Australian cattle prices have done well to navigate a steady path through April as US tariffs came into effect and processor demand was restricted by a series of short weeks around Easter and Anzac Day weekend.
Seasonal conditions remain mixed, good in the north and west, poor in the south, while the Australian dollar has been volatile fluctuating 4 US cents during the month as Trump moved forward with his tariff policy.
Cattle movement across Queensland was restricted by heavy flooding across northern, north-west and western Queensland which caused stock losses and damage to infrastructure such as roads and fences. Slow movement of Queensland cattle assisted prices in remaining firm in April, however, with the first of the frosts not far away, cattle movement across Queensland has started to pick up markedly. This will provide a stern test of Queensland cattle markets through May. Northern stock camps are currently being formed which should see Queensland markets well supplied for the next few months.
Half the country in good shape heading into winter
Entering May, half the east coast was in good shape, with fodder crops jumping out of the ground. Producers are in a position to make commercial decisions rather than decisions based on feed reserves. Meanwhile the other half were battling mounting feed and water issues. Producers across the south will struggle to get cattle to export weights given the lack of an autumn break. Many southern producers have moved to offload cattle early rather than risk another winter of feeding.
Conditions in Western Australia (WA) have turned around after a month of solid rainfall. Anywhere south of Wongan Hills, conditions are near ideal and get better as you head south and east. This is a huge relief for southern WA livestock operators who have been feeding livestock for the past two low rainfall years and have had trouble booking in livestock as the state battled processing capacity issues. WA livestock prices have begun to rise as supplies tighten. Processors will soon be looking towards the pastoral run of cattle from the Kimberley and Gascoyne to fill slaughter schedules.
In NSW, good rain up to 200mm was received in the northwest from Bourke through to Tamworth and Gunnedah. Lower totals of up to 50mm were received through the central west, Coonamble and Dubbo and east and into the Hunter Valley. Draw a line from Parkes to Molong and into Sydney and anywhere north is good.
Rain over Anzac weekend was a godsend for western NSW, south-west, central NSW and western Riverina, most of the Victorian Mallee and the Murray-Mallee in SA. This will allow winter crop planting in these areas and assist with pasture development, although it may be too late in some areas for much growth ahead of winter.
With the next fortnight looking dry and days getting shorter and nights cooler, given that sub soil moisture is so low, producers across large areas of central and southern NSW, Victoria and SA are likely to be feeding stock through the winter. Hay prices are beginning to poke higher, and farmers are starting to dig up fodder that was stored last year.
Once processors return to full working weeks in May, expect southern markets to start to build in a premium for slaughter weight cattle and suitable feeder cattle, with a shortage of cattle of weight across the south. This will encourage southern processors to head north and pay the freight bill to move Queensland cattle south.
Internationally, the global beef market is still working through the turmoil caused by Trumps imposition of a global tariff (10 pc on all goods and services exported to the US). The US per China trade war that has China and US imposing prohibitive tariffs on each other has seen trade between the two nations grind to a standstill. However, record April exports out of Australia indicates that global beef demand is continuing to remain solid.
Trade flows changing but demand remains solid
While it is difficult to be definitive, and the market is still dealing with tariff-free product still arriving in the US (which would have been on the water prior to 2 April, with a four week sailing time), it appears as though Australian exporters will pass on the cost of the tariff to US importers.
Looking at record large April beef exports out of Australia it appears that demand has been relatively unaffected. While April exports may include some carryover due to the impact of Cyclone Alfred, global demand for Australian beef shows no hint of slowing. Exports rose to 127,000t for the month (+21 per cent on last year), with US 37,000t (+37 per cent) and China 21,500t (+43 per cent) leading the charge.
Since the announcement, imported Australian 90CL prices into the US have roughly risen about the size of the tariff. However, trade uncertainty continues to limit out-front sales as the US lean beef complex adjusts to the changing trade environment. US product that would have been exported to China is being diverted to the domestic grinding meat market, however, US beef prices remain firm. May exports may paint a clearer picture of global beef dynamics, but at this stage, demand appears relatively unaffected.
In the US, record lean beef prices in 2024 and expected tight supply for 2025 have also caused large quick service chains to lean more on chicken. McDonald’s is rolling out a new permanent menu item (chicken strips) and has hinted at bringing back snack wraps that were discontinued in 2016. Other chains are looking to use more chicken in their features this Spring.
