The latest insights and information on the Australian sheep market as of September 2025
Key points
- Sharply tighter supply since mid-year has supported a lift in values across the sheepmeat complex as processors compete for stock to maintain kills
- Lower new season lamb supplies are around 6-8 weeks behind normal due to mixed seasonal conditions across major lamb producing areas
- Export demand is holding up relatively well with rises in export returns and a pivot towards higher value export markets
- Weak processing margins will cap sheep and lamb values moving forward while supply should start to increase as we move through spring
- Higher feeding margins due to falling grain prices are supporting increased demand for light and store lambs
- Weak mutton supplies are maintaining sheep prices at historically high levels, while early ewe sales suggest a move towards merino ewes bred for dual purpose.
Sheepmeat kills gradually rise as spring new season lamb supply improves
Two years of heavy flock liquidation combined with tough seasonal conditions across major lamb producing areas in southern Australia have contributed to a marked shortage of lambs that looks set to extend well into the back end of the year.
Fewer ewe joinings, lower lambing and poor marking percentages (particularly from the later autumn drop) combined with limited available pasture, has meant that a smaller lamb cohort has been slower to market and are at lighter weights than normal. The season is running around 6 to 8 weeks behind normal which has maintained sheepmeat values at elevated levels through early spring.
Sheepmeat processing levels that show a sharp drop off since June explain the reason for the sudden rise in values across the sheepmeat complex. Although the sheepmeat slaughter is down only 4 per cent for the year, it has fallen 13 percent since the start of June.
Chart shows combined lamb and mutton kill 24/25 vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA
Our agents report that lambs are now doing well and putting on weight which will support a rise in supply into year’s end. While some recovery in supply is anticipated through spring, volumes will remain restricted compared to recent years.
Export volumes remain solid, and export returns have improved as exporters pivot to higher value lamb markets, supporting heavy lamb values.
Domestic lamb values have improved but retailers are reporting some resistance to higher prices and have begun to reduce orders. Weaker demand and a lift in supply as we move through spring should act to lower values from current levels.
Significantly lower grain values and firm slaughter lamb values have improved lamb feeding margins increasing demand for light and store lambs from lamb feedlots.
Western Australian (WA) lamb prices have been lagging the eastern states for much of the year. They have started to move on par with east coast slaughter values, as available numbers tighten and west coast processors compete more aggressively to keep WA lambs at home. Over the past couple of years WA has been an important source of slaughter stock for eastern states processors. The phasing out of the live export trade and poor seasonal conditions has seen 880,000 sheep and lambs sent interstate from WA as turnoff exceeded WA processing capacity. Projections are that total WA slaughter will fall this year from 5.2 million head to around 4.6 million head, owing to the fall in flock numbers with the potential to fall further if substantive flock rebuilding occurs.
Export pivot to higher value markets
Export markets for lamb appear to be holding up well, except for Iran, where exports have fallen from 19,000 tonnes to around 5,000 tonnes for the year to August. Overall total Australian lamb exports are back just 8,000 tonnes for the year to August to 242,000 tonnes. The higher value markets through north America, Asia and Europe (mainly UK) taking an increased proportion of export volumes, suggesting higher per tonne lamb export returns in 2025 relative to recent years.
Overall exports as a proportion of total sheepmeat production have increased from 63pc to 65pc as higher export returns make exporting more profitable than supplying the domestic trade.
In the US, boneless leg prices have increased around 20pc since the same time last year, while export volumes have been maintained, indicating some improvement in demand.
Solid export demand is supporting the heavy lamb export market despite tight processing margins.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for heavy lambs this year vs 23/24 and 7=year average. Source: MLA
Domestic demand will be affected by higher prices
Domestic retail lamb leg values have risen from $9 to 12/kg last year to $15 to 17/kg, a 40 percent increase. Higher domestic lamb values are meeting some consumer resistance, with one processor reporting that a major discount retailer has significantly reduced its orders.
Other independent retailers are reporting that they are struggling to sell lamb in the same quantities at the higher prices.
