Read the latest insights and information on the Australian cattle market for November 2026*.
Best general conditions since 2022 impact sentiment
Widespread October rainfall has calmed nerves about forecasts for a dry spring/summer due to El Nino. The largest falls were in areas most in need and with some follow-up in the forecast, grazier sentiment has shifted markedly from sell to buy.
Looking at the cool season rainfall deciles, general conditions are the best since 2022 (the New South Wales (NSW) Monaro and southern Western Australia (WA) are the exceptions). This explains why local cattle values have rebounded so strongly since late September, up 5 to 7 per cent (pc) for slaughter ready cattle, 7 to 8 pc for feeders and 15 to 25 pc for restocker steers and heifers, respectively.
The industry has done well to navigate a difficult export market environment the past few months. Through much of the past quarter Australian exports to north Asia were restricted by higher out-of-quota safeguard tariffs. In the US, Trump expanded tariff-free quota access for South American beef which increased competition for Australian frozen lean beef exports.
Australian processors managed by reducing slaughter, slowing exports and expanding stocks of frozen beef ready for shipment to north Asia ahead of the quota reset on 1 January 2027. Mid-year cattle slaughter has since run behind year-ago levels, after being well above earlier this year due to forced turnoff through southern Queensland (Qld) and northern NSW during autumn.
This chart shows weekly cattle slaughter. Source: NLRS
The consequence of the difficult export environment is borne out in October exports which were just 122,000 tonnes; the lowest non-January exports since Cyclone Alfred affected March 2025 exports and back 12 pc year on year. Our level of dependence on the North American market has risen further to 43 pc of all exports versus 38 pc last month, and 32 to 35 pc over the past two years
This chart shows Australian monthly beef exports. Source: DAFF.
In the past week, conditions have tentatively improved in beef export markets. Buying has resumed for China and Korea in lieu of the 1 January quota reset, improving competition for Australian beef exports. It has also forced a 6USc/lb (19Ac/kg) lift in US offers for lean imported manufacturing beef – the largest weekly rise this year.
Across Asia, buying interest for early next year is gradually increasing although importers are struggling with high inventories and sluggish demand. Market sources reported that cash flow pressures prompted some traders to discount older stocks, with importers hoping for a pickup in buying activity during November.
Chinese customs figures show the impact of safeguard restrictions with total beef imports at 566,808 tonnes in Q3 2026, down 31 pc year-on-year and the lowest since the first quarter of 2022. This was the steepest quarterly contraction since 2012. With the imported beef pipeline contracting sharply, a rebound in activity is likely in coming months as stocks fall and safeguard restrictions are lifted.
Beef export market conditions should continue to improve into year’s end and may look stronger through the first part of next year, which should assist demand for local slaughter cattle and underpin Australian cattle prices.
While export market conditions are improving, further rises above current levels will be limited by the high cost of replacement cattle and weak processing and feeding margins. Rather than continue to chase the market higher, processors will likely manage cattle demand by reducing slaughter levels.
Heavy steer values supported by falling US production
Heavy steers values have forged to new record levels with the national saleyard average reaching 480c/kg in October, exceeding levels recorded late last year and before that in 2022. Driving prices higher was a tightening in supply as the northern season ends and supplies of heavy export cattle remaining low in the south.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for heavy steers in 2025 verse 2026 and the 3-year average. Source: MLA
Prices remain supported by lower fed beef supplies out of the US. Since May, US feedlots have reduced placements by a little over 800,000 head. The reduction in placements could result in a marketing hole developing in US fed beef supplies sometime in Q1 2027 which will further reduce export competition from US beef.
The outlook for Australian grainfed beef exports is complicated by uncertainty surrounding access to the Chinese market for US beef plants. Although China renewed registrations for hundreds of US beef establishments earlier this year, outstanding plant suspensions, tariffs and inspection requirements continued to complicate market access for US exporters into China (Source: Expana).
