The latest insights and information on the Australian sheep market as of July 2025
Steep fall in sheepmeat kills propel prices higher
After several years of flock liquidation, resulting in lower ewe joinings and the poor season resulting in lower lambing and weaning percentages, the days of large sheepmeat kills are behind us. Prices have responded accordingly. Processors have been caught short with winter kills as old season lamb numbers have been exhausted and the smaller new season lamb supplies have been delayed.
Any decent kill suckers are being sold to the kill now, so they are out of the system. Most are coming from central NSW or parts of the Riverina where they have February/March drop lambs. While the early lambing and marking percentages have held up ok, widespread reports are that numbers from the later drop will disappoint. Many producers are not able to maintain ewe condition enough to enable reasonable lambing percentages.
This is likely to leave a significant gap in supplies from August/September as old season lambs end and new season lambs are not yet available. The industry will endeavour to pull forward some lamb supply by early weaning and selling stores to feedlots to accelerate weight gains. But even feeding programs of 45 to 60days will leave a gap in supply for processors of lambs of slaughter weights. While suckers have yet to appear in Victoria, there has been a dribble of supply in July through NSW saleyards including at Forbes, Griffith, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga and Deniliquin.
The Mallee and Wimmera are one of the early regions for sucker lamb turn-off in the south. Extremely dry conditions however, had forced a lot of producers to sell-down pregnant ewes, so the potential pool of young lambs from the area would be lower this season.
The question is at what point do high lamb prices begin to affect processor demand?
At this stage, processors are willing to pay around $11 to 12/kg cw for lambs. For most processors however, this is above breakeven, with only the US market expected to be able to maintain demand at these price levels. There are still some major processors that have scheduled annual maintenance due and have suggested when supply gets to its lowest point they may consider shutting down for seasonal maintenance.
Chart shows combined lamb and mutton kill 24/25 vs 23/24 and 7year average. Source: MLA.
Heavy lambs continue to meet with good demand
Considering the season, the quality of heavy lambs has been exceptional. Many pens of heavy lambs have been selling at near record levels above $400/head, having been supplementary fed on grain to reach slaughter weights.
At this stage the US market seems to be the only export market that has not reacted to higher prices with volumes being maintained. US demand for protein has been particularly strong over the past few months with record prices being paid for beef. Higher beef prices are assisting a rise in US lamb wholesale prices. Over the medium term however, we would expect US export demand to begin to ease and level out prices paid for extra heavy lambs.
Given the season and lower ewe joinings, lambing percentages are down, and the lambs all had a rough start and early setback with the dry conditions, it seems it’s going to be very difficult to see large number of heavy weight lambs available before later in the year.The likelihood is that feedlotters will become active on store lambs with the view to get these on feed and accelerate weight gains such that lambs will be able to get to trade and export weights in as quick as time as possible.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for heavy lambs this year vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA.
Domestic demand will be affected by higher prices
Local supermarkets are using lamb as a loss-leader currently, with leg being prices around $13-15/kg which is mostly unchanged. Other lamb cuts have been increasing in price and over time this will lead to lower domestic consumption and reduced processors demand for supermarket weight lamb 22-26kg carcase weight (cw).
Agents said the percentage of lambs that would make kill grade at trade to heavy weights this spring would be limited. Some are suggesting as little as 10 to 20 per cent out of a flock, which is going to lead to challenges for supply for some time.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for trade lambs this year vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA.
Producers likely to offload lambs at lighter weights
If feed remains tight and decent hay cuts and grain harvests are elusive, there could be more lambs sold at lighter weights. Producers may "taking the money and run" and the first drafts of new season lambs.
A lot of young lambs had been early weaned this winter to try and make the most of limited paddock feed and to better target high-cost grain and hay supplements.
Given the likely shortage of heavier weight lambs, lighter lambs should meet with strong demand from processors, feeders and restockers. Many producers will be tempted to offload at lighter weight because there is a lot of work and feed required to get a lighter lamb into a shorn and grainfed 30kg-plus carcass weight prime lamb.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for light lambs this year vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA.