A weakening in domestic consumption combined with rising spring supplies should help bring back lamb prices as we move through spring.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for trade lambs this year vs 23/24 and 7year average. Source: MLA.
Light weight lamb values hold up well
Despite weaker export volumes going into markets that traditionally demand light weight lambs (export volumes top Iran have fallen from 19,000 tonnes to around 5,000 tonnes for the year to August), prices for light lambs have held up well.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for light lambs this year vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA.
We suspect that domestic wholesalers have been active in this category of lambs given the scarcity of heavier weight lambs and their higher cost.
Restocker activity picks up as feeding margins strengthen
With sheepmeat values expected to hold and with grain prices falling, lamb feeding margins look to be maintained through the end of the year. Barley prices have fallen by around 10 per cent in the past quarter to below $280/t ex farm and look set to fall further into harvest. Given bulging global feed grain stocks, there is the possibility prices will fall to around $250/t ex farm by harvest, representing the cheapest local grain values since the 21/22 harvest.
Improving margins will underpin increased levels of local lamb feeding and support the market for light and store lambs. Feeders are currently contracting store lambs at $5 to 6/kg liveweight delivered SA/Victorian feedlots. Restocker lamb values have continued to improve the past couple of months, even with finished lamb values plateauing.
Currently west coast processors are only offering forward contracts a month out, which is making it difficult for WA feeders to contract store lambs. Around 150,000 WA store lambs have already been contracted by eastern states lotfeeders at $4.50 to 4.70/kg lw for October/November delivery.
Given the relative attractiveness of current store lamb values and the work and cost of finishing lambs to slaughter weights, a larger than normal proportion of producers may opt to offload lambs as stores to generate cash flow, rather than take a punt on the season.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for restocker lambs this year vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA.
Mutton supplies remain tight, mixed results from first ewe sales
Mutton values have steadied over the past month as processing margins deteriorated. Mutton exports have contracted by 12,000 tonnes to 140,000 tonnes with declines being evenly spread across major export markets as higher prices clip export volumes. Lower slaughter sheep supplies should continue as graziers begin to retain ewes to rebuild flocks. Heavy flock liquidation the past two- years means that the current flock is young and productive.
The first of the off-shear’s ewe sales have provided a preview of what to expect in the upcoming spring ewe sale season. Modern merino ewes or dual-purpose ewes, representing the top drafts at these sales, sold well to repeat customers for $400/head. There was however, a sharp drop off to secondary drafts that featured traditional heavy wool cutting merino’s that were bred mainly for wool production and sold into the mid $200’s/head and not much above slaughter value.
The modern merino has a lot more emphasis on body structure, eye muscle size and growth rates with many preferring these ewes for their first cross operation, as you can run merino ewes at a higher stocking rate with a lot less input.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for mutton this year vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA.
From the rails
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
“Yardings are gradually rising as is quality and weight as warmer weather and spring pasture growth brings lambs to hand. New season lambs are currently making up around 30pc of yardings. Still, plenty of grain assisted good quality heavy weight old season lambs coming to market and plenty of interest from restockers."
"Competition at saleyards has been erratic with domestic processors in and out of the market but pricing has been stable at between $11 to 13/kg dw across the offering. The season remains in the balance across the south with the south-west and Riverina still looking for rain to finish crops off and to keep momentum for pasture growth. Supplies look constrained well into next year with large lamb producing areas just not having the lambs they normally would and being later and lighter than normal." - Ben Emms, Livestock Manager, Emms Mooney.
| NSW sheepmeat saleyard indicatorsc/kg dw | ||||
| 16 Sept 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1166 | 1178 (-12) | 1195 (+39) | 810 (+356) |
| Trade | 1173 | 1171 (+2) | 1182 (+9) | 790 (+383) |
| Light | 1050 | 1050 (n/c) | 1031 (+19) | 666 (+384) |
| Restocker | 1196 | 1155 (+41) | 1052 (+44) | 728 (+468) |
| Merino | 1097 | 1042 (+55) | 1045 (+52) | 695 (+402) |
| Mutton | 810 | 755 (+55) | 766 (+44) | 293 (+517) |
Source: MLA
“There has been a bit of rain in the north of my patch in the Riverina and Northern Riverina. 15 to 40mm, depending on where you are. It petered out in the south. So, the further south, the less they got.”