China appears to be digging in for a prolonged trade war, diversifying its imports away from the US. As a case in point. China has approved another 10 Australian sheepmeat works for export and has extended the licenses of seven others for new product categories.
With increased turnoff out of Queensland expected over May, cattle and beef markets are facing a sterner test. Assisting demand will be a return to full working weeks and a lack of slaughter weight cattle across southern Australia.
Improving confidence in the season across the north has seen northern restockers active across southern markets targeting well-bred cattle with good frame. The firming Angus feeder steer premium over flatbacks has encouraged southern feedlots to become more active on Angus heifers which will start to tighten the feeder heifer market and narrow the discount that has consistently been 50 to 80c per kg liveweight (lw).
Heavy steers cautiously higher
International trade flows are still sorting themselves out considering recent trade issues. US fed cattle prices have moved to near record levels as US feedlot supplies tighten and the US cattlemen shows signs, they may be about to commence herd rebuilding (although drought conditions linger for around 30 pc of the US herd).
The US is about to enter its peak consumption period ‘grilling season’ as temperatures increase. Steiner reports that US fast food chains are expected to feature chicken products in their promotions over Spring due to the high cost of beef.
The latest US Cattle on Feed (COF) Report put US COF at 2 pc below last year’s level with heifers on feed down 4 pc from year ago. Over one-third of US cattle area remains in drought which is limiting the trend towards herd rebuilding, although lower number of heifers moving into US feedlots shows that there are rebuilding moves afoot.
Lower US supplies and higher US cattle prices should continue to provide opportunities for Australian beef into north Asian markets. Australian exporters are reporting a pick-up in interest from China. US themed BBQ style restaurants in China, once freezers are empty of US brisket, are reportedly having to replace it with Australian product which is 40 pc cheaper and after testing with their customers is ‘just as good’. These changes in trade flows will see global markets adjust and may even push Australian beef export returns higher than before.
While the international outlook appears solid in the near-term, expect an increase supply out of Queensland in coming months as the processing sector catches up to cattle supply after being disrupted these past few months. A lack of heavy export weight cattle in southern areas should assist prices.
Queensland playing catch-up
Queensland heavy steers rates have started to pull-back as cattle movements across Queensland increase and processors work through a backlog of cattle.
Limited supplies of heavy export cattle in southern Australia should assist prices hold at levels above last year.
This chart shows the c per kg lw national saleyard indicator price for heavy steers in 24 per 25 versus 23 per 24, and the seven-year average. Source: MLA.
Cow markets volatile
Saleyard cow markets have been volatile. Southern producers rushed to the saleyards to grab the higher prices, allowing them to fill slaughter schedules and pullback rates. Week-to-week fluctuations of up to 50c per kg lw have not been uncommon on cows throughout April.
Large runs of cows have started to be offered out of pastoral areas across the NT which has cooled the market. Central Queensland (CQ) works have been inundated with cattle with slaughter schedules quickly filling. This has put some pressure on over the hooks rates which have moved back to $5.60 per kg lw in CQ and $5.80 per kg lw in southern Queensland.
There is still no sign of southern processors being active in Queensland saleyards, although they could be signing paddock deals. With southern direct to works rates for cows $6-6.30 per kg lw and better money in southern yards, it is a matter of time before southern processors shift buying towards Queensland. This week’s Dalby sale that yarded 8,500 head was the first ‘normal’ yarding in southern Queensland in over a month.
This chart shows the margin between Victoria and Queensland cow saleyard prices in c per kg lw. Source: MLA.
One large southern Queensland processor has said it wants to include a larger proportion of cows in its kills to increase processing efficiency and to take advantage of strong manufacturing beef processing margins. This and increased competition from southern processors should underpin cow markets moving forward into winter.
Signs are promising despite lift in Queensland supply
A renewed focus on cow processing and increased southern processing competition should underpin cow prices, despite rising Queensland supplies.
Export demand for lean beef remains strong despite the recent imposition of a 10 pc US tariff.
This chart shows the c per kg lw national saleyard indicator price for cows in 24 per 25 versus 23 per 24 and the seven-year average. Source: MLA.