Lambing feeding to support restockers
Agents are reporting that producers are likely to be keen to offload lambs at lighter weights, given the money available for light lambs currently and the risk of holding these lambs hoping to finish these on pasture.
A case in point is the first line of new season lambs were sold at Deniliquin in the NSW Riverina last week. Weights were lower than this area usually provides at an estimated 22kg for the top pen which made $270/head; the second cut estimated around 20kg at $220/head; and the thirds selling to a restocking order at $194/head.
East coast feedlotters and processors have been in Western Australia trying to source store lambs over spring. They are offering $4.50/kg lw to truck these lambs across the Nullarbor for feedlot entry. With the season shaping up in WA as the best in several years, producers will likely delay decisions until the spring and potentially utilise feed reserve to finish lambs to slaughter weights on grass.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for restocker lambs this year vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA.
Mutton supplies limited
A sharp turnaround in mutton availability will have processors assessing demand from export markets and reassessing the composition and viability of kills. With the liquidation in the flock over the past few years, the ewe flock is now much younger. While there may be a limited cull relating the dry ewes from this year’s joining, it will be far below the levels of recent years.
Some processors looking to maintain kill volumes and keep abattoir staff employed may start to increase goat kills as a way of supplementing throughput. Goat prices and kills have been grinding higher since early this year as a shortage of mutton started to become apparent.
Processors continue to pay higher prices with a smaller yarding at Wagga this week selling to $7 to 8/kg cw to be $20/head higher than recent sales with some heavy wethers selling to $7.50 to 8.50/kg cw. Global mutton markets will be gradually adjusting to higher prices and these will lead to a decrease in demand. Price will be used as a way of balancing supply and demand.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicators prices for mutton this year vs 23/24 and 7-year average. Source: MLA.
From the rails
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
“I think given the fact the new season lambs average weights are well below a normal season on grass the supply end is delayed. I see September being very challenging for processors as the old lambs are running out, but the suckers are not coming on quickly enough."
"Any decent kill suckers are being sold to the kill now, so they are out of the system. As alluded to some processors are still profiting while others are in pain. There are still some major processors that have scheduled annual maintenance due, and all have suggested when supply gets to its lowest point, they will pull that card.
"Currently we have seen the highest hook rates in history this week with most competitive operators on $11.50 to 11.80/kg. With the current rain even this week and next I think we are nearing a peak for the winter pricing, but it has been well above what I had predicted prices to realise to who knows what is to come. - Henry Booth, Territory Sale Manager, Wagga.
| NSW sheepmeat saleyard indicatorsc/kg dw | ||||
| 27 July 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1192 | 1152 (+40) | 1044 (+148) | 823 (+369) |
| Trade | 1201 | 1190 (+11) | 1013 (+188) | 835 (+366) |
| Light | 996 | 994 (+2) | 903 (+93) | 655 (+341) |
| Restocker | 1007 | 1009 (-2) | 881 (+126) | 667 (+340) |
| Merino | 972 | 986 (-14) | 804 (+168) | 674 (+298) |
| Mutton | 703 | 711 (-8) | 667 (+36) | 448 (+255) |
Source: MLA
“We are back to really needing this rain that's been talked about later in the week. The bit of mud around feeders has dried up and we are back to needing rain again. Driving back through the Riverina late last week and it is still very ordinary in places with the grass painted green and no real feed."