“The grass is starting to grow, and anyone that looks after the country or treats it well has got feed in front of them. It's probably only just starting to whet the appetite of people looking to restock and start thinking about how there are going to plan for that.”
“We are right in the middle of ram sales with a lot of the Riverina merino sales happening this week and next week. It's quite interesting how they're going. Those more modern types and the planner more carcass type sheep are selling well and having good clearances and your traditional bale fillers are struggling to keep up.
“At Hillston last week, young ewes topped out at $400/head but then there was a significant gap to the next level in the mid $200’s/head. So that'll set a little bit of a scene for the Hay sale at the end of this week.
“There are 33,000 sheep at Hay and we probably thought the sale was going to fly, but the Hillston result has cast a bit of doubt. I think the top will sell well and they'll probably have a four in front of them, but the whole job maybe won't have as much bounce as what we probably saw three weeks ago.” - Nick Gray, State Livestock Manager Victoria/Riverina.
| Victorian sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 16 Sept 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1211 | 1122 (+89) | 1176 (+35) | 791 (+420) |
| Trade | 1168 | 1117 (+51) | 1123 (+45) | 799 (+369) |
| Light | 1002 | 957 (+45) | 926 (+76) | 552 (+450) |
| Restocker | 1077 | 951 (+126) | 814 (+263) | 628 (+449) |
| Merino | 1000 | 935 (+65) | 866 (+134) | 459 (+541) |
| Mutton | 733 | 681 (+52) | 739 (-6) | 274 (+459) |
Source: MLA
“Things are going well. Crops are growing well, pasture is a little bit slower, but the crops have all had a nice feed of urea and all the goodies and are starting to jump away.”
“Hopefully rain to follow another warm day later in the week and rain behind that. We won't want too many warm days as it will slow all the confidence down well and truly as crops are late and still lacking a bit of moisture to carry them through a hot spring.
“On the sheep front, the processors tell us they've got plenty and then they go and revise grids, which they did last week putting your better sheep are $7.40 to 7.80/kg dw.”
“Lambs are still doing particularly well, particularly the grazier end. We had lambs go last week at $12.40/kg dw to the supermarket trade and lambs in the yard are still making $12/kg dw which is exciting.
“There is $6/kg lw on little lambs to go back to the paddock. These lambs are growing very quickly, we had some lambs weighed last week and they are doing 400 to 600 grams a day on well managed pasture through the mid part of the southeast, so they are doing well with a bit of sunshine on their back.
“In the lower part of the south-east, grass is starting to grow and with some warmer weather, lambs in this area will soon start jumping away very quickly as well.
“The graziers are a bit motivated. I see young merino ewes, were sold at $4/kg lw in a privately advertised sale but some ewes at auction last week in the Mallee sold for up to $388/head. There is a bit of strength in the off-shears side of it for right article.
“A few big sales coming up at Lameroo and Keith and there's talk that young ewe prices will have a 4 in the front of them. It'll be interesting to see where things are at by the time we get to November and the blue ribbon first cross ewe sales down here at Naracoorte.There is a bit of speculation that we'll have a 5 in front of first cross ewe prices for the very best of them. But we need a lot more rainfall and a bigger, better season before we're over the line.” - Laryn Gogel, Livestock Sales Manager South Australia.
| SA sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 16 Sept 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1129 | 1111 (+18) | 1178 (-49) | 793 (+336) |
| Trade | 1148 | 1114 (+34) | 1167 (-19) | 720 (+428) |
| Light | 1015 | 1018 (+3) | 947 (+68) | 527 (+488) |
| Restocker | 1006 | 912 (+94) | 898 (+108) | 477 (+529) |
| Merino | 1000 | 935 (+65) | 866 (+134) | 459 (+541) |
| Mutton | 630 | 657 (-27) | 704 (-74) | 204 (+426) |
Source: MLA
“Everyone's talking sheep again, which is good, especially the farm advisors given where the grain prices are heading which is talking the sheep job up. Steady going from here for the next couple of weeks and then fire up again when the merino lambs come onto the market in November/December. Some interesting some young ewes available at some reasonable prices for WA at $250 to 260/head with most being snapped up by the locals. The stud sales have been very strong, especially on the British breeds.”
