Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 12 to 19 July 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
At a glance:
- Rain in Western Australian central wheatbelt and in the south, dry elsewhere
- Livestock prices steady
- Grain prices firm on concerns over Black Sea exports
- Wool eases, supported by tight supply.
Weather
There was some handy general rainfall of 15 to 25mm for the northern and central Western Australian wheatbelt and most of Victoria and Tasmania, with more in isolated areas. The 8-day forecast is mostly dry except for Tasmania where west and central Tasmania should receive another soaking.
It was the coldest week of the year with widespread light frosts over several days for parts of inland Australia.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar remains under 70USc as risk aversion from uncertainty around the Middle Eastern conflict continues to support the US dollar as a safe haven currency.
Livestock
Cattle saleyard values are holding, as offerings out of Queensland steadily increase. Beef prices for international manufacturing steadied this week. However, US boxed beef prices have begun to ease seasonally as the US enters a period of lower beef demand. The US choice cut-out has eased from around $390 to $366/cwt, over the past fortnight, placing further pressure on US beef processing margins.
Slaughter sheep and lamb prices eased slightly this week, however, restocker lamb values firmed. Supplies should soon start rising seasonally, particularly light/store as new season lambs, attracted by the high prices are offered to the market.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
International grain prices firmed around 10 per cent (pc) as attacks on grain logistics infrastructure across the Black Sea escalate and threaten new crop export supplies. Local prices have firmed $10 to $20/tonne on strengthening export prospects as Asian buyers are expected to turn attention toward Australian grain. The local trade is short into end users, and as a result of some crops starting to look for a drink and the forecast being dry. Over the next week we should start to see some increased urgency to cover shorts as price volatility looks to be weighted to the upside.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
The Australian wool market edged lower by 8c/kg to 1,901Ac/kg. With only Sydney and Melbourne operating, the national offering fell by 7,730 bales to 21,230 bales, helping limit the overall decline.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Cotton
US cotton futures fell this week as profit-taking and weak US export sales weighed on prices. Cotton mills seem reluctant to chase prices above 80USc/lb. Local prices eased back to $590 to $600/bale Moree/Dalby ex Gin, while cottonseed remained steady at $490/tonne.
Sugar
Sugar prices firmed during the week as higher crude oil prices spurred short covering in sugar futures. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño could disrupt global sugar supply are providing support for prices. The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions. Last week, India’s weather office lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June to September monsoon season to 90 pc of the long-term average, down from a forecast of 92 pc issued in April. Current projections are that global sugar production could fall by 1.15 per cent to 180mmt in 2026/27 and that there will be a global sugar deficit of 262,000 tonnes, in contrast to a surplus of 2.2mmt in the 2025/26 season.
Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.
Spotlight on: Global grain market
The global grain market has been transitioning to a tighter supply environment over the past few months with fewer plantings and as yields revert to trend after several years of above trend yields (due in part to higher input costs). The tightening in supply has been accentuated by significant crop failures in the US (winter wheat) and western Europe (successive heatwaves have affected spring crop conditions). This and an uptick in demand for grain from the biofuel sector due to higher crude oil prices reinforcing biofuel mandates and increasing the competitiveness of biofuels has caused a significant about turn in global grain stock trends.
In wheat, most of the production losses have been in major exporting countries. Higher production across the Black Sea region was expected to fill the void, however, persistent attacks on grain logistics infrastructure and fuel supply across the region is casting doubt on the ability of Black Sea exporters to get new crop supply to market cheaply. Asian importers will be eyeing large old crop stocks in Australia as an alternative to Black Sea grain. Concerns about Black Sea export flows pushed grain prices to record levels after the Russia/Ukraine war commenced in 2022.
This chart shows global wheat export projections for 2026/27. Source: USDA.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.
