Sheepmeat values eased during September as the spring flush of lambs finally hit the market and as producers across the Southern states moved to offload sheep as seasonal conditions continued to deteriorate.
Sheep values have fallen around 22 percent during September, while losses across the lamb complex have been around 5 to 10 per cent with light lambs the hardest hit and restocker lambs fairing best. Trade and heavy lambs were down by 7 to 8 percent.
Dragging the sheepmeat complex lower has been a dramatic lift in the sheep kill. Since the start of August sheep slaughter is up 15 per cent on last year’s high kill and up 46 per cent on the 5 year average.
Southern producers have lost total confidence in the season and are making deep cuts to their breeding flocks which will create a hole in supplies somewhere down the line. Hopefully we are through most of the forced turn-off and slaughter will start to ease as we head into October.
According to Damien Webb, Elders State SA Livestock Manager, “by the end of October there won’t be too much left to sell in the north and the southeast will start to move on their lambs. Given its not waterlogged there this year, they are getting some feed value, but it will need to keep raining to carry them through spring.”
This chart shows the weekly sheep slaughter. Source: National Livestock Reporting Service.
The sheep sell-off has been brutal and hopefully we are through the worst. Once sheep slaughter begins to ease back to normal it will allow the whole sheepmeat complex to recover.
The lamb kill has started to ease below last year’s levels which should allow prices to recover once sheep slaughter rates pull-back.
This chart shows the weekly lamb slaughter. Source: National Livestock Reporting Service.
Lamb slaughter has behaved like we thought it would and has fallen below last year and is heading towards the 5-year average. Once the spring flush is through, we may see slaughter levels fall away further with many lambs needing to be supplementary fed to get to trade and export slaughter weights.
Lamb pricing
Heavy lambs have been unable to avoid the fall-out from the large sheep slaughter and have fallen around 8 percent in September. We are expecting lamb availability to be down on last year right throughout the season and this should allow prices to recover as we head deeper into spring.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for heavy lambs. Source: MLA.
As we move further into spring, we expect supplies of well finished heavy lambs to tighten which should allow prices to recover. There are few lambs of any weight in western Victoria and South Australia with those areas experiencing a green drought.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for trade lambs. Source: MLA
There won’t be an abundance of supply of good trade lambs this season with lambing percentages well down across the southern states. These prices will track heavy lamb values and start to improve as we head further into spring.
According to Damien Webb, State SA Livestock Manager, “light lambs are hard to move. For anything 35kg or better, there is a bit of demand from feeders and processors. Even those have come back from $4 per kg to the mid-$3s per kg for crossbred, merino lambs back under $3 per kg.
“With the Riverina and most of NSW receiving good early spring rain, there should soon be some feed-on interest in lambs. Feed barley is being quoted at $265 per t ex-farm Riverina which given the recent fall in lambs and the expectation of a recovery in prices later in the season should encourage some feed-on interest.”
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for light lambs. Source: MLA.
In contrast to heavy export and trade lambs it seems that supplies of lighter lambs are plentiful with many producers not having the feed reserves to get them to higher weights.
Light lambs are also heavily dependent on the Middle East trade and rising tensions there may cause some demand issues for the MK bag trade that has been strong for most of the year.
Restocker lamb values have held up surprisingly well, no doubt supported by interest from graziers in NSW. Once sheep slaughter eases off a bit, the lamb complex will recover providing further incentive for producers with feed to be active on these lambs. Increased demand is thought to be coming from farmers putting stock on failed crops or crops that have been cut for hay or silage.
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for restocker lambs. Source: MLA
Demand from producers looking to out lambs onto failed crops or crops being cut for hay or silage is supporting store lamb values.
Mutton pricing
The lack of early spring rain has seen producers move early to make cuts to sheep flocks across the east coast. NSW processors look to be sourcing sheep from Victoria and SA as heavy NSW kills seem to be driving the increase in overall slaughter. The discounts to prices in NSW should help put a floor in sheep prices moving forward.
China has been a more active buyer of mutton taking almost the entire increase in mutton exports from the recent heavy kills.
Damien Webb, State SA Livestock Manager, said “at Jamestown sheep sale last week, only about six pens cracked $100 per head with most hoggets $70 to $90 per head. We are hoping that there will be a bit more demand at our next ewe sale in the third week of October, only for the fact that everyone is here because of how cheap they are compared to eastern states.”
This chart shows the national saleyard indicator price for mutton sheep. Source: MLA.
Mutton prices have followed a similar trend to last year as early Spring conditions have failed.
In contrast to last year though NSW conditions are much better and restocker interest should put a floor on sheep prices.
Increased buying from producers looking to make use of failed crops and stubble from crops cuts for hay and silage should assist prices to recover as turnoff slows.
