Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 18 to 24 May 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
Take away points:
- It has started to rain again in New South Wales (NSW) with more forecast.
- Livestock market shows strength as Queensland (Qld) graziers hold fire and southern supplies taper.
- Local grain market eases rain and improved planting conditions for nortnern NSW and southern Qld.
- Wool prices hold but buyers become more selective at higher values.
Weather
Good rainfall of 25 to 50mm hit some of the driest parts of the east coast from south-west Queensland (Qld) through most of New South Wales (NSW), only missing parts of the border regions and the south-west NSW. The rain got patchier as it moved south but central and far eastern Victoria (VIC) and western Tasmania (Tas) (even parts of the south-coast) got 10 to 50mm. The eight day forecast looks great with 25 to 100mm for all major Australian winter cropping areas, with the largest amounts expected to hit the driest areas. The rainfall will be excellent for those with crops in the ground and may have northern growers rethinking plans to take a holdiay rather than planting a winter crop.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
Flat as a tack at 71.5USc for most of the week. It doesn’t know what to do with bulls tempted by hopes of Strait of Hormuz re-opening and Trump claims than an MOU with Iran was close. Although he later tempered expectation by saying the blockade remains in place & there is no rush for a deal. US bond markets are starting to tell him otherwise. The US ten year Treasury yield has surpassed 4.60 per cent, marking its highest level in over a year. As bond yields rise, governments face increased pressure to manage their debt. Historically, shifts in the bond market have influenced political decisions. Current conditions may similarly impact the US approach to the Iran conflict amongst other things.
Livestock
Another good week on local livestock markets with rain easing selling pressure.
Cattle markets gained 2 to10 per cent (pc) with restocker heifer categories the biggest mover. Qld producers flush with cash and feed are withholding cattle from the market until the new tax year with this, and increased competition from southern processors and feedlots, forcing rates up.
There has been a big beef trade show, SIAL, in China, this week with trade sources saying there was an overall lighter turnout compared to previous years. With weak domestic consumption, high stocks, and tight cashflow as possible reasons. Beef sale deals have been light with Brazilian and Australian exporters worried about triggering their Chinese Tariff rate quota (TRQ). Australian officials were in China lobbying for a reallocation of leftover quota usage or removing chilled/bones from quota calculations. With US beef recently regaining entry and China’s domestic market still under strain, their efforts will likely be in vain. The loss of the very important Chinese offal market for Australian exporters could have ramifications on local beef cattle values as we don’t have alternative markets that will buy offal at the volumes or prices that China does.
US import prices were slightly lower, and trading remained slow with weaker food service demand pressuring forward prices. Trump surprised the market by announcing that he was preparing an executive order to temporarily suspend the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) in a bid to lower US beef prices. This would remove the 26.3pc tariff advantage that Australian beef enjoys over most other origins. This would be a significant development, but it seems that the proposal has met with strong pushback from the US cattle sector. US contacts have suggested something may happen linked to Trump needing a win on cost-of-living pressures before the November mid-terms. The Brazilians are already talking about raising their prices in response, which would partly negate the impact on Australia.
On a more positive note, lamb trade stands outperformed beef with some reporting 100 container lots sold in last week for smaller players. The Chinese sheepmeat market has been struggling in 2026 but mainly on the mutton side with total Australian sheepmeat exports down -41pc, with mutton down -55pc but lamb exports to China up 7pc. Australia may be benefiting from less NZ competition on lamb as their export availability tightens. Turning China from predominantly a mutton market to a lamb market would be a huge win for the Australian sheepmeat industry.
Lamb values strengthened this week back to $11 to 11.50/kg dw range, although agents are reporting that spot processor bookings are hard to find with processors working through lamb contracted earlier. Mutton steady at $8/kg dw. By the looks of things processors are not prepared to pay extreme rates and will work through lambs previously contracted and if supplies aren’t available at reasonable prices will opt to reduce shifts or close for seasonal maintenance.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
The market softened this week both here and internationally. Locally it was influenced by rain on the east coast, although values were supported somewhat by the rain missing key Downs supply areas. This week’s rainfall forecast will add further pressure and reduce the domestic market premium that northern markets have been building during the prolonged dry period.
It’s not clear why international markets softened. Maybe because there was no tangible deal between the US/China on grains but also some profit taking after markets bounded higher on the bullish USDA report earlier in the week. US prices have moved well ahead of European values. The key takeaway from news last week is that Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA), which are amongst the world’s largest grain importers, will produce more grain this year after several years of drought (good seasons are the exception rather than the norm in this part of the world which is why they are large importers) which may limit import demand and price upside. Historically this has had more impact on barley markets, but Australian exporters have pivoted away from to China due to increased competition from European exporters; although, European exporters will probably target China with grain displaced from MENA increasing export competition to Australian exporters.
Markets this week will trade US crop condition ratings and potentially the improving production outlook for Australia. They will be keeping an eye on Spring planting conditions in Russia and Canada which caused delays and pushed past optimal planting windows.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
The Australian wool market edged slightly higher this week, with the Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) gaining four cents to close at 1,880Ac/kg. Crossbred and cardings segments remained the best performing areas of the market and although the market remains broadly well supported, buying activity is increasingly selective. Industry thinking is that buyers have moved from an under to overbought position and buying activity will be less frantic.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Cotton
Cotton firmed on Friday, in step with grains and financial markets, but a stronger dollar, improved weather and expectations of more acreage kept saw prices record a weekly loss. The sharp recent price dip could well be the correction this market required, allowing mills to step up buying. Cotton eased from a recent peak of 84USc/lb to 77.7USc/lb by the end of last week. This has impacted local prices that have pulled back to $575-585/bale Moree/Dalby (from $615-625/bale a fortnight ago). Cottonseed is also back to $540/tonne (from $585/tonne before the rain) on the back of reduced grazier demand due to some recent rain.
Sugar
Sugar prices were flat this week with the market underpinned by concerns that it could flip into deficit next season due to a possible El Nino weather event, although good current supplies cap gains. The developing El Nino weather pattern could lead to lower sugar production and ethanol output could rise in Brazil and India due to the increase in oil prices, reducing raw sugar output.
Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.
Chart of the week
Are Queensland rural property prices correlated with cattle values? Looking at the chart below I would say yes.
Source: MLA & Proptrack | This chart shows QLD median rural porperty prices vs national saleyard feeder steer values
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.