"As you get further south, our suckers are going to be very immature and probably a month later than they normally would. And lambing and marking percentages are on the ordinary side. Even a lot of places that scan ewes and take out the dries are only getting in the 70 to 80per cent marketing rates. So, it hasn't been an outstanding lambing in places." - Nick Gray, State Livestock Manager Victoria/Riverina.
| Victorian sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 22 July 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1171 | 1204 (-33) | 1121 (+50) | 870 (+301) |
| Trade | 1142 | 1174 (-32) | 1092 (-50) | 832 (+310) |
| Light | 948 | 975 (-27) | 771 (+250) | 666 (+282) |
| Restocker | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Merino | 966 | 926 (+40) | 866 (+100) | 642 (+324) |
| Mutton | 685 | 678 (+7) | 711 (-26) | 473 (+212) |
Source: MLA
“Pastoral lambing well down with the season remaining dry and rain required across a broad area. Turnoff is now in full swing with numbers very strong at Ouyen last week. Record numbers were yarded – 17,500 lambs and 5,500 mutton with processors very strong across all ranges of stock – lamb and mutton both light and heavy. We are desperately trying to find homes for these store lambs to put on feed to help ease the supply shortage that the industry will be dealing with in the months ahead."
"Across on the west coast there have been some very good rains around Elliston over the past couple of weeks. Many clients received 6 to 7 inches since the start of June along the coastal areas. Lamb marking percentages generally either side of 50 per cent, except for very good operators getting into the 70pc’s – still well down on normal. Rainfall and early feed growth will be positive for the upcoming Circuit Sale on the 3 September. We are expecting some surplus young ewes to hit the market over the coming month which will inevitably meet good demand from restockers.
"On the Eyre Peninsula things have quietened right down with the season turning for the better with good rains in the past couple of weeks, although feed growth is still slow given winter conditions. We have marketed some New Season store lambs and weighing up more sales depending on how the season progresses from here.
"Pt Augusta and north has received 20 to 30mm over the past few weeks with more in the forecast with lamb marking just getting under way.
"Continuing to move numbers of dorpers off feed through saleyards. Good results $250/head for lambs with weight and cover around that 24/25kg cwt. Lighter condition lambs are making in the $140 to $160/head. Hard to get the last bit of finish on lambs due to feed conditions. We still have plenty of lambs currently on feed. Our lotfeeders are still chasing light lambs to finish.
"Working south to around Burra there was a bit of rain about, but it was patchy. Generally, in “clean-up” mode, marketing the tail of last season’s lambs. There has been a wide range of lamb marking percentages anywhere from 20pc to 100pc. This means supplies out of this area will be well down and late, due to the season with most looking to early wean and sell as stores unless the season turns around dramatically. Ram sales approaching with most studs offering lower numbers and expecting clearance issues due to low ewe flock numbers.
"Further down to Clare, ewe numbers are generally down across the area, as expected. Lamb marking percentages have been ok considering the dry conditions and other results around the state.
"There is a bit of feed appearing in paddocks now. Most young ewes (ewe lambs) have been retained for the spring off-shears sales – with positive results expected
"Down on the Yorke Peninsula, pleasantly surprised how the season has turned around over the past week or two with 25 to 40mm rain across most areas last week. This starting to see a bit of optimism in the season. Currently inspecting store lambs to decide on options – sell as stores or hold, this decision is 50/50 now the season is looking better and may depend on the strength of the system currently heading across from the west.
"Lamb marking down again this year – generally 65-75pc. Ewe numbers across district are significantly down given the dry conditions - like most areas of the state. About to move into Ram sales in August with most studs aware of potential pricing reduction and obvious clearance issues.
"Across in the Mid North at Roseworthy, recent rainfall has improved conditions and is providing some optimism in the season ahead. No grazing crops are being utilised just yet due to lack of growth and cold conditions with feed carts still being used in many parts for ewes and lambs. Hay getting very short, if not non-existent in some areas. Many clients are seriously considering marketing light 20-odd kg XB lambs for the $160 to 180/head currently being paid. Eastern states contacts looking for opportunities to trade light mutton, as well as lambs. Old season lambs have wrapped up around area. So we are looking for opportunities for store lambs both cross breeds and merinos.
"Down in the south-east, coastal rains have been very good, with areas of the upper south-east now starting to follow suit and improve with some pasture growth evident.
"Some weaned lambs have been placed on grain to try and accelerate time to market and allow the feed to come away. Very positive prices for any stock with weight and shape.