Southern feeders shift towards heifers
Tight supplies of suitable heavy weight feeders have seen southern feeder prices improve over the past month which has driven a rise in the national saleyard indicator. But there is a distinct difference in the price of cattle suited to southern feedlots and those in the north. The Angus feeder premium over flatback feeders has widened to over 50c per kg lw, illustrating the difficultly in sourcing suitable supplies in the south versus the north.
With feeder supplies out of Queensland starting to ramp up and pressure the southern Queensland flatback feeder price downwards and southern Angus feeders in tight supply, the Angus spread is widening forcing southern feedlots to look towards a greater proportion of Angus heifers in the mix. This should help tighten the large discount heifers have been carrying over the past year as restockers remained on the sideline.
With feed abundant in Queensland and the market for heavy grassfed steers likely to remain solid, flatback feeder steer prices will need to maintain a 20c per kg lw premium to heavy steers otherwise some Queensland producers could opt to grow these cattle out.
Divide between north and south grows
Tight supplies of southern feeder cattle combined with the north heading into its peak turnoff period has forced the Angus premium to flatbacks above 50c per kg lw which is increasing southern feedlot heifer demand.
Queensland feeders need to maintain at least a 20c per kg lw premium to heavy steers to ensure Queensland producers don’t opt to grass finish.
This chart shows c per kg lw national saleyard indicator price for feeder steers in 24 per 25 versus 23 per 24 and the seven-year average. Source: MLA.
Northern restocker activity supports a lift in values
A solid turnaround in northern seasonal conditions since the end of February has sparked a resurgence in restocker demand across northern areas. Seasonal conditions don’t get too much better drawing a line from Parkes to Molong north. Further rain of 50 to 60mm across northern NSW has locked in good season for producers across north-west NSW and the northern tablelands and this has seen them active in southern markets buying well-bred store cattle with good frame.
Restocker cattle still good value
Northern restocker activity in southern markets has seen restocker values strengthen.
Expect northern restockers to continue buying as southern store cattle markets will most likely remain tough with the autumn break already too late to generate pasture growth for many.
Restocker cattle remain well priced compared to feeders and this will continue to support restocker cattle prices.
This chart shows c per kg lw saleyard indicator prices for Victorian and Queensland feeder steers. Source: MLA.
Any sort of widespread break across southern Australia will see restocker prices improve as store supplies tighten.
A sure sign of the pickup in restocker confidence is that the heifer discount is starting to narrow back towards its normal range. In times of rebuilding the restocker heifer price can push above the feeder price – currently it remains at a wide 60c per kg lw discount to restocker steers and feeders.
This chart shows the margin between saleyard indicator values for restocker heifers versus restocker steers. Source: MLA.
From the rails
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
“Wagga Wagga yarded 8,500 cattle on Monday and Tamworth yarded 3,500. Indications on the cow job is that there's plenty of them about, so they've probably shaved 20 to 30c/kg lw off where we got to last week. It's quite amazing with the feed we've got, we are still seeing those sorts of numbers run in the north up here.
“I think there will be 3,000 or more at Gunnedah on Tuesday, so still plenty of cattle about for processing or restocking, but the market has held up well.
“It just looks as though until we get that rain, the numbers are going to keep coming in and the processors are going to be well supplied for the time being.
“Black feeders are approximately $4.50/kg lw on farm.
“Crossbred cattle, Herefords and Black Baldys (British breed cattle) are $4 and $4.10/kg lw if you have an EU accreditation.” - Nik Hannaford, Elders NSW State Livestock Manager.
NSW saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 5/05/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 364 | 372 (-8) | 375 (-11) | 302 (+62) |
| Processor cow | 286 | 296 (-10) | 323 (-37) | 2214 (+72) |
| Feeder steer | 387 | 407 (-10) | 364 (-9) | 329 (+68) |
| Restocker steer | 407 | 407 (n/c) | 392 (+5) | 331 (+76) |
| Restocker heifer | 326 | 341 (-15) | 332 (-6) | 271 (+55) |
Source: MLA
“We are into the last of the short weeks up here in Queensland. Once we get this week out of the way, we're back to normal.