“Projections are that total WA sheep and lamb slaughter will fall this year from 5.2 million head to around 4.6 million head owing to the fall in flock numbers, with the potential to fall further if substantive flock rebuilding occurs.”
“Currently west coast processors are only offering forward contracts a month out which is making it difficult for WA feeders to contract store lambs. Around 150,000 WA store lambs have already been contracted by eastern states lotfeeders at $4.50 to 4.70/kg lw for October/November delivery.”- Wayne Peake, Livestock Manager, Western Australia.
| WA sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 16 Sept 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1010 | 1188 (-178) | 1046 (-36) | 494 (+516) |
| Trade | 1047 | 1158 (-11) | 975 (+172) | 665 (+482) |
| Light | 962 | 928 (+34) | 968 (-6) | 533 (+429) |
| Restocker | 987 | 1081 (-97) | 953 (-34) | 407 (+580) |
| Merino | 917 | 957 (-40) | 1012 (-95) | 474 (+443) |
| Mutton | 644 | 628 (-16) | 626 (+18) | 290 (+354) |
Source: MLA
“Tassie had a bit of rain go through the state last week, good falls of 20 to 40mm through the north. As I’ve alluded to over the last few weeks, the southern part of the state has been struggling for moisture. They received 10 to 20mm, which is handy. But with temperatures in Hobart today of around 23 and a bit of breeze about, it won't last long. So, they're still in desperate need in the southern half of the state.”
“Spring growth has started and that’s being reflected in the marketplace.
“Not many lambs around. We've only had one group of sucker lambs come through our physical market here a fortnight ago and haven't seen any since. A few may start to turn up at the over the hooks price of $11/kg cw.
“The physical market improved another $20 to 40/head on the heavy types $12.30 to 12.40/kg dw, trade types $12-13/kg dw and lighter lambs $10 to 12.50/kg dw.
“On mutton, the market is kicking on quite nicely. The heavy mutton $6.50 to $7.80/kg dw, medium weight $7.50 to 8/kg dw and the lighter end $5.90 to $7.40/kg dw. So going on quite nicely, on limited numbers, but it's all looking positive over here at the minute bar the south which is lacking moisture.” - Gavin Coombe, Livestock Manager, Tasmania.
| TAS sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 16 Sept 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Trade | 1144 | 1228 (-84) | 1195 (-51) | 716 (+428) |
| Light | 911 | 1173 (-262) | 1045 (-134) | 577 (+334) |
| Restocker | 774 | 1003 (-229) | 986 (+212) | 450 (+324) |
| Mutton | 842 | 715 (-127) | 772 (-70) | 279 (+563) |
Source: MLA
| Queensland sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 16 Sept 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1030 | 978 (+52) | 1019 (+11) | 681 (+349) |
| Trade | 1087 | 1011 (+76) | 1006 (+81) | 810 (+277) |
| Light | 975 | 1026 (-51) | 1005 (-30) | 633 (+342) |
| Restocker | 870 | 948 (-308) | 908 (-268) | 648 (-8) |
| Merino | 895 | 661 (+234) | 948 (-53) | 684 (+211) |
| Mutton | 682 | 619 (+63) | 793 (-111) | 332 (+350) |
Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.
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The information contained in this article is given for general information purposes only, current at the time of first publication, and does not constitute professional advice. The article has been independently created by a human author using some degree of creativity through consultation with various third-party sources. Third party information has been sourced from means which Elders consider to be reliable. However, Elders has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy. Links or references to third party sources are provided for convenience only and do not constitute endorsement of material by third parties or any associated product or service offering. While Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in preparation of this article, many factors including environmental/seasonal factors and market conditions can impact its accuracy and currency. The information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and, to the extent permitted by law, Elders disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising out of any reliance upon the information contained in this article. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice specific to your circumstances relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.