"The main area of concern across south Australia are now pastoral areas; the Riverlands and Murraylands. Hopefully these areas receive season making rain that is forecast this week.
"In summary, across South Australia there will be less lambs available with larger than normal numbers weaned early and sold as stores to feedlots where demand is strong and prices are solid given current finished lamb prices. Th earliest new season lambs available in numbers are looking likely for September/October. The extent of the rainfall forecast over the next week may change some marketing decisions and see some opt to finish on grass rather than sell store lambs.” - Damien Webb, State Livestock Manager SA (North).
| SA sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 22 July 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Trade | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Light | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Restocker | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Merino | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Mutton | n/a | n/a | n/an/a | |
Source: MLA
“There have been good rains through most livestock areas of Western Australia but feed remains tight with the cold weather. Water in dams could still be a factor in late summer which will drive a lot of marketing decisions with not a lot of run-off rain so far across the Great Southern and central and southern areas of WA."
"Lamb marking is slow as most of the flock now has returned to a July drop, early lambers are reporting high multiple survival rates.
"Large interest in feed lotting around all areas with the late start to the lamb turnoff in northern and eastern areas meaning these lambs will be a bit slower reaching slaughter weights. This will mean these lambs will run into the traditional southern turnoff period around October to mid-November which traditionally causes an oversupply. Hopefully, this season eastern states processors will take up the excess.
"Live exporters are gearing up for boats late September and will be competing in that 36 kg plus lamb market. The early discussions I have had with them on pricing is around the $4.20/kg to $4.50/kg lw . I’m not even sure if that is going to be enough to attract sales. Water availability as mentioned could the deciding factor around that.
"One processor has lifted their forward contracts to $9.30/kg cw out to mid-September but not a lot of uptake. Some talk of shearing lambs early November instead of selling as suckers and feeding to target March/April markets.
"Current processor price around $9.20/kg cw lambs and $7/kg cw mutton with most sheep being marketed through the saleyards where prices are at least $1.50/kg cw higher. We are seeing some interest from growers chasing young ewes or ewes with lambs at foot, but at this stage nothing around. Shearing has started through the eastern areas so that may see some opportunities arise.
“There are already contracts from east coast feeders at $4.50/kg lw for early season suckers.” - Wayne Peake, Livestock Manager WA.
| WA sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 22 July 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1070 | 961 (+109) | 847 (+223) | 700 (+370) |
| Trade | 1074 | 970 (+104) | 860 (+214) | 662 (+412) |
| Light | 877 | 869 (+8) | 864 (+13) | 510 (+367) |
| Restocker | 838 | 939 (-101) | 832 (+6) | 414 (+424) |
| Merino | 874 | 865 (+9) | 859 (+15) | 530 (+344) |
| Mutton | 649 | 643 (+6) | 633 (+16) | 321 (+328) |
Source: MLA
The Tasmanian sheep markets are currently on a break.
| TAS sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 22 July 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Trade | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Light | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Restocker | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Mutton | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Source: MLA
| Queensland sheepmeat saleyard indicators c/kg dw | ||||
| 22 July 25 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 1026 | 864 (+162) | 898 (+128) | 670 (+356) |
| Trade | 883 | 825 (+58) | 848 (+35) | 774 (+109) |
| Light | 799 | 778 (+21) | 711 (+88) | 739 (+60) |
| Restocker | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Mutton | 448 | 551 (-103) | 487 (-39) | 309 (+139) |
Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.
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The information contained in this article is given for general information purposes only, current at the time of first publication, and does not constitute professional advice. The article has been independently created by a human author using some degree of creativity through consultation with various third-party sources. Third party information has been sourced from means which Elders consider to be reliable. However, Elders has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy. Links or references to third party sources are provided for convenience only and do not constitute endorsement of material by third parties or any associated product or service offering. While Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in preparation of this article, many factors including environmental/seasonal factors and market conditions can impact its accuracy and currency. The information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and, to the extent permitted by law, Elders disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising out of any reliance upon the information contained in this article. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice specific to your circumstances relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.