Weather
Very patchy rain of 15 to 50mm through parts of Central Queensland, southern Queensland and parts of northern NSW. There is some rain in the forecast towards the end of next week for eastern parts of NSW and Victoria, with a chance that it could reach parts of central NSW and the Riverina that are in desperate need of rain.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar continues to hover around 64USc with strong local employment and wages data pointing to a continued tight domestic labour market which has cast doubt on RBA plans to ease rates. In the US, inflation data has been tame, indicating firms are choosing to absorb tariffs rather than pass them on, which will crimp company profits. The University of Michigan’s survey of US consumer sentiment dropped again to 50.8 in May 2025, down from 52.2 in April and well below market expectations of 53.4. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, the lowest reading since June 2022, and the second-lowest on record, as mounting inflation expectations and renewed concerns over tariffs continue to weigh on sentiment. The expectations gauge (46.5 vs 47.3) worsened to its lowest read ever in the 45-year history of the survey.
Livestock
Cattle markets moved lower under similar influences to recent weeks as forced liquidation out of the south meets the start of the northern turnoff. Processors will continue to work through large available supplies in May/June until we see a change in weather patterns across the south. US import prices were marginally higher in slow to moderate trade as demand improved in the lead up to the Memorial Day holiday period. Stronger US domestic beef prices supported the market with lower US consumer sentiment not yet showing up in beef demand.
Lamb markets tightened as supplies of suitable lamb underpinned a rise in values across the sheepmeat complex. Only restocker lamb and mutton were a bit softer. Good heavy and trade lambs are selling consistently in $8 to $8.50/kg cw range with lighter lambs a level down at $7.50 to $8/kg cw, similar to restocker lamb values. Mutton with good fat cover and weight is priced around $6/kg cw with off types a bit harder to place around $5/kg cw. Expectations are that supplies will tighten more significantly than in recent years as we head into winter with processors offering forward contracts at above current pricing for July/Aug.
Chart of the week
US consumer sentiment is now down almost 30 pc since January 2025. While most measures of sentiment were largely unchanged, the index was affected by current assessments of personal finances which sank nearly 10 pc on the basis of weakening incomes. Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60 pc in April with uncertainty over trade policy continuing to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy.
This chart shows an index of US consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan. Source: University of Michigan
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
International grain values were under pressure from improving US crops and a strong corn planting pace. Limiting losses was some renewed export interest for US soft red winter wheat, which, at US$215 to $220/t FOB, is $10/t cheaper than French/Black Sea wheat. Concerns about China’s production prospects also lent some support with more hot and windy weather forecast for northern provinces next week.
The next 14 days shows no widespread rainfall in the forecast, which is expected to push local feed grain values higher and continue to see users pricing grain further north into NSW to meet demand. The domestic barley market is trading above export parity at $345/t versus export parity around $320/t, reflecting strong local demand. Upcountry barley values have risen to $390/t SA, $370/t Western Victoria and Goulburn Valley, $340/t Riverina and $300/t ex farm Walgett and pricing the other way into $330/Downs.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
Wool prices stabilised as the 90-day tariff pause between US/China injected some market confidence and saw around 40 per cent (pc) of the offering purchased by Chinese top makers. Drought conditions are impacting supply with cut/head and yields continuing to decline along with quality.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Sugar
Sugar remains under pressure from improving Brazilian crop conditions which are favorable despite a slow start to the harvest, building expectations of a global surplus of sugar in 2025/26.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.