It’s been a positive start to the year for the local cattle market. Underpinning the market has been a lower $A and rising international beef prices. These are aiding processing margins and ensuring solid demand for slaughter cattle, pushing prices 20-30c/kg lw above where they finished 2024.
The local processing sector worked hard to develop capacity in 2024 pushing output from 130,000 head/week in 2023 to an estimated 155,000/week in 2025. This will stand the industry in good stead throughout 2025. The positive start to the year is not limited to the cattle slaughter sector.
Good signs for 2025 across all sectors
A weaker $A and rising international beef prices have ensured solid local processing margins entering 2025 and a strong start to the year for slaughter cattle.
In contrast to this time last year, all major sectors (restockers, feedlots and live exports) are showing promising signs for the year ahead.
This chart shows prices for Australian beef exported to the US in Ac/kg. Source: USDA
Compared to last year, restocker confidence has lifted. Northern restocker buying was a feature at the January southern weaner sales, ensuring a solid price trend, despite the absence of local demand owing to the poor southern season. Renewed restocker confidence is due to improved cash flow and general optimism about the future of cattle prices. Restocker cattle prices have started to move back above slaughter categories and the unusually heavy discount for heifers that prevailed for most of 2024 is narrowing.
The live cattle export sector is also much better placed than this time last year. The early issuing of Indonesian import permits and fresh orders for heavier cattle for Vietnam has allowed trucks and ships to keep working across northern Australia in contrast to last year when delays with issuing Indonesian permits kept the trade at a standstill until late February.
The other big sector of the Australian cattle industry - the feedlots - look set for a strong year. There are growing signs that US grainfed beef production will ease from Q2 2025. A ban on Mexican feeder imports has seen US feedlot placements fall, while higher corn prices may limit the ability of the industry to counter lower placements by feeding to heavier weights. US and Brazilian cattle prices have risen by around 10 per cent (pc) since mid-November as an indication that production levels may be about to fall. Lower US beef production, a weaker $A and access to cheap supplies of Australian feed grain will make Australian grainfed beef more competitive in global beef markets in 2025.
This chart shows the price of cattle in the US and Brazil. Source: LSEG Workstation
The Australian cattle and beef market is ticking a lot of boxes for a positive 2025. However, premiums for wagyu and wagyu cross cattle remain a key area of weakness as cost-of-living pressures push demand for beef towards lower cost beef items. Also, we are still waiting for the northern wet season to fully develop and deliver some widespread monsoonal rains for northern Australia.
Good seasonal conditions will allow northern Australian cattlemen to be strategic in terms of when they turn cattle off rather than being dependent on the southern feeder steer market.
Heavy steer prices bounce
Heavy steer values have opened the year strongly with the national heavy steer saleyard indicator currently at 355c/kg lw vs 321 c/kg lw at the end of 2024. This is about where southern direct to work quotes have opened the year at 670c/kg dw for four-tooth heavy grassfed ox with HGP.
This chart shows the national heavy steer saleyard indicator price vs last year and the 7yr average. Source: MLA
The 100-day grainfed contract price moved to $7/kg dw for April with indications it may move to $7.10/kg dw in May in-line with improvements in international markets and a weaker $A.
With US fed beef production expected to ease from Q2 2025, local Australian heavy steers values look to be well supported in coming months.
Cows undervalued?
US lean beef prices have gained nearly 70Ac/kg in the past few weeks, taking the margin between export prices and cows to near record levels and over double the long-term average.
This chart shows 90CL beef export prices to the US vs the national saleyard cow price indicator. Source: MLA
This chart shows the difference between 90CL beef export prices to the US vs the national saleyard cow price indicator. Source: MLA
With the heavy turnoff across southern areas after the spring failed last year, cow supplies should start to tighten and force southern processors north much earlier than normal to maintain kills. Increased competition from southern processors should see the processing sector start to compete away some margin to maintain throughput.
Two schools of thought on feeder steers
Currently local feeder cattle swaps are trading at an inverse - $3.95/kg for January but falling to $3.65/kg by July. The nearby strength in feeder steer prices is associated with increased buying by feedlots who were caught short late last year after producers backed out of space bookings (due to low feeder prices and early northern season rainfall).
One school of thought is that the feeder market will be well supplied mid-year by cattle that were held back from the market in late 2024.
Feeder cattle supplies may be dictated by the size of the premium to heavy steers and pasture availability. If the feeder premium narrows too much and the feed is there, producers may opt to hang onto cattle and finish on grass, thereby tightening feeder cattle availability.
This chart shows the feeder steer premium over the heavy steer saleyard price. Source: MLA
However, if the heavy steer price goes up (as shown opposite) and the feeder steer price goes down, producers will be encouraged to finish to export weights on grass, reducing feeder cattle availability. This will depend on how the northern season pans out. But if the feeder steer premium falls to below 20c/kg lw producers, will be encouraged to hold onto cattle and finish on grass rather than accept the feeder steer price, provided they are confident that the feed is there.
With rising prices for grainfed beef (shown in the graph above) and cheap grain availability, local feedlot economics look healthy. It is likely that the feedlots will bid up feeder steer prices to ensure feeding capacity is utilised at a high level.
Restockers dip their toe back in
One of the major factors that held the cattle market back in 2024 was a lack of restocker buying. The sharp downturn in prices in late 2023 damaged cash flow and confidence and reduced restocker activity in 2024. After a year of improving cattle prices, cash flow positions have improved which has led to a cautious improvement in restocker buying in markets in early 2025.
Restocker cattle premiums have started to move back to normal and the unusually heavy discount for heifers that prevailed for most of 2024 should start narrowing as restocker confidence builds throughout 2025.