From the rails
“Sheep are under pressure. They have been booking in sheep because of the dry and that has put pressure on the lamb job. But look, it’s not too bad and there’s probably a bit of upside if we are able to jag some more rain before it turns hot.” - Peter Homann, National Livestock Manager
| Australian sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 3 October 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 792 | 774 (+28) | 842 (-50) | 493 (+299) |
| Trade | 786 | 772 (+14) | 827 (-41) | 478 (+308) |
| Light | 646 | 601 (+45) | 675 (-29) | 378 (+268) |
| Restocker | 683 | 604 (+79) | 577 (+116) | 310 (+373) |
| Mutton | 286 | 289 (-3) | 369 (-83) | 170 (+116) |
The table shows Australian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 3 October 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
“Frosting at Ariah Park, west of Olympic Way, fair bit of canola being cut, and I saw mowers in the fields over the weekend.
“Good for those wanting to finish stock - there will be plenty of supplementary feed available. And even though there’s a bit of frosting there will still be plenty of grain with feed barley quoted $265 per t ex farm Riverina. So good opportunity for those that want to finish stock.” - Rob Inglis, Livestock Production Manager, Victoria/Riverina
| NSW sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 3 October 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 790 | 772 (+18) | 850 (-60) | 504 (+286) |
| Trade | 793 | 771 (+12) | 841 (-48) | 488 (+305) |
| Light | 682 | 660 (+12) | 736 (-54) | 382 (+300) |
| Restocker | 781 | 663 (+118) | 725 (+56) | 324 (+457) |
| Mutton | 288 | 308 (-20) | 400 (-112) | 213 (+75) |
The table shows New South Wales sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 3 October 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
| Victorian sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 3 October 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 803 | 784 (+19) | 812 (-9) | 486 (+317) |
| Trade | 77s | 799 (+24) | 808 (-33) | 474 (+301) |
| Light | 638 | 596 (+42) | 619 (+19) | 395 (+243) |
| Restocker | 669 | 615 (+54) | 528 (+141) | 378 (+291) |
| Mutton | 307 | 274 (+33) | 340 (-33) | 152 (+135) |
The table shows Victorian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 3 October 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
“We’re just in sell-off mode here. Minimal rain over the weekend, maybe 4 to 12mm depending on where you are. Comparisons to the 1982 and 1967 drought. A client of mine at Burra has had less rain than he did in 1967.
“There will be some crop on the Yorke Peninsula, but there’s plenty of crop in the mid north that won’t reap. We are hoping that we might get a bit of rain to help the crop bulk out so it will provide a bit of stockfeed. We are looking to interstate to sell light lambs because there’s just no feed here.” - Damien Webb, State Livestock Manager, SA
| SA sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 3 October 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Heavy | 779 | 704 (+75) | 799 (-20) | 443 (+336) |
| Trade | 770 | 760 (+10) | 756 (+14) | 462 (+308) |
| Light | 614 | 514 (+100) | 650 (-36) | 351 (+263) |
| Restocker | 527 | 456 (+71) | 489 (+38) | 214 (+313) |
| Mutton | 245 | 237 (+8) | 287 (-42) | 87 (+158) |
The table shows South Australian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 3 October 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
| WA sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 3 October 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Trade | 623 | 589 (+34) | 659 (-36) | 379 (+244) |
| Light | 483 | 449 (+34) | 547 (-64) | 286 (+197) |
| Restocker | 446 | 350 (+96) | 461 (-15) | 169 (+277) |
| Mutton | 221 | 233 (-12) | 268 (-47) | 93 (+128) |
The table shows Western Australian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 3 October 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
“The lamb and sheep job has been tracking steady over the course of the month peaking at $8.20 per kg and back to $7.80 per kg for lambs and mutton peaking at $3.50 per kg earlier in September and settling at $3 per kg. Looking forward to a solid spring across the state with most areas in pretty good shape for the coming fodder season.” - Gavin Coombe, State Livestock Manager, Tasmania
| Tasmania sheepmeat saleyard indicators | ||||
| 3 October 24 | +/- week | +/- month | +/- year | |
| Lambs | ||||
| Trade | 710 | 742 (-32) | 793 (-83) | 391 (+319) |
| Light | 607 | 627 (-20) | 672 (-65) | 268 (+339) |
| Restocker | 683 | 604 (+79) | 577 (+106) | 310 (+373) |
| Mutton | 249 | 238 (+11) | 344 (-95) | 70 (+179) |
The table shows Tasmanian sheepmeat saleyard indicators as at 3 October 2024 and comparison to last week, month and year . Source: MLA
Sources: Price data reproduced courtesy of Meat & Livestock Australia Limited.
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