“There are 6,000 cattle at the Roma sale this week and around 3,000 at Dalby. There were 8,500 at Roma last week and Dalby had about 6,000. But the market held up well, cows made around that $3/kg lw and bullocks $3.50 to $3.60/kg lw. Even the treated bullocks made $3.50/kg lw, and feeders up to $3.90/kg lw, with the odd case of $3.95/kg lw at Roma.
“Domestic trade cattle are very strong, selling up to $4/kg lw on steers and the heifers in that $3.50 to $3.60/kg bracket. In your weaner steers and heifers, it is looking about the same as the last few weeks.
“Heifers are in that $3.50 to $3.60/kg lw for the top end, but as quality falls back, it’s more like $3/kg lw. If they are real off type, you get back to $2.80/kg lw. On weaner steers, probably looking more like $4.30 to $4.40/kg with some up to $4.50/kg lw.
“As far as feeders in the paddock go, crossbred $3.80 to $3.85/kg lw and Angus $4.40/kg lw.
“We had an Elders feeder and weaner sale here on Friday. There were 1700 cattle, and the market was approximately $4.20/kg lw for Angus type feeders.
“Really good, crossbred steers made $3.90 to $3.95/kg lw. These cattle came from Tambo and the Western Downs, with one lot coming up from Molong.” - Ashley Loveday, Elders Livestock Sales Manager Qld/NT.
Queensland saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 5/05/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 330 | 322 (+8) | 367 (-37) | 259 (+71) |
| Processor cow | 269 | 276 (-7) | 302 (-33) | 202 (+67) |
| Feeder steer | 370 | 370 (n/c) | 384 (-14) | 314 (+56) |
| Restocker steer | 409 | 384 (+25) | 405 (+4) | 335 (+74) |
| Restocker heifer | 324 | 328 (-4) | 332 (-8) | 241 (+73) |
Source: MLA
“I got my grass fix last week up in Alice Springs for the cattle sale. It was great to walk off the plane into an environment where it was green with grass that's between your ankle and your knee height. Then you come back down south, and you realise just how tough it is in the south-east.
“Markets are holding up well all things considered. Anything with condition and quality cattle, sheep, lamb, it's all the same. If it's got weight and it's got shape, it's making money.
“Up at the Alice sale last week we had 2,200 head yarded which was a combination of prime cattle and feeders.
“The quality was good, and the cattle were showing the season with not too many roughies yarded, consequently they sold to good rates.
“The lead run of big organic steers sold up to $4.38/kg lw which was exciting for the run of these cattle. Heavy steers were between $3.20 to $3.56/kg lw for the best of the heavy steers.
“Better heavy cows were $2.40/kg to the mid $2.80s/kg lw and young cows with shape and quality were up to $3/kg lw. Feeders were that $3.20 to $3.50/kg lw for mainly Reds, not too many Blacks in them, mainly good droughty cross cattle.
“The heifer section was made up of heifers with shape and breeding which saw Charolais heifers sell to $2.98/kg. With a beautiful line of Poll Hereford heifers in the Elders run from Todd River and Todmorden. These sold between that $2.80 to $2.90/kg lw for the best heifers, while organics at 320kgs made $3.10/kg lw. All in all, good prices considering the freight to get them anywhere. Not a big buying gallery, but those present absolutely wanted to be there and absorb cattle.
“There is a store sale on at Mt Gambier at the end of the week. It will be interesting to see the numbers which do come forward. It’s a bit difficult as growers decide they're too dry and decide to offer cattle through the saleyard daily, I think that'll be well supported.
“Sales are being very well supported for the feeder weight cattle by the feedlots and like. With little light heifers not everyone's cup of tea, but they have improved immensely compared to where they were six or eight weeks ago.” - Laryn Gogel, Elders Livestock Sales Manager, South Australia.
SA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 5/05/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 384 | 366 (+18) | 397 (-13) | 296 (+88) |
| Processor cow | 287 | 282 (+5) | 328 (-41) | 242 (+45) |
| Feeder steer | 385 | 352 (+13) | 383 (-18) | 275 (+90) |
| Restocker steer | 379 | 314 (+65) | 335 (+44) | 268 (+111) |
| Restocker heifer | 304 | 317 (-13) | 292 (+12) | 261 (+53) |
Source: MLA
“Tassie remains dry, whiich is quite unprecedented, particularly the high rainfall areas of the far north-west coast which have been some of the safest areas in all of Australia for consistency of rainfall.
