Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 15 to 21 June 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
At a glance:
- Rain across the west and south
- Livestock supply and demand dynamics about to change
- Grain prices ease on start of northern hemisphere harvest
- Wool prices within reach of all-time highs
- Cotton prices hold as local basis strengthens.
Weather
It was another good weather week, particularly across the west and south, with 15 to 100mm of rain centred over South Australia and most of Victoria. The Western Australian south-eastern wheatbelt and south coast received the best of it in the west, while the western Eyre Peninsula and south-east South Australia were best served in the south.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar started the week under pressure just holding above 70 US cents following a tumultuous weekend of Middle East developments that have left the US and Iran peace deal in doubt. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday in response to continued strikes by Israel on Lebanon.
Livestock
Another big week in livestock markets with the official triggering of the China safeguard and the first of the new season sucker lambs hitting the market. Both the beef and sheepmeat markets are about to see significant changes in dynamics – beef on the demand side and sheepmeat on the supply side. From a seasonal conditions perspective speaking with agents across Australia there are few weak patches. Livestock are packing the weight on in mild conditions.
There are plenty of cattle in Queensland, with the market back 10 to 20 cents per kilogram last week. If it drops another 20 to 30 cents per kilogram this week it may start to open the supply floodgates in the next month, assuming no rain issues.
On lamb, people budgeting 11 to 12 dollars per kilogram this spring. Once the new season flush comes coupled with reduced processor capacity, prices will come under pressure. There won’t be much mutton killed, but at current prices they are having trouble selling current stocks of mutton – even though their kill is down 60 to 70 per cent (pc).
The recent price run is solely local supply related and once the supply situation becomes more comfortable as the north starts running harder and spring supplies start to appear in the south, prices will adjust lower. It appears the catalyst for beef will be when China announces Brazil is at 80 pc quota utilisation. For sheepmeat it will be when new season lamb supplies start to flow (a month earlier and much heavier than the last few springs).
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
Markets for grain have been remarkably flat over the past week, despite geopolitical turmoil. Prices are being weighed down by the start of harvesting of good crops in Europe and MENA (double last year’s drought affected production). There were signs that demand was starting to pick up with costs easing with the availability of northern hemisphere new crop and the promise of lower freight rates given the opening back up of the Strait.
Locally, a consolidating start to the season in parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. This has encouraged some growers to sell wheat into a market which has softened further in the past week by $2 to 5/tonne. Across all of eastern Australia, the 30 June end to free warehousing for grain delivered in the 2025/26 harvest is also encouraging some growers to let go of volume. Barley now under $390/tonne. Downs and wheat around $380 per tonne. Sorghum $360 per tonne and in Melbourne, wheat $350 per tonne and barley $335 per tonne.
Liquidity in the north’s new-crop market is starting to pick up, but is mostly confined to trade rather than grower business, while in the south, growers are top-dressing where it is not too wet to sow.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
The Australian wool market pushed higher again this week, with no sales in Fremantle and only Sydney and Melbourne in operation. The reduced roster resulted in the smallest weekly offering of the 2025/26 season, with support evident across both selling centres. The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) finished 10 cents higher at 1,989 Australian cents per kilogram, within touching distance of the all-time high recorded in August 2018.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Cotton
Cotton is holding at $580 to 590/bale Moree and Dalby with local basis strengthening with US old crop supply dwindling and with Brazil’s picking season only just beginning and available supplies not likely to be ready until August.
Sugar
India is expected to have little surplus for export for at least three more seasons as El Nino weather conditions threaten cane production and rising ethanol demand squeezes supply. Despite this, sugar futures remained under pressure with global sugar supplies in a surplus, while consumer tastes have been moving more toward sugar substitutes in food. Sugar has been more closely tied to oil price movements due to the tie in with ethanol.
Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.
Spotlight on: lamb production
With the strength of the season being enjoyed across large lamb producing areas in southern Australia, despite lower flock numbers, expect to see supply start to recover seasonally about a month earlier than normal. Lamb scanning rates and marking rates are amongst the highest ever with agents reporting they have never seen so many healthy, early lambs at this time of year.
Graph showing the 2025 and 2026 kill numbers of mutton and lamb compared against a five-year average. Source: MLA.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.
