06 OCT 2025

Latest cattle market update

Read the latest insights and information on the Australian cattle market for October 2025*.

At a glance

  • Solid beef export demand has driven a sharp lift in cattle prices across the entire complex during the past couple of months
  • Lower turnoff from US feedlots through summer and seasonally weaker lean beef availability has been central to higher beef prices and increased demand for Australian beef in global markets
  • Strong local processing margins have encouraged southern processors to compete in northern markets to maintain kills, ensuring strong competition for local cattle
  • Q4 will see some rebound in US beef supply as US feedlots increase turnoff, pressuring US wholesale beef prices and placing some pressure on imported beef values
  • Local slaughter cattle prices should stabilise into year’s end with a pickup in northern turnoff as temperatures warm and as buying schedules wind down for the mid-December seasonal shutdown in the northern processing industry
  • Feedlot buying has been brisk given solid feeding margins and the prospect of further falls in grain prices leading into harvest
  • The past month has seen increased restocker activity in the south on limited numbers, however, restocker demand is now waning as seasonal conditions tighten again across the South.

US and Chinese demand lift Australian beef and cattle values

It has been an exciting few months in Australian cattle and beef markets. Australian cattle values have risen on the back of a surging US market and increased demand for Australian beef from China.

Over the northern hemisphere summer, US lotfeeders did a good job of withholding cattle from the market to push US wholesale beef prices to record levels. Marketings out of US feedlots in July and August were down 6 per cent (pc) and 14pc respectively.

On top of this, seasonally lower US cow slaughter, weak supplies from NZ and the introduction of a prohibitive US tariff on Brazilian beef imports in August has seen a sharp tightening in supplies of lean manufacturing beef in the US, creating increased demand for Australian lean beef.

In China, Australian beef has virtually replaced US supply because of the US/China trade dispute. US shipments to China shrunk to just $8.1 million in July and $9.5 million in August, compared to $118 million and $125 million in 2024, while Australian shipments have risen from an average of $140 million per month over the past 2 years to $221 million in July and $226 million in August.

Strong export demand for Australian beef has supported local processing margins and has seen southern processors active in northern markets, creating strong competition for slaughter stock. Falling grain prices and improving feeding margins have supported feeder prices while restocker values have held due to tight supply despite southern seasonal conditions remaining mixed.

Higher US beef production in Q4 to pressure global beef values

What can we expect into year’s end? Firstly, US feedlots have built a large inventory of market ready cattle owing to the slow marketing pace during summer. US cattle on feed +180 days are nearly 60 per cent higher than last year and 8 per cent more than the previous record high in August 2020. As US feedlots seek to become more current, US feedlot turnoff will increase in Q4.

Lower US wholesale beef prices (which are trading below US grinding beef values) will place some pressure on imported cut values and encourage the use of sub-primals (knuckles, round, flats) in the grinding mix to help alleviate the shortage of lean beef. Steiner is reporting that urgency to source lean imported beef supply (both cuts and trimmings) has calmed somewhat in the past week as lower US wholesale beef values drag down prices across the entire US beef complex.

Normally, Q4 sees US domestic lean beef values ease seasonally as more cows enter the slaughter mix ahead of winter. While US beef cow slaughter is expected to remain light, the same cannot be said for US dairy cow slaughter. The August US dairy cow inventory was pegged at the highest level in more than three decades and the dairy cow cull rate is therefore likely to increase in Q4.

So far, US domestic lean beef prices have not eased to the extent seasonal patterns would suggest. However, buyers are in no rush to chase product for now with some hope that US tariff policy with Brazil may shift and increase imported lean beef supply in Q1 2026.

With international beef prices looking to have peaked for now, as US production increases into year’s end, the direction of Australian cattle prices will become more sensitive to changes in local supply. Northern turnoff is starting to build as the final run of nth NSW/Queensland cattle hit the market as temperatures warm, while in the south, there could be another early turnoff unless seasonal conditions improve during October. At this stage, markets are holding up well with slaughter schedules booked just two weeks out, from the 6 to 8 weeks they have been for most of this year. Buying should start winding down in mid-November as feedlots and processors start to prepare for the seasonal slowdown.