Cow saleyard prices set new record
The record national average saleyard price for cows posted at 403c/kg this week exceeded levels registered in 2022 as the herd recovered from drought. The record price and strong demand for cows is mainly due to cows being the simplest and most cost-effective way of keeping processing chains going amid the sharp rise in cattle procurement costs over the past month.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for cows 2025 & 2026 and 3yr average. Source: MLA.
Although US beef export offers increased this week, processing margins remain well below levels of the past couple of years which may limit further upside.
Competition from South American exporters in the US hasn’t really been too intense. Only around 40 pc of the additional (100,000 tonnes) tariff free US beef import quota was used in September with indications that it may increase to 55 pc in October. Prices were affected moderately following Trump’s announcement of the affordable temporary beef quota but have started to recover.
Steiner is reporting that while spot supplies remain ample in the US, getting imported offers for Q1 2027 has become more difficult. Local processing sector cutbacks, higher cattle procurement costs, increased buying competition from north Asia and the reinstatement of the 26.4 per cent tariff on South American beef imports were all sighted as factors contributing to the rise in US prices.
Firming lean beef export prices and tight local cow slaughter supplies should support cow values into the backend of this year and early next year, however, weak processing margins will limit processing demand and price upside from current levels.
Early end to northern season tightens feeder supplies
After no rain for 6 months, most of Queensland received 100 to 300mm during October, making it the best start to the wet season in a decade.
Queensland graziers were very current with their marketing as feed quality had been going backwards rapidly before the rain. Many took the opportunity to market cattle at lighter weights down to 400kg on the rise in prices two months ago.
Most will now lock away whatever they had left until the New Year. The Argus delivered Downs flatback feeder index is nearing record highs and currently sits in the 99th percentile of pricing, reflecting how tight the current feeder supply situation is in Queensland.
Northern feedlots will likely fall back on company owned cattle and cattle contracted earlier to fill the gap. Northern buying was evident throughout NSW this week as feedlotters try to get some cattle around them before the industry winds down for Christmas. Large numbers of heavy feeders are starting to move out of pastoral areas of western NSW and are meeting solid demand.
Two indicators that illustrate how tight the supply situation is. Firstly, the Angus feeder cattle spread is rising counter seasonally reflecting the shortage of southern feeders but also the impact of northern feedlot competition in southern markets. Secondly, feeder demand for heifers has picked up with the spread to restocker heifers virtually disappearing.
It will be interesting to see how the feedlot industry navigates its way through what is expected to be one of the tightest supply periods of recent times. Extending time on feed and feeding to heavier weights has been the strategy that US feedlots have used to combat tight feeder supply and negative feeding margins.
The 100-day grainfed contract for February at 900c/kg is higher than November and December but still hardly better than grassfed program money. With grain prices expected to be $400 to $450/tonne compared to around $330 to $350/tonne last year and feeder steers around $1/kg higher, feedlot margins are the worst since 2022.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for feeder steers and heifers in 2025 and 2026 & the 3yr avg. Source: MLA.
Market sending signal to build herds
Restocking demand from backgrounders in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales has driven the market for light cattle to 600 to 720c/kg. Graziers in these areas have not had a chance to restock or bring home cattle that were sent for agistment earlier in the year and are keen to get some cattle around them. Northern restocking demand was very evident at both Dubbo and Wagga where they competed with feedlots and processors for suitable stock.
Restocker heifer values have gained around 25 per cent over the past month and have gone vertical in recent weeks. However, they are still at a solid discount to restocker steers, suggesting that graziers would rather focus on a shorter backgrounding trade than embark on a rebuild of nucleus herds.
Any narrowing of the heifer discount would suggest that graziers are starting to rebuild herds, which is expected to some degree across the south through 2027.
This chart shows c/kg lw national saleyard indicator price for restocker steers in 2025 and 2026 & the 3yr avg. Source: MLA.
High cost of cattle dampens live export market
The high cost of Australian cattle and Indonesia’s domestic price caps and a volatile Rupiah have combined to make difficult trading conditions, leading to cattle exports to contract by 23.5 per cent to 447,000 head for the year so far.
