Winter crops have commenced sowing in some parts of the country, with autumn rain potential and pests top of mind for all.
Read on for more on local conditions from our Technical Services Managers and catch up on the latest grain price movements from CGX.
From the field
"With some rain through the Wheatbelt in WA, the confidence is increasing for the upcoming winter cropping season.
Many growers are still conservative after last year and commodity prices are at or below the levels that might change sowing plans at this stage. Confidence has grown with the return of China into the barley market, allowing growers who have traditionally grown the crop to continue with plans.
For canola plantings, we have received some rain, which is welcoming. Growers will require more through early Autumn to ensure we have enough to allow an early sowing window. Growers are now receiving their seed and fertiliser to allow them to start at the first genuine opportunity.
A long dry hot summer has set many farms up for a clean start to this season. Very little summer spraying has occurred. This has allowed growers to have product on hand for the pre-sowing knockdowns. Unfortunately, growers in the north and eastern Wheatbelt who rely on moisture retention in fallow paddocks won’t have their usual benefit due to the dry finish last year.”
Bill Moore, Elders Technical Services Manager, Western Australia.
“January has once again seen large areas of NSW receiving decent rainfall events for the month. These events have been isolated to some degree but have transformed both dryland cotton and summer forage crops combined with the increase in daytime temperatures is leading towards high yields.
“On the back of these rainfall events, insect and weed pressures are evident in many situations. Summer grasses and broadleaf weeds became a topic on most grower lips as expected due to limited chemical options on the back of herbicide production issues. Although not all fallow paddocks have been sprayed, most paddocks have now been sprayed to reduce seed set and moisture loss. Reports of Silverleaf White Fly, Mirids and Heliothis activity in cotton crops and summer forage crops including Maize. Weekly monitoring has been carried out since December and continuing based on current conditions.
“While irrigated crops thrive, some dryland crops are heat stressed from a run of days over 38 degrees. This pattern is continuing and is having an impact on fallow spraying. Weeds are stressed, along with non-optimal conditions for spraying. These include gusty wind conditions mid-morning across many regions, are some of the challenges been faced right now.
“The upside to these rainfall events is most growers are planning on a winter forage crop or pastures considering the soil moisture profiles. This demand has seen strong ordering by growers of forage oats and other cereals with this demand been felt right across the industry.
“This demand has placed forage oats and many winter cereals in a sold-out position. This has then had a flow-on effect to annual and Italian ryegrass supply and other winter options including clovers and herbs. Lucerne supply was under pressure, but a reduction in overseas demand, has seen large amounts of Lucerne available to purchase, back into the Australia market.
“The wharf issues have also had an impact on pasture supply with containers held up on the docks for a long period of time and logistics issues still impacting the ag industry in 2024. Although the containers are still coming, the actual timeline for delivery is of concern.
“Canola is in a positive situation with most companies having product to sell into a market. The usual popular and some new varieties are in a sold-out position, but there are plenty of options out in the market.”
Adam Little, Elders Technical Services Manager, New South Wales.
"For summer cropping areas, after an unusually cool start the crops have enjoyed good growing conditions for the back end of summer and yield prospects are looking positive. The warm, dry conditions should assist with management of cotton defoliation and picking should this continue. This also assist with bringing in rice and maize crops for harvest.
"Confidence in winter cropping areas has generally been boosted by summer rainfall and potentially full soil moisture profiles. Keeping up with summer fallow sprays has been the main focus. The lack of rain in recent weeks has dried out surface moisture and helped to bring weed germinations to a halt. Agronomists are extremely busy organising farm plans and inputs ready to take advantage of any early seeding opportunities.
"Grain prices have fallen over recent months and has growers reassessing cropping program mixes but in general most will be sticking to their standard rotations. While volatility remains in the fertiliser market, farmers have been on the front foot with organising planting fertilisers to avoid hold ups and supply issues seen last season. Soil testing has remained a big focus currently to assess soil fertility levels given a run of good seasons and large removal of nutrients in grain."