But while we are anticipating a lift in US fed beef production as US feedlots offload market ready cattle into the end of the year, US beef production will resume easing in H1 2026. US cattle placements have lagged below year ago levels for most of 2025 as US cattlemen withhold heifers to begin herd rebuilding and due to the US ban on Mexican feeder cattle (screwworm). For the year to July, US feeder cattle imports from Mexico have been a little over 200,000 head vs 850,000 head in the same period in 2024. Eventually, lower placements into US feedlots will lead to a sustained downtrend in US beef production most likely sometime in Q1 2026. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is currently expecting H1 2026 US beef production to be 2.5 percent lower than 2025 and 5 per cent lower than 2024.

Record US prices support heavy steer values

Sharply lower US fed beef slaughter and a pickup in Chinese demand for Australian beef has increased demand for heavy steers the past 6 weeks. Higher US fed beef prices supported stronger values for imported lean beef cuts from Australia (which now comprise around 40pc of Australia’s total exports to the US) and, in turn, heavy steer values.

Strong US beef demand and weaker US beef supply have been key drivers of higher beef values over the past year. This may be tested over the next few months if US fed beef turnoff increases and as the US economy slows, potentially leading to lower levels of US consumer spending on beef.

The US choice cut-out is already under pressure, having fallen from a peak of around US$420/cwt in August to be trading just above US$370/cwt and will be further under pressure if lot feeders ramp up marketings over the next few months in a bid to get current. US cattle slaughter for the week ended 14 September lifted to 573,000 head, the highest since June.

Lower US beef wholesale values from increased US feedlot turnoff will put pressure on the value of Australian beef cuts exported to the US and likely see demand for Australian beef into the US ease into year’s end.

Higher US feedlot turnoff to quell prices in Q4

An increase in US feedlot turnoff during Q4 will place some downward pressure on the value of Australian beef cuts exported to the US and may curb prices for heavy steers into year’s end as the final flush of northern cattle hit markets and as buying programs winds down ahead of the shutdown of the northern processing industry in mid-December.

This chart shows the c/kg lw national saleyard indicator price for heavy steers in 2024, 2025 and the 5-year average. Source: MLA. This chart shows the c/kg lw national saleyard indicator price for heavy steers in 2024, 2025 & the 5yr average. Source: MLA.

Cows hold at higher levels on US lean beef demand

Australian cow prices firmed vis-à-vis other cattle categories in the past month with a tightening in local cow slaughter, and as southern cow slaughter specialists compete hard with northern processors to maintain kill rates. Trends in cow prices relative to heavy steers reflect pricing trends in the US beef market where lean manufacturing beef prices have firmed vis-à-vis grainfed beef prices. The other trend of note in local cow markets is that processors have become less discerning about quality with heavy cow premiums narrowing compared to secondary classes. But the preference is still for heavy cows, driven by southern buying and transport economies.

Expect cow prices to flatten into year’s end as US lean beef prices stabilise with more US lean beef cuts moving into the grinding mix and as US domestic lean supplies increase with a lift in dairy cow slaughter ahead of winter.

The key risk to current pricing levels would be an abrupt turnaround in US tariff policy on Brazilian beef imports which would increase availability of imported lean product in the US.

Cow prices to stabilise

Greater availability of cheap US sub-primal lean cuts (as US feedlots increase turnoff of front-loaded inventories) and a seasonal lift in Q4 US dairy cow slaughter may temper US imported lean manufacturing beef prices into year’s end, cooling Australian processing demand for cows.  

This chart shows the c/kg lw national saleyard indicator price for cows 2024, 2025 & the 5yr average. Source: MLA.

Feeder prices stabilise as final run of northern cattle hit market

In the feedlot sector, buying has been brisk as feedlots seek to fill pen space to maximise capacity given solid feeding margins and the prospect of further falls in grain prices leading into harvest. Grain fed 100-day forward contract prices for flatback steers, have adjusted higher to reflect the lift feeder cattle values with prices for December now being quoted at $8.30 to $8.50c/kg dw for December (up from $7.50 to 7.80c/kg lw in July/August).

Price premiums for Angus feeder steers above flatbacks have peaked (at $1/kg lw in July/August) and are now contracting (to 50c/kg lw) as Angus feeders stabilise at $5.40/kg lw. There is an increase in availability as Angus cattle moved from southern areas to northern NSW and southern Queensland for backgrounding early in the year start to come off fodder crops and hit the market.