A wider issue is the growing involvement of state-owned enterprises in Indonesia’s food supply. This has seen a diversification of protein import purchases this year to include cheaper South American beef and buffalo meat or order to ease cost of living pressures.
Buying to stock feedlots for Ramadan and Lebaran would normally have a positive effect on trade and prices at this time of year, but so far buying has been restrained.
Live cattle export prices are 450-460c/kg Darwin. Given the rise in southern cattle prices, there may be a pull of cattle away from the live export trade towards southern feeder or fat markets.
From the rails
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
“There were numerous trucking delays that shortened available supplies across the northern Australia and culminated in last week’s Charters Towers sales being a cracker.
“Processors paid mid $4.50/kgs for a good heavy six-tooth and full mouth HGP Brahman steers, 620-640kg which is great money for this type of cattle.
“Feedlot entry cattle brahman cattle were very solid as well.
“Live export cattle were under a bit of pressure at $4.50 to $4.60/kg Darwin.” - Paul McCormick, Livestock Manager, Customer Solutions (Townsville)
“After no rain for six months, Central Queensland received anywhere from 100 to 300mm, with more in the forecast for this week.
“Graziers across the region were very current with their marketing as feed quality had been going backwards rapidly. Many took the opportunity to market cattle at lighter weights down to 400kg on the rise in prices two months ago.
“Most will now lock away whatever they have left until the New Year. Feedlots will fall back on company-owned cattle and cattle contracted earlier to fill the gap.
“CQ works have lost days with the rain and will most likely look at closing for seasonal maintenance a week or two ahead of normal in early December.
“It was the best general rain in over a year for southern Queensland and the Downs, with anywhere upwards of 65 to 150mm, with most areas receiving 90 to 150mm through Roma, St George and Mitchell, out to Morven and down to border regions.
“It was so dry that the rain hasn’t created much runoff, but you couldn’t ask for better grass-growing rain. Any follow-up should start to get rivers and creeks flowing and fill on-farm water storages.
“Yardings halved on the rain, but the lack of southern competition saw the market for slaughter bullocks ease last week. Some big, heavy, well-finished Birdsville bullocks with plenty of weight that were making $5/kg a couple of weeks ago were softer at $4.80/kg.
“Outside of bullocks, anything else was much firmer. Some 250kg Santa steers at Winton made $7.15/kg and a big run of 200-280kg Beefmaster steers made $5.90-6/kg on-farm at Richmond. So, the rain has really lifted the Queensland store market.
“There is an order out for heavy flatback feeders at $5.50/kg at a western Downs feedlot, but like in CQ, there have been a lot of cattle sold. Due to the tight season, a lot of cattle that would be next year’s feeders have been sold out of southern Queensland as weaners, so there are likely to be gaps in the southern Queensland feeder job for a while to come.
“Numbers last Tuesday at Roma bounced compared to the previous week’s rain-restricted yarding to over 4,000 head, about half the numbers yarded before the rain, and sold to strong competition to be 10-30c/kg higher.” - Ashley Loveday, Livestock Sales Manager (Dalby)
Queensland saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 02/11/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 489 | 463 (+26) | 432 (+57) | 418 (+71) |
| Processor cow | 388 | 385 (+3) | 352 (+36) | 374 (+14) |
| Feeder steer | 543 | 504 (+39) | 464 (79) | 448 (+95) |
| Feeder heifer | 497 | 465 (+32) | 413 (+84) | 400 (+97) |
| EYCI (dw) | 1044 | 979 (+65) | 894 (+50) | 837 (+207) |
| Restocker steer | 581 | 587 (-6) | 503 (+78) | 469 (+112) |
| Restocker hiefer | 489 | 465 (+24) | 383 (+106) | 384 (+105) |
Source: MLA
“Conditions throughout most of northern New South Wales (NSW) have been tight for much of the year. Good rain of 100 to 150mm generally as far down as Tamworth and across to Coonabarabran will encourage restocking demand from backgrounders in the New England and northern Tablelands. Graziers in these areas have not had a chance to restock or bring home cattle that were sent for agistment earlier in the year.
