suppressing local cattle values. The chart below shows the price of 90CL (lean) cow beef exported to the US. Source: MLA.
This chart shows the price of 90CL (lean) cow beef exported to the US. Source: MLA.
Grain
Grain prices are under pressure from the rapid progress of the northern hemipshere harvest. News that EU import quotas for Ukraine grain have finished and talk that US was about to sign a deal to export 2mt of wheat to Indonesia, means more competition for Australian wheat in its traditional Asian export markets. Only limited selling activity is holding local prices but with a large northern crop looming and export demand weak, prices are under pressure.
In the south, crops remain in the balance which is seeing limited selling meet some livestock feeding demand which is supporting prices.
The northern hemisphere corn crop only needs to navigate the summer and the world will again be well supplied with grain. Not much good news to report for grain farmers.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
Minimal change to the leading indicator (EMI) was recorded this week, but large movements occurred across the type range. The highlight was crossbred wool types, which were highly sought and 15-25c/kg dearer. Mid micron Merino wools drifted downward 15c/kg whilst wools finer than 18micron and broader than 20micron had gains of 5-15c/kg.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Sugar
Sugar prices rallied on forecasts of a possible frost event in Brazil later this month to 16.38USc/lb. Sugar prices have plummeted over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.