Lot feeders have also switched their cattle on feed mix to include a greater proportion of non-Angus feeder cattle classes ie. AngusX $5.20c/kg lw, BritishX $5/kg lw and Flatbacks $4.90c/kg lw and heifers $4.50c/kg lw which has seen prices for these categories appreciate over the past couple of months. Feeder cattle availability should improve as northern supply ramps up seasonally (northern NSW/Queensland heat) in the next few weeks. This may help to steady the feeder market with buying also slowing as end of year feedlot buying programs are wrapped up.

This chart shows c/kg lw national saleyard indicator price for feeder steers in 2024, 2025 & the 5yr average. Source: MLA.

Final run of northern supply

Feeder cattle availability should improve as northern supply ramps seasonally (Queensland heat) in the next few weeks.

This will help to stabilise feeder cattle values as buying slows as end of year feedlot buying programs are wrapped up.

Restocker activity hesitant as higher prices and uncertain seasonal conditions slow appetite

The past month has seen increased restocker activity in the south with any grass animal that's not a heavyweight and has shape and breeding, $6/kg lw plus and over $7/kg lw for light weaner cattle 150 to 160kgs on limited numbers.

With the recent tightening in the season, this market looks susceptible to an increase in supply as the southern season is again in trouble with pastures lagging, reflecting a lack of moisture. Moisture probes indicate 30pc available soil moisture with pastures drawing around 10pc a week. Another 3 weeks of dry and warm weather will see pasture growth flag significantly.

Concern over seasonal conditions, a lack of cash flow and the high cost of replacement cattle will dim southern restocker demand, unless October weather turns for the better.

Southern season creates uncertainty

With the recent tightening in the season, this market looks susceptible to an increase in supply and a pullback in demand as the southern season is again in trouble in many areas with pastures lagging reflecting the lack of moisture.

This chart shows c/kg lw national saleyard indicator price for restocker steers in 2024, 2025 & the 5yr average. Source: MLA.

Heifer discount starts to narrow

Heifer discounts have narrowed reflecting a cautious lift in restocker buying and increased feedlot demand as the feedlot sector manage feeder cattle entry costs.

The heifer discount over the last two months has narrowed to its lowest level in 18 months as some southern buyers look to restock. The season will dictate whether there is any further narrowing in this discount. A full rebuild would see heifer values move closer in price to steers as restockers bid them away from processors and feedlots, however, we are a long way from that season wise, in many areas across the south.

This chart shows the premium for feeder and restocker steers vs heifers in c/kg lw. Source: MLA. This chart shows the premium for feeder and restocker steers vs heifers in c/kg lw. Source: MLA.

Final run of northern supply

The tightening in spring seasonal conditions has seen the trend of narrowing heifer discounts pause.

As cattle market prospects have improved through the year, the heifer discount over the last two months has narrowed to its lowest level in 18 months, about half the levels of early 2024.

From the rails

Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.

“There are a lot of crops that are just about ready to start coming off in the next 2to3 weeks. Very good crops right out past Roma as good as you'll see. So hopefully, the crop will come off without problems and before the storms start.

Cattle numbers through the yards are increasing through QLD with 9,000-11,000 regularly at Roma and Dalby at 6,000-8,000 head.

Prices are holding up very well with any fluctuations mainly just quality driven which means, as far as Queensland goes, a higher proportion of Brahman content cattle in yards.

For example, at Blackall there were some heifers out of the NT, drought master/Santa Cross heifers, 230to250 kgs, made only $2.30to2.50/kg lw, purely quality driven.

“As far as the feedlot side of things goes, crossbreds $4.80to4.85/kg lw on the Downs and southern feedlots buying out of Blackhall at $4.90/kg lw for trucking down through western Queensland into NSW/SouthAustralia.

“Angus feeders holding at $5.30to5.40/kg lw and you can lock that prices in for an end of October delivery.

“We are at that in-between period in Queensland where the winter season has run out of puff, and we are waiting for summer storms to get things going again. Most of Queensland though still has plenty of dry feed, although there are still some very dry spots around Wandoan and Taroom. There is enough subsoil moisture still available that one decent round of widespread storms will get things going again.

“The slaughter cattle market is still holding with processor bookings now down to 2 weeks out from 6to8 weeks. Plenty of cattle moving we had a good start to the spring, but we need some more rain to keep things going. Southern works are keeping plenty of pressure on.

“We are on $6.90 to 7/kg dw for cows direct to works across Central Queensland and $7.50 to 7.60/kg dw on four-tooth bullocks. Weaners are starting to follow the feeder job upwards. You can buy any decent weaners under about $5 to 5.20/kg lw and they're limited in numbers with all the big weaner sales that run from May to August mostly finished for the year, and what’s available now are mainly odd lots.” – Ashley Loveday, Livestock Sales Manager, Queensland.

