Cropping update - September 2024

“The crop conditions across NSW have changed due to several frost events, the severity of which is difficult to assess at this stage. If current conditions persist (dry with frosty mornings) we will continue to see a reduction in the percentage of crops rated good to fair (average to above average) and an increase in crops rated poor (below average). Recent falls in crop conditions came on the back of a week of cold frost mornings below -3 degrees (with some reading as low as -5.5 degrees and below for 8 hours) in the Central Tablelands and Central West. The Northern Tablelands have also seen a reduced outcome due to environmental stress. Most regions require a further rainfall event to assist the crops heading into the important month of October where we are likely to see crop conditions become very dynamic.

“Some crops are already being cut for hay through Canowindra, Young and Cowra due to the uncertainty of grain yields (due to first) and the high price of hay on the back of increased hay demand out of the southern states. These were very heavy crops, but a lack of moisture has seen the season pinch off creating some uncertainty over yield potential.”- Adam Little, Elders State Technical Services Manager, NSW.

Below is a summary of the September crop condition report completed by Elders district agronomists for New South Wales, showing percentage of crop rated either very poor, poor etc and comparing the August rating. 

Definitions of crop conditions

• Very poor - Extreme degree of loss to yield potential, complete or near crop failure. Pastures provide very little or no feed considering the time of year. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition.

• Poor - Heavy degree of loss to yield potential which can be caused by excess soil moisture, drought, disease, etc. Pastures are providing only marginal feed for the current time of year. Some supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition.

• Fair - Less than normal crop condition. Yield loss is a possibility, but the extent is unknown. Pastures are providing generally adequate feed but still less than normal for the time of year.

• Good - Yield prospects are normal. Moisture levels are adequate and disease, insect damage, and weed pressures are minor. Pastures are providing adequate feed supplies for the current time of year.

• Excellent - Yield prospects are above normal. Crops are experiencing little or no stress. Disease, insect damage, and weed pressures are insignificant. Pastures are supplying feed above what is normally expected at the current time of year.

“There have been severe and widespread frost events in SA this last week with -4 degrees reported at Cummins and Yorke Peninsula, Mid-North and Riverland. Genetics stress test for drought genes is great to see in an experiment, but the rainfall gods look to be using the whole of SA as a test. The growers who had something to harvest in August may not have anything after these frost events this last few weeks.”- Lyndon May, Elders State Technical Services Manager SA

Below is a summary of the September crop condition report completed by Elders district agronomists for South Australia, showing percentage of crop rated either very poor, poor etc and comparing the August rating. 

Northern Wheatbelt – with a very wet late start, crop establishment has been poor. There are estimations that only half the canola went in, some was substituted with wheat.

North-East – similar to the north, with June and July providing good rain. The end of the season has been dramatic with many crops being pushed to a finish.

Avon Midland – this area has had a very good run of conditions which has been favourable for crops. Fungicides have been applied to many crops, with diseases such as Sclerotinia causing many issues. Diamondback moth (DBM) has been a late season pest in many crops which is of concern to many growers.

Eastern – these areas didn’t receive the larger volume of rain earlier, still looking okay but the drying conditions will limit the amount of grain fill in the spring

South-East – this area missed out on much of the rain in the north, while crops were established the yield potential of these is considerably lower than many reports, late season pests have continued with DBM and late season Powdery Mildew in wheat.

Great Southern – many of these areas had a dry start which only caught up in rainfall in late August. While crops are looking okay, they are on limited stored moisture which will play out over the spring as large canopies draw this moisture down.

South Coast – a drier season has served this area well as conditions are commonly too wet. Crops are even, however lacking some of the biomass that has commonly been observed. Spring will need to kind for these crops to finish.

Hay has already begun in many areas as reserves for fodder is replenished. Most crops that are designated for hay will be taken to grain as this is still the preferred marketing opportunity for these growers. We haven’t seen any significant frost events to date, higher temperatures is more of a concern over cold.- Bill Moore, Elders State Technical Services Manager, WA.

“Hay conversations building traction by the day but not quite at that point. Partially also because some crops won’t have high enough hay yield to be worthwhile. Frost events over the last three days look to have cooked a significant chunk of our lentils so it will be an interesting 10 to 14 days from here.”- Pat Conlon, Elders agronomist, Swan Hill.

“Crop ratings have plummeted. Crops have been surviving on sub soil moisture from summer rain and have only received around 90 mm during the growing season. The rain forecast in the next week will determine the fate of many crops. Seems like rain is always 10 days away but never arrives.”- Anton Mannes, Elders senior agronomist, Bendigo. 

“We are going to wait to see whether it rains from the system forecast before deciding whether to cut crops for hay. It just hasn’t rained, and crop conditions have deteriorated sharply. We have been as affected by the frost as South Australia.”- Jono Fenwick, Elders senior agronomist, Echuca. 

“ The Horsham official forecast predicts 20mm for August, and 5mm for September, and staying cool, with a few more frosts.

“These ratings are on the assumption of ‘average’ spring rainfall which would be occurring at grain fill timing and be extremely valuable. I have seen several crops of wheat which I doubt will be harvested, Willenabrina area particularly. Lentils are short, beans have never got going. Canola has recovered remarkably but won’t exceed average. Most cereals look okay but 4 tonne probably the upside.

“Best area is south of Warracknabeal which won the storm lotto around 15 April, receiving 45 to 70mm, which most of the Wimmera missed out on. All this depends on forecast rain next week – soils are dry.”- Mick Preston, Elders rural products sales manager, Horsham.

“Cereals growth stage range between flag -1 to ear emergence and will commence flowering soon.

“Cereal disease levels are low to moderate. Minor septoria tritici detected in lower canopies from drier winter conditions.  Moderate stripe rust levels in wheat (only about 20 per cent of wheat varieties grown are highly susceptible).

“Planet barley is the main variety grown with high levels net blotch net form. Most cereals have received 1 to 2 fungicide treatments. Majority of crops at this stage will go to harvest.

“Pulse crops especially faba beans are very average. Only those sown early to mid April look okay. The western district has missed recent frost events. On Sunday it reached -2 degrees[Equation] in parts. Cereals should be okay, but canola could have some damage. September rainfall month to date was approximately 20 to 30 mm which improved crop ratings.

“Pastures and crops are on knifes edge with no sub soil moisture. Pastures are well behind spring growth rates with additional fertiliser being applied to boost as much hay as possible. Summer forage brassicas have been sown four weeks earlier than normal.”- Mick Walsh, Elders agronomist, Ballarat.

Below is a summary of the September crop condition report completed by Elders district agronomists for the Vic/Riverina region, showing percentage of crop rated either very poor, poor etc and comparing the August rating.