“Like in areas to the north, don’t expect large numbers of suitable feeder or slaughter cattle to come out of northern NSW until after the New Year.
“In central NSW, at Dubbo last week numbers were back and prices were significantly higher. Feeder steers and heifers were up at least 20c/kg, with a lot of northern buyers coming in, with feeder steers topping out at $5.80/kg and heifers at $5.30/kg.
“On the smaller restocker cattle, there were a lot of buy orders and prices were up to 80c/kg dearer, with steers at $7.40/kg and heifers at $6.50/kg.
“Rainfall through central NSW was anywhere from 10 to 75mm, with varying impacts, with some trying to cut hay.
“Like in the south, feed quality is going backwards fast.
“At Wagga this week, feedlotters and processors were keen on backgrounder-type cattle as they try to get some cattle around them before the Christmas break. They pushed prices 5 to 10c/kg higher for feeders and 10 to 20c/kg on restocker cattle. Feeder steers were $5.50/kg and $5.10/kg for heifers, and lighter cattle were $6 to $6.60/kg.
“Heavy slaughter steers were in short supply and sold from $4.50 to $5.20/kg. A good yarding of heavy cows averaged $4.12/kg but sold as high as $4.50/kg, up 15c/kg. Buying was cautious for domestic trade slaughter steers at $5 to $6/kg.” - Lee Toohey, Head of Livestock Advisory (Dubbo)
NSW saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 02/11/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 475 | 480 (-5) | 456 (+19) | 449 (+26) |
| Processor cow | 408 | 407 (+1) | 381 (+27) | 397 (+11) |
| Feeder steer | 570 | 550 (+20) | 522 (+48) | 474 (+96) |
| Feeder heifer | 503 | 501 (+2) | 468 (+35) | 433 (+70) |
| EYCI (dw) | 1054 | 1023 (+31) | 943 (+111) | 861 (+193) |
| Restocker steer | 594 | 570 (+24) | 524 (+70) | 486 (+108) |
| Restocker heifer | 530 | 507 (+23) | 469 (+61) | 431 (+99) |
Source: MLA
“In South Australia, cattle continue to sell to firm competition as southern processors start to focus on local cattle as supplies of slaughter-weight cattle start to rise seasonally. “A solid yarding of local cattle passed through the Mount Gambier store sale last Friday, attracting a strong gallery of local restockers and good support from feedlotters. “Heavy Angus steers 450kg-plus sold from $5 to $5.40/kg. Lighter steers 300 to 400kg sold from $5.20 to $5.50/kg and those under 300kg sold from $6 to $6.30/kg. “Coloured cattle were generally 20 to 30c/kg behind the blacks. “Black heifers with good weight made 450 to 500c/kg, with lighter heifers making from 470c/kg to a touch over $5/kg.” - Scott Altschwager, State Livestock Manager, Southern Region (Millicent) SA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 02/11/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 482 | 477 (+5) | 476 (+6) | 467 (+15) |
| Processor cow | 417 | 407 (+10) | 403 (+14) | 399 (+18) |
| Feeder steer | 499 | 465 (+34) | 460 (+39) | 460 (+39) |
| Feeder heifer | 463 | 462 (+1) | 455 (+8) | 432 (+31) |
| Restocker Steer | 506 | 465 (+41) | 497 (+9) | 429 (+77) |
| Restocker heifer | 475 | 454 (+21) | 429 (+46) | 400 (+75) |
Source: MLA.
“Tassie had a nice weekend of rain, particularly in the north-east, east coast and southern areas, which have been missing out. They picked up 20 to 30mm, so they may be able to hang onto livestock now and avoid a sell-off if there is a bit of follow-up as forecast.
“On the cattle front, the processors are trying to pull prices back, but they are holding for now at $8.80 to $8.90/kg dressed weight (dw) for program yearlings. Cows are anywhere from $7.50 to $8/kg dw. There are still cattle coming over from the mainland to top up winter kills.