This chart shows the stocker premium over feeder steers. Source: MLA
With all sectors set-up for a relatively strong 2025, and signs that the US is entering the rebuilding phase of its cattle cycle, we could be seeing the best restocker buying opportunities for years to come, particularly on heifers.
From the rail
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
The Queensland market is starting to feel the impact of the hot and dry weather that has led to a lift in saleyard numbers this week. The feeder market has come under pressure as large lines of cattle from western Queensland come forward.
Slaughter categories have held up better, but some processors have already started to adjust grids downward after increases to start the year.
Queensland saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 27/11/2024 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 345 | 346 (-1) | 314 (+31) | 293 (+52) |
| Processor cow | 278 | 290 (-12) | 286 (-8) | 256 (+22) |
| Feeder steer | 363 | 401 (-38) | 397 (-34) | 345 (+18) |
| Restocker steer | 407 | 444 (-37) | 423 (-16) | 377 (+30) |
Source: MLA
"We are seeing a bit of a rush on numbers with the heat and pockets of dry weather, particularly around where I am around Gunnedah and Tamworth. But I would think that numbers will slow a bit as we get into February and March.
With very large yardings this week we have seen a correction in feeder prices for both steers and heifers. Dubbo’s market was considerably cheaper with heifer feeder prices falling up to 30c/kg lw. Indications for revised rate $3.20-3.30/kg lw, crossbred feeder steers back $3.80-$3.90/kg lw, Angus still around $4/kg lw.
Export not as affected but have seen cow price fall 10-15c/kg lw." - Nik Hannaford, NSW State Livestock Manager.
NSW saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 24/01/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 351 | 348 (+3) | 298 (+53) | 296 (+55) |
| Processor cow | 289 | 297 (-8) | 268 (+21) | 256 (+33) |
| Feeder steer | 364 | 377 (-13) | 358 (+6) | 343 (+21) |
| Restocker steer | 364 | 385 (-21) | 405 (-51) | 358 (+6) |
Source: MLA
"It’s been a busy few weeks in southern markets. We have probably sold too many in too little time to be truthful and prices just flattened out across the last few sales.
The feedlotters have been very active taking large lines of quality cattle.
Abattoirs are working through their bookings, but you can still find a bit of space which is unusual for this time of year."- Peter Homann, National Livestock Manager.
Victoria saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 24/01/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 351 | 356 (-5) | 338 (+13) | 289 (+62) |
| Processor cow | 292 | 297 (-5) | 282 (+10) | 261 (+31) |
| Feeder steer | 345 | 341 (+4) | 322 (+23) | 297 (+48) |
| Restocker steer | 308 | 332 (-24) | 373 (-65) | 290 (+18) |
Source: MLA
SA cattle prices have held well. Although they didn’t enjoy the same level of appreciation as other east coast markets as northern restocker activity has been focussed on north-eastern Victoria where the freight cost is lower to take cattle home. Slaughter categories look to be well supported with grid prices opening the year strong as processors look to take advantage of the strong international beef prices.
SA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 24/01/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 346 | 357 (-11) | 331 (+15) | 292 (+54) |
| Processor cow | 277 | 284 (-7) | 280 (-3) | 247 (+30) |
| Feeder steer | 339 | 351 (-12) | 310 (+29) | 289 (+50) |
| Restocker steer | 312 | 310 (+2) | 280 (+32) | 268 (+44) |
Source: MLA
“The WA market has opened the year firmer with prices of cows up around 20c/kg lw on pre-Christmas rates. We are just in the middle of our southern weaner sales and the weaners are selling well to good competition, mainly from feedlotters. The weaners are a little heavier than last year currently with steers $3.50-$3.90/kg lw and heifers $2.50-2.80/kg lw. The supermarkets have locked grainfed supplies in until September which has underpinned the weaner market. Current contract price is $7/kg on a domestic trade steer.
Even though the hay season has been good there is a bit of a turnoff of stock as Great Southern is running out of water. The south-west is better situated with good feed reserves and enough water.
Cow prices have lifted at the saleyards, but abattoirs are fully booked until the end of March. Once we get through this current flush of cattle supplies are likely to tighten up as we move through autumn.” - Michael Longford, Elders Livestock Sales Manager, WA
WA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 22/01/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 266 | 266 (n/c) | 239 (+27) | 198 (+68) |
| Processor cow | 217 | 215 (+2) | 200 (+17) | 158 (+59) |
| Feeder steer | 304 | 295 (+9) | 269 (+35) | 218 (+86) |
Source: MLA
The market has opened solidly with prices generally up 10-20c/kg lw, grassfed program cattle at $7/kg dw. The better cows are selling at $5.60-5.80/kg dw but given the number of cattle that went out last year, I’m expecting numbers to tighten up in a month or two.
The store/feeder market is strong at around $3.90-4.20/kg for cattle 400-500kg with yearling steers at $4-4.60/kg.
Our heifer market has strengthened considerably with heavier heifers making $3.50-3.60/kg lw with lighter heifers 280-300khgs selling to $3.30-3.50/kg. These will go back to the paddock to target our seasonal prices spike around September.
Our season has really turned around in late November/ early December, allowing plenty of fodder and hay to be cut. Our hay prices have gone from $190-200/bale to $80-100/bale owing to greater availability. Our early weaners will start hitting the saleyards in early March, and we are expecting $4.20-4.70/kg up to $5/kg lw. We are excited about the calves we will send to the sales in March.” - Gavin Coombe, Elders State Livestock Manager, Tasmania
Tasmania saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 24/01/2025 | +/- week | +/1 month | +/- year | |
| Heavy steer | 294 | 306 (-12) | 262 (+32) | 248 (+46) |
| Processor cow | 282 | 262 (+20) | 256 (+26) | 182 (+100) |
Source: MLA
Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.
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