Weather
10 to 50mm of rain clipped parts of south-east South Australia and moved through south-west Victoria and the Wimmera and central Victoria, and most of New South Wales (NSW) except for the Riverina. Crucially it also missed the Victorian Mallee and north-eastern Victoria, where croppers are waiting desperately for an autumn break.
Forecasts for the week ahead is for rain of 10 to 25mm that may push into the central tablelands of NSW where rain is much needed. Otherwise it looks like another dry week. Most croppers are in the middle of planting, some into ideal conditions and some not, while some are still waiting for a decent rainfall. Yield prospects in some areas start to decline unless crops are in and germinated by mid-May as growth becomes stunted by cold weather.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar is creeping back up towards 64USc on signs of an easing in US-China trade tensions. This is supportive of currencies such as the $A which is heavily reliant on trade with China.
Livestock
Last week’s markets were heavily influenced by public holidays, smaller yardings and the short processing week. Next week should give us a better indication of where things are heading, although Queensland has another public holiday on Monday week. We are one-third the way through the year, and we’ve hardly had a ‘normal’ week.
Trade uncertainty continues to limit out-front sales of Australian beef into the US as the US lean beef complex adjusts to the changing trade environment. US domestic lean beef prices have been falling as the griding meat market absorbs product that would previously have been exported to China. While the US market is still sorting itself out, Australian exporters are reporting a pick-up in interest from China. This should see global markets adjust and may even push Australian beef export returns higher than before.
Huge volitility in sheep markets
The sheepmeat market has also been affected by the string of public holidays, but probably worse. Much lower yardings met strong interest and volatile trading as processors begin to worry about filling slaughter schedules as we head into the cooler months. A bit of rainfall for across south-west and central Victoria up into most of NSW won’t make it any easier for processors to find supplies next week.
Huge fluctuations in saleyard numbers, mixed quality and erratic processing demand have led to enormous fluctuations in sheep prices at saleyards over the past month. As processors get back to full working weeks, demand should stabilise, and supplies tighten with many southern producers having to bite the bullet and offload non-core breeding stock prior to Easter. The chart below shows the national mutton saleyard indicator price in cents per kilogram (c/kg) carcase weight (cw). Source: NLRS and MLA.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
Grain markets have been quiet as with the impact of a weaker $US being offset by improving growing season conditions in the northern hemisphere. Drier weather across South America will allow Argentina and Brazil to wrap up a bumper soybean crop.
Global wheat supply and demand continue to look tight into 2025/26, not that you would know by looking at price trends. 2024-25 global wheat stocks-to-use (SU) among major exporting countries were estimated at the start of the year at a 17-year low of 14.56 per cent (pc) but have been raised to 15.89pc, largely due to weak Chinese wheat imports. But there is still plenty of uncertainty around global supply. Last week, the USDA’s Kyiv attaché last week pegged the 2025-26 Ukrainian wheat harvest at 17mt, a 13-year low and down 23pc on the year. Soils were extremely dry during the planting period and profitability is poor, cutting sown area. Russian agencies currently predict the 2025-26 harvest between 80-82mt, same as 2024/25. The US is looking at a slightly smaller plant, Canadian farmers plan to lift production after last year’s dry weather affected harvest, EU production is expected to bounce back from multi-decade lows, Argentina may have a bigger crop due to changes in export tax regime. Around 40pc of the Australian crop is in the balance and it is hard seeing it being any bigger than last year at this stage, with limited subsoil moisture for significant wheat production areas south of Parkes and Molong (NSW) all the way through the Riverina, southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia.
Local delivered feed barley grain markets have firmed $5/t during the week to $340/t Downs, $315/t Liverpool Plains, $365/t Melb/Geelong, $355/t Murray Bridge. In contrast, the feed barley market in WA has backed off around $20/t from its high, mostly $A related. WA barley is more sensitive to $A as it’s competing in export markets. Brokers are saying the phones have been ringing from traders down south chasing feed barley for livestock feeding. This is due to the forecast rain system for southern regions over Easter failed to materialise with hay and lucerne prices also on the rise as producers rush to secure livestock feed given that the season probably won’t recover from here unless weather remains unusually mild.
There is some off spec sorghum showing up in late sorghum crops currently being harvested along the NSW/Queensland border region some SOR2 (discolouring and a percent shot) and some SORX that has >25pc shot. SOR2 cops a $20/t discount (will probably be blended with SOR1) and SORX $40/t (meaning it’s a stockfeed). Sorghum harvest is mostly complete around border regions and the Liverpool Plains, with prices holding up well at around milling wheat values; $370 track Newcastle and $390-400/t delivered by truck Newcastle, $370/t Downs packer and $385-390/t Del Brisbane. CQ sorghum harvest has just started with loads being executed at $355/t track Gladstone and $380/t delivered truck Gladstone.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
The Australian wool market is in Easter recess allowing the market to ascertain the impact of recent uncertainty in the global macro-economic environment.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Sugar
Sugar prices have recently fallen to around 18USc/lb (18.18USc/lb) due to concerns about trade uncertainties, while the downside of prices is limited by the drought's impacts on Brazil's sugarcane yields. Fears that a prolonged US/China trade war will hinder global economic growth and along with higher tariffs, might reduce consumer demand.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.