“Store cattle have strengthened 20 to 40c/kg in Tassie over the past month with the rain. Steers 400kg-plus are $5.10 to $5.20/kg, 300 to 400kg steers are $5.40 to $5.60/kg and lighter steers below 300kg are $6/kg.” - Gavin Coombe, State Livestock Manager, Tasmania
Tasmania saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 02/11/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy Steer | 414 | 457 (-43) | 455 (-31) | 440 (-26) |
| Processor cow | 382 | 335 (+47) | 340 (+42) | 359 (+23) |
Source: MLA.
“In Victoria, the areas that needed rain the most received the least. Casterton in the far south-west only got 10mm, but further east, most of the south-west received higher amounts, with 90mm around Geelong. There was generally up to 50mm through central Victoria and into the heart of the Riverina, with lesser amounts through the northern and western Riverina of around 10 to 20mm. Gippsland had 10 to 35mm.
“Livestock have been slow to come on through Victoria, with feed quality reducing over the past four to six weeks and weight gains stalling.” - Nick Gray, State Livestock Manager Victoria/Riverina
Victoria saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 02/11/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 493 | 488 (+5) | 481 (+13) | 460 (+33) |
| Processor cow | 419 | 413 (+6) | 405 (+14) | 396 (+23) |
| Feeder steer | 551 | 488 (+63) | 475 (+76) | 471 (+80) |
| Feeder heifer | 465 | 457 (+8) | 449 (+16) | 437 (+32) |
| EYCI (dw) | 938 | 906 (+32) | 882 (+56) | 856 (+82) |
| Restocker steer | 493 | 505 (-12) | 461 (+32) | 442 (+51) |
| Restocker heifer | 445 | 456 (-11) | 423 (+22) | 404 (+41) |
Source:MLA
“In Western Australia (WA), nothing’s changed too much in the last week. Prices are still very strong. Lighter steers under 300kg have cracked over $6/kg. A bit more hay is being baled up and put away, so graziers are starting to buy some of those lighter cattle again.
“Weaner sales will start up again next week, so the whole process will start over again.
“In WA, southern areas have received a bit of rain, with more predicted for the end of this week. It’s holding up the baling of the hay that’s cut and on the ground, but keeping everything green. We are getting to the tail-end of our older cattle from down south, with some heavy yearling steers held over from last year coming through and pregnancy-tested empty heifers starting to hit the market. The feedlotters have put their hand up to take a few more cattle in and supermarkets are buying up for their certified grass-fed programs, which is helping to keep the market buoyant.
“Out in the pastoral country, north-east of Perth, towards Meekatharra in the Murchison or WA mid-west, the rain has cut roads, stopping trucks getting in and moving cattle down to Perth. This has assisted the WA market because processors are busy working through quite a reasonable turnoff from the south-west, where some graziers have run out of water or feed.” - Michael Longford, Livestock Sales Manager, Western Australia (Bunbury)
WA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw | ||||
| 02/11/26 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year |
| Heavy steer | 393 | 394 (-1) | 413 (-20) | 367 (+26) |
| Processor cow | 326 | 332 (-6) | 329 (-3) | 294 (+32) |
| Feeder steer | 477 | 451 (+26) | 491 (-14) | 418 (+59) |
| Feeder heifer | 438 | 389 (+49) | 442 (-4) | 370 (+68) |
| WYCI (dw) | 996 | 925 (+71) | 923 (+73) | 762 (+234) |
| Restoker hiefer | 399 | 241 (+158) | 306 (+93) | 371 (+28) |
Source: MLA.
*Disclaimer – important, please read:
The information contained in this article is given for general information purposes only, current at the time of first publication, and does not constitute professional advice. The article has been independently created by a human author using some degree of creativity through consultation with various third-party sources. Third party information has been sourced from means which Elders consider to be reliable. However, Elders has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy. Links or references to third party sources are provided for convenience only and do not constitute endorsement of material by third parties or any associated product or service offering. While Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in preparation of this article, many factors including environmental/seasonal factors and market conditions can impact its accuracy and currency. The information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and, to the extent permitted by law, Elders disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising out of any reliance upon the information contained in this article. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice specific to your circumstances relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.