Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 6 to 11 October 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
At a glance:
- Rain is forecast for dry areas
- Livestock supplies tighten on rain forecasts
- USDA shocks market by lifting corn yield - at odds with private forecasters
- Wool market consolidates, spreads between fine and medium wools widen.
Weather
Last week there were scattered showers and storms of 10 to 25mm through the west coast and pastoral areas of South Australia, across central and southern Queensland and parts of northern New South Wales.
The forecast is showing widespread rain of 25 to 100mm for the Northern Territory, Queensland and northern and central NSW. Up to 100mm is forecast through the driest areas of Central and southern Queensland and along NSW border areas through the NSW Northern Tablelands.
Get weather forecasts for your location on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar has steadied after a month-long downswing, tied to US dollar strength on rising US interest rates. The RBA’s September meeting minutes due to be released tomorrow may reinforce previously hawkish rhetoric on Aussie rates and provide some respite from recent selling.
Livestock
Forecast rainfall for the north changed the tone in local livestock markets last week. The draw for tomorrow’s sale at Roma was down by around half on Friday and buyers are struggling to source stock out of the paddock. There has been a noticeable decline in the quality of northern stock offered over the past month and graziers may be hoping that forecast rainfall allows them to freshen cattle quality. Rain for northern NSW may prevent another round of forced cattle sales, although most are relatively lightly stocked after the big turnoff in late autumn. Restocker and feeder cattle were 2 to 3 per cent (pc) higher while slaughter cattle were virtually unchanged.
Beef export market conditions remain constrained. There is light at the end of the tunnel however, with some processors freezing product down for the quota resets in north Asia on 1 January. In the US, the fed cattle futures are starting to price in reduced supply early next year because of lower summer placements.
On the sheep front an early turnoff may be about to commence across the WA Midlands, upper Great Southern and out through the Lakes as pasture conditions and on farm water supplies tighten with large numbers of store lambs (30 to 35kg live) headed for eastern states at $4.60kg lw. Tighter supplies saw sheepmeat markets up to 5 pc stronger last week.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
International grain markets were knocked back a peg by the USDA making a surprise increase to US corn yields which increased the size of the US corn crop and raised projected corn end stocks. That said, the strong fundamental picture that has driven the grain market rally since March remains in place. Global grain production remains under pressure and a big chunk of surplus grain is locked up in Black Sea countries and faces a difficult and expensive route to market. Learn more in our October cropping update, published Friday.
In southern Queensland, the barley and wheat harvest has just started with yields well down on last year. Queensland’s feedlots will need to truck barley in from NSW for much of 2027 which is keeping northern markets trading at significant premiums to southern Australia. In the south, new crop wheat prices in South Australia and Victoria remain inverted as the prospects for very large crops is keeping prices in check. In Western Australia, a slightly larger than average crop should have a clear path to export markets. Expect canola and barley to be cash crops with growers more patient on wheat sales.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
Wool prices stabilised this week at 1820c/kg. Spreads between fine and medium wools have widened considerably to 650c/kg from 200c/kg at the start of the calendar year. A larger rostered offering this week will test the market’s strength.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Cotton
Global cotton futures eased after Friday’s USDA supply-and-demand report raised projections for US cotton production and ending stocks, offsetting support from concerns that Hurricane Isaias could damage crops in key growing regions. The report raised the forecast for 2026/27 US cotton production by 2 pc to 13.44 million bales and increased ending stocks forecast by 6 pc to 3.80 million bales.
A leading analyst expects the global cotton market to swing to a 5.6 million-bale deficit in 2026/27 from a 0.8 million-bale surplus in 2025/26, citing production declines in major producers including China, Australia and the United States. A shift to a global cotton deficit should support prices over the medium term.
Sugar
Sugar consolidated around 19-month highs at 20.25US/lb with the El Nino weather event affecting sugar production across the world: waterlogged cane in Brazil, drought-hit beet in Europe, stalled planting in western India.
Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.
Spotlight on: US corn yields
The USDA stunned the market Friday night by increasing the US corn crop estimate. Harvest is off to a very slow start, and so far, the story across much of the grain belt is that the soybeans look surprisingly good and corn poor. Most private crop watchers believe that the US corn crop is shrinking, despite what the USDA reported with old stocks likely to be in high demand as we get into the new year. Time will tell as more combines hit the fields over the coming weeks.
This chart shows the US corn yields. Source: USDA
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.