QLD saleyard market indicators c/kg lw

 

1/10/25

+/- week

+/- month

+/- year

Heavy steer

412

410 (+2)

386 (+26)

330 (+82)

Processor cow

352

359 (-7)

357 (-5)

242 (+110)

Feeder steer

447

453 (-6)

446 (-1)

342 (+105)

Restocker steer

459

469 (-10)

486 (-27)

360 (+99)

Restocker heifer

384

379 (+5)

409 (-25)

260 (+124)

Source: MLA

“Seems like everything is ticking along ok, supplies look to be gradually improving as the heat encourages some turnoff. Processor demand was a little mixed as Wagga this week, influenced by the short week next week. Expecting cattle prices to taper into years end as end of year feedlot buying winds up and as Queensland numbers rise. Currently fluctuations are tending to be quality and numbers related rather than any change in the price trends. Feeder cattle Blacks $5.30 to 5.40/kg lw, British X $5.20c/kg lw, and coloureds $5 to 5.20/kg lw. Slaughter cattle values direct to works have firmed in-line with paddock sales and yards, heavy steers $8.50/kg dw and cows $7.80/kg dw.

“Grass yearling program cattle $9 to 9.50/kg dw and 100-day grainfed contract cattle $8.50/kg dw for December with $50-1/kg premiums for Angus. Weaners solid around $6 to 7/kg lw with heifers 40 to 70c/kg lw discount to steers.”

NSW saleyard market indicators c/kg lw

 

1/10/25

+/- week

+/- month

+/- year

Heavy steer

462

476 (-14)

459 (+3)

342 (+120)

Processor cow

392

399 (-7)

374 (+18)

294 (+98)

Feeder steer

509

502 (+7)

511 (-2)

366 (+143)

Restocker steer

521

515 (+7)

495 (+26)

363 (+158)

Restocker heifer

446

461 (-16)

416 (+30)

304 (+142)

Source: MLA

“The cattle side of it is just going along nicely. Cows $8.40 to 8.50/kg dw and your grassfed program cattle $9.20 to 9.30/kg dw.

“Feeder cattle just seem to be strongly competed on wherever they go they are better than $5/kg lw for coloureds and $5.40/kg lw for blacks with EU cattle above this around $5.50/kg lw.

“On the store cattle job if you've got a grass animal that's not a heavyweight its $6/kg plus and over $7/kg for your little blow away cattle.

“Bit of wind around for us last week, sucked a bit of moisture out of the country. Crops look brilliant after being fed up nicely. Grass is probably just a little bit less than fantastic, just ticking along. You can see some little fluffy grass starting to brown off after last week's wind. But down south into the south-east, they're just starting to really appreciate what this Spring is starting to look like.

“But as you go north into the Mallee, it is getting a little bit desperate, and it looks like being another long hard summer for our Riverland and Mallee graziers.” – Laryn Gogel, Livestock Sales Manager, South Australia.

SA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw

 

1/10/25

+/- week

+/- month

+/- year

Heavy steer

496

503 (-7)

459 (+37)

355 (+141)

Processor cow

409

416 (-7)

382 (+27)

295 (+114)

Feeder steer

494

463 (+31)

441 (+53)

343 (+151)

Restocker steer

463

485 (-22)

373 (+90)

300 (+163)

Restocker heifer

456

408 (+48)

300 (+156)

265 (+191)

Source: MLA.

“We have had a bit of everything in September, plenty of rain, plenty of wind, plenty of cool weather, bit of snow, bit of growth and a bit of sun, which has set up the northern half of the state quite well for spring.

“Southern half of Tassie is still ordinary, they had 20-30mm over the last month, but prior to that, virtually nothing. So, they are looking down the barrel of an ordinary spring/summer.

“The local cattle job is going along nicely. The top end is sitting around $8.70/kg dw, but I'm hearing reports out of the mainland that those good program yearlings are anywhere up to $9.70/kg dw. Mainland agents came across this last week and pulled probably 600 to 700 cattle out of the state this week purely because obviously they're getting a fair bit more at the other end than what our local processors are getting.

“Last Tuesday we held our blue-ribbon spring sale. It was an Elders standalone feature sale with nearly 1000 good cattle that ticked all the boxes. They sold very well, 350kg type steers and mid weights $4.80 to 5.40/kg lw with the lighter end $5.20 to 5.90/kg with some pushing the mid $6/kg lw.