“Cattle are going in two different directions, with prime stock onwards and upwards while the store/restocker cattle have hit a wall due to the unusual seasonal conditions across the state. Hopefully, rain forecast of 10 to 20mm over the next few days will brighten prospects for restocker activity.” - Gavin Coombe, Elders State Livestock Manager, Tasmania.
Tasmania saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 5/05/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 294 | 294 (n/c) | 304 (-10) | 222 (+72) |
| Processor cow | 248 | 250 (-2) | 239 (+9) | 144 (+104) |
| Feeder steer | 315 | 322 (-7) | 280 (+35) | 199 (+116) |
Source: MLA
“There were big yardings at Wagga, Mortlake and Wodonga this week, so, we've got plenty of cattle. The issue we've got is cattle or livestock with weight are selling well but it's the tail end that is difficult. Little cattle in the yards have become very viable again.
“It’s the haves and have nots, so anything with weight is selling itself, but cattle at the tail end, across all yards through Victoria and the Riverina, the little steers and little heifers, they're tough.
“We're just hanging out for a rain. It won’t rain grass, but it will rain confidence straight away.
“You can get $6.20 to $6.50/kg carcass weight (cw) in places for a cow, $7.50/kg cw for a grass-fed bullock and some of the program grassfed cattle you can get $8/kg cw plus, so we are hanging in there for a rain.” - Peter Homann, National Livestock Manager.
Victoria saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 5/05/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 390 | 390 (n/c) | 392 (-2) | 313 (+77) |
| Processor cow | 306 | 303 (+3) | 320 (-14) | 227 (+79) |
| Feeder steer | 382 | 366 (+16) | 373 (+9) | 288 (+92) |
| Restocker steer | 370 | 343 (+27) | 354 (+16) | 249 (+121) |
| Restocker heifer | 324 | 331 (-7) | 325 (-1) | 246 (+78) |
Source: MLA
“Western Australia has been relatively quiet in recent weeks, with yard numbers easing back slightly or still on the decline. Adding to that, overall cattle quality is beginning to taper off as well.
“What’s been particularly noteworthy is the weight range of cattle coming through the yards. Around 70 pc of the yarding is now made up of lighter cattle, typically between 210kg and 320kg. This shift in weight profile has aligned well with the recent patchy rainfall across the region, which has sparked renewed interest from graziers. As a result, there’s been a strong demand for lighter store-type cattle, which has been a welcome boost to the market.
“Despite this activity, processor prices remain steady. Feeder steers are currently trading between $3.50 and $4.15/kg live weight, while feeder heifers are bringing in around $3.40 to $3.80/kg live weight. On the processing front, works prices are holding between $5.00 and $6.00/kg carcass weight, depending on the size and type of the consignment.
“Meanwhile, the annual movement of Kimberley cattle has commenced, with cows starting to flow south. All major processors are currently taking cows, and this supply chain is expected to continue through to September or October.” - Michael Longford, Elders Livestock Sales Manager, WA.
WA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 21/03/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 293 | 300 (-7) | 292 (+1) | 243 (+50) |
| Processor cow | 256 | 248 (+8) | 239 (+17) | 172 (+84) |
| Feeder steer | 382 | 346 (+36) | 339 (+43) | 273 (+109) |
| Restocker steer | 380 | 281 (+99) | 299 (+81) | 186 (+194) |
| Restocker heifer | 270 | 268 (+2) | 186 (+84) | 183 (+87) |
Source: MLA
Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.
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The information contained in this article is given for general information purposes only, current at the time of first publication, and does not constitute professional advice. The article has been independently created by a human author using some degree of creativity through consultation with various third-party sources. Third party information has been sourced from means which Elders consider to be reliable. However, Elders has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy. Links or references to third party sources are provided for convenience only and do not constitute endorsement of material by third parties or any associated product or service offering. While Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in preparation of this article, many factors including environmental/seasonal factors and market conditions can impact its accuracy and currency. The information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and, to the extent permitted by law, Elders disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising out of any reliance upon the information contained in this article. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice specific to your circumstances relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.