Welcome to the Elders Insights' Weekly Market Summary for the week 18 to 24 August 2025. We recap what’s happened on the Australian commodity markets over the past week and influencing factors.
Weather
A series of weather fronts sweeping through Western Australia (WA) have delivered widespread rain of 25 to 50mm across the WA cropping belt. It is forecast to provide crop saving rain for South Australia, Victoria and the NSW Riverina in the next few days. Another weather system brought 25 to 50mm for parts of central and northern NSW and southern Queensland.
Longer-term forecasts are suggesting favourable ocean temperature developments (a strengthening IOD) for a wet spring for southern Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) refers to an index that measures the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Indian Ocean. It can strongly influence rainfall and temperature patterns across Australia, particularly during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter and spring.
The IOD index needs to drop below -0.4 and remain there for several weeks to be classified as a negative IOD event. The latest weekly IOD value was -0.91 on August 17, marking the fourth consecutive week below the negative IOD threshold. If the index drops below -0.94 in the coming weeks it will become the strongest negative IOD value we have seen since October 2010, which was Australia's second wettest October on record.
Get weather forecasts for your region on Elders Weather.
Australian Dollar
The Australian $ is back up to just under 65USc on $US weakness after comments from the US Fed Reserve Chairman at Jackson Hole, were viewed as increasing the probability of US rate cuts.
Livestock
Cattle values consolidated at recent highs as processors raise concerns that margins are being squeezed by the recent lift in rates. The good news is that US domestic beef prices continue to rise and exporters are currently in negotiations for new contracts on the basis of Brazilian lean beef being excluded from the US market. The outcome of these negotiations could set the scene for further rises in export beef values which would help restore processing margins and create room for a further lift in local cattle values. Certainly, the US market needs our beef with a sharp fall in US slaughter and production pushing US domestic beef values higher. The US choice cut-out (wholesale value of US feedlot cattle) is currently $406/cwt vs $315/cwt last year (+29 pc).
For more insights, refer to our latest cattle market update.
Spotlight on: US cattle production
US cattle slaughter and production has fallen since the start of this year with the pace of decline accelerating in the past six weeks. This has led to a sharp rise in beef values amid strong US demand for beef. In the latest Elders Insights August 2025 Cattle Update we look at the implications for local prices as we head towards Spring and what some of our agents are saying.
This chart shows US weekly cattle slaughter 2024 vs 2025. Source: USDA
Sheepmeat markets: Sheepmeat values have similarly stabilised at recent high’s at $11.50/kg cw for heavy lambs, $11/kg cw for trade and $9.50-10/kg cw light and restocker lambs. New season lamb supply is starting to lift which may help to cap values with some processors still winding back kill numbers until supply improves and values cool a little.
View livestock for sale and our sales calendar listings.
Grain
Really nothing to pin our hats on from an international perspective, except perhaps strong early season interest in US corn and wheat and talk of Chinese interest in US beans. Global crops seem to be getting larger with the US Pro Farmer crop tour all but confirming a record US corn crop.
Local markets are unchanged with thoughts that those with grain stocks should be selling into any rallies caused by supply disruptions from the flooding that is occurring through parts of northern NSW. Probably the event of most significance for local grain values is the possibility of crop saving/making rain for the South Australia, Victoria and the NSW Riverina. While the rain won’t be enough to get crops home it may buy another 2 to 3 weeks and allow crops to bulk up a bit before it gets hot which has implications for southern feed markets. Wheat is $330/t Downs and $360-365/t into southern feed markets (Melbourne/Murray Bridge), barley at a $15-20/t discount.
Trade your grain at your price on the secure GCX platform.
Wool
Australian wool auctions opened this week following the annual three-week winter recess. A largish offering of over 40,000 bales sold to strong purchasing interest from exporters. Both Chinese and Indian orders were prominent. The strongest prices were in WA, pushing the indicator up 8Ac/kg to 1247Ac/kg.
Learn the many ways we support wool growers.
Sugar
Sugar prices have stabilised and are expected to rise another 5per cent into year’s end to above 17USc/lb due to lower than previously expected supply in top producer Brazil.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.