“On heifers, heavier types on the same evening heavies and medium weights $4.50 to $5.10/kg lw, the lighter end $4.50 to 5.40/kg lw. So, it was a pretty good week over here in the auction system. We had nearly 3000 cattle on AuctionsPlus or at Powranna on Thursday and everything found a home easy enough, which is pleasing to see plenty of confidence in the job.

“We have another mixed weather week coming up, light winter weather really with some wind and rain.” – Gavin Coombe, State Livestock Manager, Tasmania.

TAS saleyard market indicators c/kg lw

 

1/10/25

+/- week

+/- month

+/- year

Heavy steer

408

440 (-32)

389 (+19)

337 (+71)

Processor cow

345

362 (-17)

339 (+6)

266 (+79)

Source: MLA.

Victoria/Riverina

“In the South of my patch now, growing season has kicked in and things are bouncing away. So, we are driving around thinking we have probably got a bit more feed than we thought, so that's a positive and a bit of a mindset that we haven't had for a while.

“Riverina is different. It's right on a knife edge and can still go either way. The way it’s shaping up it looks like going against us, particularly the western Riverina. The eastern Riverina is not too bad.

“We're right on the cusp of a rebuild phase in western Vic, but no one's really putting their hand up at the minute. It might be because of finances but also uncertainty about the season.” – Nick Gray, State Livestock Manager, Victoria/Riverina.

VIC saleyard market indicators c/kg lw

 

1/10/25

+/- week

+/- month

+/- year

Heavy steer

463

457 (+6)

474 (-11)

356 (+107)

Processor cow

406

413 (-7)

394 (+12)

299 (+107)

Feeder steer

457

479 (-22)

469 (-12)

333 (+124)

Restocker steer

469

479 (-10)

420 (+49)

323 (+146)

Restocker heifer

428

405 (+23)

404 (+24)

280 (+148)

Source:MLA

“In the West, temperatures are starting to get up there in the mid-20s, which has been handy because we need some heat and a bit of dry weather to get the grass growing.

“The grass-fed cattle job over here is slowly starting up and the supermarkets have got prices out at $7.90 to 8/kg dw. If you're a certified grass, they've got prices at $8.20/kg dw, cows haven't moved too much, although in the yards they are making $3.60/kg lw or the equivalent of $6.20/kg dw on the hook.

“On the lighter cattle, it's good to see the light steers at 250 to 320kgs crack over the $5/kg lw mark they have gone from $5/kg lw to $5.25/kg lw.

“The heavier feeder type steers 350 to 450kgs they are probably most sought after with support from eastern states buyers and selling consistently from $4.50 to 4.90/kg lw.

“On the heifer side of things, the light little heifers that 250 to 320kgs are around $3.80 to $4.15/kg lw. The heavier heifers, like the steers are most in demand with heifers 350 to 450kgs, anywhere from $$3.80 to 4.30/kg lw.

“The yards are going well, putting pricing pressure on the processors. We're really going to start cranking up on the AuctionsPlus at Mount Barker saleyards in anticipation of lift in eastern states buying.” – Michael Longford, Livestock Sales Manager, WA.

WA saleyard market indicators c/kg lw

 

1/10/25

+/- week

+/- month

+/- year

Heavy steer

424

417 (+7)

346 (+78)

272 (+152)

Processor cow

334

347 (-13)

303 (+31)

205 (+129)

Feeder steer

459

456 (+3)

419 (+40)

340 (+119)

Restocker steer

437

440 (-3)

368 (+69)

271 (+166)

Restocker heifer

295

364 (-69)

338 (-43)

223 (+72)

Source: MLA.

*Disclaimer – important, please read:

The information contained in this article is given for general information purposes only, current at the time of first publication, and does not constitute professional advice.  The article has been independently created by a human author using some degree of creativity through consultation with various third-party sources.  Third party information has been sourced from means which Elders consider to be reliable.  However, Elders has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy.  Links or references to third party sources are provided for convenience only and do not constitute endorsement of material by third parties or any associated product or service offering.  While Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in preparation of this article, many factors including environmental/seasonal factors and market conditions can impact its accuracy and currency.  The information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and, to the extent permitted by law, Elders disclaim liability for any loss or damage arising out of any reliance upon the information contained in this article.  If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice specific to your circumstances relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.