Craig Farlow, Elders Technical Services Manager, Victoria and Riverina.
Price disparity a challenge in current market
Nathan Cattle, Managing Director for Clear Grain Exchange shares his thoughts on the current grain market and what’s been happening on the exchange.
Price discovery for many grades of grain is proving challenging with large fluctuations in published bids and traded prices across port zones week-to-week.
For example, ASW1 wheat traded $402/t in Kwinana port zone the week before last, and then traded $380/t a week later (last week) through Clear Grain Exchange.
Best published bids collected by sources including Profarmer and DailyGrain were $375/t and $365/t respectively on the same days (refer chart below).
If you extrapolate this out across the total spectrum of grades and locations across Australia that can trade on Clear Grain Exchange, there's been similar high levels of price disparity.
That's challenging for market participants trying to figure out the value of grain.
So what can growers control in this market?
Northern hemisphere crops will soon be entering the critical spring period meaning weather forecasts and crop conditions will influence the direction of the market in coming months.
The world is not abundant with wheat, or grain generally for that matter, and will need reasonable crops this year to satisfy demand.
Northern hemisphere spring crops are still to be planted and include higher protein wheats, corn, barley, canola, soybeans and other smaller crops like oats and pulses.
The market appears to be banking on good growing conditions in the northern hemsiphere spring producing good sized crops.
However with most of the northern hemisphere growing season ahead of us, there remains potential for adverse weather to hamper crop production and it’s not unusual to see some price volatility during this period.
Some grades and locations in Australia appeared to have found a price level to trade last week, particularly for grain stored on-farm with igrain trading some volume.
30 buyers purchased 22 grades of wheat, barley, canola, lentils, oats and sorghum through the exchange across 12 port zones in all the major grain growing states of Australia last week.
Plenty of buyers are actively searching, bidding, and purchasing grain offered for sale despite the recent weakness in published bids.
For growers with grain either on-farm or in warehouse, the way to send your price signal and discover it's true value is by offering it for sale to all buyers.
If your grain is not on OFFER at the price you want, it can't sell. Buyers need to see your grain to crunch their numbers and try to buy it.
Remember, you're anonymous and protected by secure settlement if your grain sells through Clear Grain Exchange (CGX), and your grain can only sell at, or above, the price you offer it for sale.
It costs nothing to offer your grain for sale on CGX. If you use CGX correctly it can only add value to your business.
Many growers are also planning their sales and cashflow through the year with many opting to offer grain for sale in future delivery months such as July 2024 which can line-up with buyer demand.
Login to your CGX or igrain accounts to see more price information and what’s traded.
30 buyer businesses purchased grain through Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) last week. There are plenty of buyers that can buy your grain. When looking to sell, ensure you offer your grain for sale rather than selling into published bids.
Market indicators
Table shows best published bids and actual traded grain prices from Clear Grain Exchange. Sources - Clear Grain Exchange
Want to control the selling price of your grain?
Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) is a secure and independent online exchange that allows you to set a price for your grain and market to all buyers.
It’s free to register and offer your grain at your price, pay nothing until your grain is sold.
To register or find our more contact click here or call 1800 000 410
“The best thing about CGX is you set your own price. I sell wheat and barley through CGX and usually achieve above the market value as advertised in the current market”
Jeff Burgess, grain grower, South Australia
Learn more about Jeff's experience with Clear Grain Exchange.
The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only, and while Elders has exercised reasonable care, skill and diligence in its preparation, many factors (including environmental and seasonal) can impact its accuracy and currency. Accordingly, the information should not be relied upon under any circumstances and Elders assumes no liability for any loss consequently suffered. If you would like to speak to someone for tailored advice relating to any of the matters referred to in this article, please contact Elders.
Read previous reports
Cropping update - February 2024
Cropping update - January 2024