Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 13 to 19 October 2025. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
Weather
The past week saw patchy storm rainfall of 25 to 50mm through parts of northern Australia and down through central and south-east Queensland. NSW and Victoria’s falls were lower 10 to 15mm and patchier. The forecast for the next week has rain of 15 to 50mm for most of SA, Victoria and southern NSW with lighter falls elsewhere in NSW and Queensland.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian$ was under pressure last week at 64.8USc from a shock local jobs number that saw unemployment reach a 4 year high of 4.5per cent (4.3 pc was expected). An uptick up in the participation rate from 66.8pc to 67pc (not so bad) drove the increase that was largely concentrated in the youth demographic, with youth unemployment rising to 10.5pc from 9.8pc last month. This has put a pre-Christmas interest rate back on the table with risks shifting for the RBA from managing inflation to maintaining employment.
Livestock
Cattle markets had a very similar look about them to much of the last month. Prices eased 2 to 5pc with most of the losses in feeder and restocker cattle categories and slaughter cattle categories holding up the best. Increased supplies in both the north and south were the main drivers, with graziers offloading in lieu of a hot summer and with pasture conditions tightening.
US beef and cattle futures fell on Friday, after Trump said he was going to work on getting beef prices down. His solution will probably be to increase quotas for South America beef exporters (Argentina) and relax tariffs (he placed a 50 additional tariff on their biggest beef import source Brazil, in August lifting its effective tariff rate to 76.3pc).
Sheep and lambs markets followed suit under the same influences as the local cattle market, but were harder hit, down 5 to 7pc as supply is rising off a lower base and prices are correcting from historic highs.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
Global grain markets are continuing to battle against record wheat and corn crops. Demand is reasonable and prices have stabilised at five-year lows on concerns that US corn yields may not live up to lofty pre-harvest expectations. Slow grower selling by Russia and US farmers has helped, with a reluctance to sell at returns below the cost of production.
Senior Canadian and Chinese officials discussed bilateral trade disputes involving canola and electric vehicles on Friday but gave no indication of any immediate breakthrough. Canadian canola futures finished lower on Friday but eked a modest gain for the week, indicating not much may happen quickly on the trade front with China.
Nothing much has changed from a global fundamental picture so local markets will look to any changes in local sentiment or the local supply and demand. The larger WA crop will compensate for losses across the south-east, but the southern port zone balance sheet has tightened. This has led to some old crop premiums as end users seek to take cover on ASW in delivered feed markets pushing it to $375/t Melb/Geel up $20/t the past fortnight. Southern markets will remain on the defensive until the trade can assess to the impact of this week’s forecast showers. The rain will be too late for some, making it tricky to assess the impact.
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) said WA will produce nearly 1mt more wheat this season (12.8mt Oct est. vs 11.8mt Sep est. vs 12.5mt last year) than was expected a month. It also raised its production forecasts for canola by 490,000t (3.8mt Oct est. vs 3.2 Sep est. vs 2.9 last year) and for barley by 200,000t (7.3mt Oct est. vs 5.9mt Sep est. vs 7.1mt last year). The state is on track to come close to or possibly exceed the 2022 season's record production. Larger plantings due to a shift away from livestock has helped propel WA grain production to another level.
For more information, refer to the latest Elders Insights October Cropping Update.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
The wool market has eased on a step up in offerings to over 40,000 bales the past few weeks with the Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) closing down 61 cents to 1,456Ac/ kg. The EMI, however, still sits 28pc higher than the same week last season, reflecting the broader upward trend in value and overall buyer demand despite recent corrections. A 5.3pc increase in the passed-in rate to 24.6pc, highlights grower resistance to lower prices, with nearly a quarter of wool offered withdrawn from sale as sellers hold firm against softer buyer demand.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Sugar
Sugar futures copped a decent hit through the past week, easing to 15.5USc/lb on rising sugar production in Brazil's key centre-south region - up 11pc in the second half of September compared to the year-earlier period. The strong monsoon season (best in 5years) in India has also raised the prospects of increased Indian sugar production (+19pc) and exports.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.