Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 19 to 25 October 2026. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
At a glance:
- Widespread rain disrupts northern harvest
- Australian dollar strengthens as possibility of a Melbourne Cup Day rate hike firms
- Beef export markets on the improve
- Grains ease on talk of Black Sea de-escalation.
Weather
As forecast, there was widespread rain of 25 to 100mm through much of the east coast. The heavier falls were in Queensland and northern NSW. Rainfall was more isolated through the Northern Territory and western Queensland and other parts of the east coast. The forecast is suggesting something similar again for this week, with the heavier falls again mostly concentrated in northern NSW and Queensland.
Get weather forecasts for your location on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar was boosted back over 70USc on comments by the RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser that were regarded as hawkish and led to markets increasing the probability of a Melbourne Cup Day (3 November) rate hike from 24 per cent to 56 per cent. The number had dipped back to 15 per cent after this month’s poor employment data which led to some recent weakness in the Australian dollar.
Livestock
Cattle markets responded to the rain with restocker and feeder markets leading the way up 10 to 20c/kg liveweight. Queensland graziers are now more likely to hold cattle till the New Year. The rain across northeast NSW, the Darling Downs and through southern Queensland will likely prevent another round of forced turnoff. The tone in international beef markets was better this week with Chinese and Korean buying ahead of the 1 January quota reset increasing competition and forcing a 6USc/lb lift in US offers for lean imported manufacturing beef.
Sheepmeat prices were firm to moderately higher as processors competed to fill slaughter schedules amid ongoing tight supply. Read more in our latest Sheep Market Update.
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Grain
International grain markets fell again this week on the whiff of Black Sea de-escalation. US wheat futures have lost 20 per cent since the start of September, driven mainly by commodity fund selling. European and cash markets have held up much better. There has been some improvement in global supplies with US corn and soybean harvest underway, a gradual increase in Russian wheat exports (out of Baltic ports) and increased southern hemisphere winter crop estimates. Importers continue to buy hand to mouth in the hope that a resolution can be found to allow the flow of cheap grain through Black Sea ports. Peace talks have been scheduled for mid-November. If Russian and Ukrainian exports continue run at only 40 to 50 per cent of normal, world exportable supply could become exceptionally tight in coming months, increasing the prospects of a rebound in global prices.
Locally, the rain saw a strengthening in prompt values across the northern zone and some weakness across the south, but liquidity is low as markets await the outcome of the unfolding weather event. Rain in the south will likely add to yields in some inner cropping areas but cause issues for those baling hay. There are reports already of some sprouting of grain in southern Queensland and northern NSW.
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Wool
The Australian wool market continued to ease this week by 18c/kg to 1785c/kg despite a substantially smaller national offering of 26,000 bales. Buyer selectivity and increasing grower seller resistance were the key factors shaping the market. A larger offering of over 30,000 bales is rostered for this week and will provide another test of market conviction.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Cotton
Global cotton futures eased into the weekend as favourable US harvest weather pressured prices. Prices registered a weekly gain with solid export buying evident as prices move back towards 80USc/lb with some concerns also emerging over Indian production. Local prices are grinding higher to $614/bale and $609/bale Dalby/Moree respectively, with cottonseed holding at $510/tonne.
Sugar
Sugar held above 20USc/lb with strong buying evident on the recent dip in prices. India has extended the deadline for allowing duty-free imports of 1 million metric tons of raw sugar to December 31 from October 31. Sugar prices in India are soaring as it experiences lower-than-usual monsoon rains owing to the El Nino weather pattern.
Learn about the many ways Elders helps cotton growers.
Spotlight on: Australian cattle industry
Sustained higher diesel prices at around current levels have the potential to cause wide ranging changes and alter the rules of engagement in agricultural markets. One of the major structural issues in our cattle industry is that currently Victoria has 11 per cent of the herd but is 18 per cent of the kill. This year southern processors have pulled cattle from the north for most of the year. The last freight bill I heard was $300/head on cows. Will we start to see a wider spread between northern and southern cattle prices? And will southern processors start offering greater incentives to accelerate a rebuild of the southern herd?
While the margin fluctuates from week to week depending on supply relativities, the average difference between Queensland and Victorian cow prices was 30c/kg in the months leading up to the 28 February strikes on Iran and 50c/kg liveweight since.
This chart shows chick pea prices at export ports in New South Wales and Queensland. Source: CGX.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.
